2009 ACC Fearless Predictions
Week 10 ... Nov. 7 Games
Atlantic
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Boston College |
Clemson |
Florida
State |
Maryland |
NC
State |
Wake
Forest
Coastal
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Duke
| Georgia
Tech |
Miami
| North
Carolina |
Virginia |
Virginia Tech
ACC Fearless Predictions
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Week 10,
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Game of the Week
Florida State (4-4) at Clemson (5-3),7:45 EST, ESPN, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Does anyone want to win the ACC Atlantic? Florida State and Clemson will weigh in on that question this Saturday in front of a national TV audience. The winner remains in the hunt alongside Boston College, while the loser is in big trouble, especially if it’s the Seminoles. The ‘Noles stayed alive and climbed back to .500 with last Saturday’s shootout victory over NC State in the final minutes. The Tigers have done some rebounding of their own lately, bouncing back from an inexcusable loss to Maryland on Oct. 3 to win three straight over Wake Forest, Miami, and Coastal Carolina. Playing as well as it has all season, Clemson can take the division with three more victories before the annual battle with South Carolina. Of the league games, this is going to be the biggest hurdle to a trip to Tampa in December.
Why Florida State might win: All bets are off if QB Christian Ponder’s ribs are still aching this weekend. The ‘Noles need their quarterback to be healthy enough to distribute the ball to his playmakers. No. 3 nationally in total offense, he’s the reason why five different Florida State receivers have caught at least 25 passes. He’s also making life easier on the running game, specifically Jermaine Thomas, who ripped off a career-high 186 yards and two scores in the NC State win. Only two ACC schools have turned the ball over more than Clemson, a problem that could tilt the scales in the Seminoles’ favor.
Why Clemson might win: Sure, Florida State has been piling up the points and yards, but it hasn’t faced a defense as nasty as Clemson’s all year. The Tigers are allowing just 16 points a game and have been ruthless in pass defense, the Seminoles’ preferred method of travel. Opponents are completing less than 50% of their passes, contending with outside pressure from ends Ricky Sapp and Da’Quan Bowers, and an oppressive secondary led by S DeAndre McDaniel and corners Chris Chancellor and Crezdon Butler. McDaniel leads the nation with seven picks and the team with 60 tackles. The way Clemson flies to the ball, Florida State will not have the same success it grew accustomed to in October.
Who to watch: The Florida State record is improving. The defense is not. The ‘Noles remain last in the ACC in run defense, pass defense, and scoring defense, one of the great head-scratchers of 2009. If ever there was a game that Clemson RB C.J. Spiller was going to showcase his multi-dimensional talents to the nation, this is it. A game-breaker as a back, receiver, and kickoff returner, don’t be surprised if he has multiple plays of at least 50 yards on this night.
What will happen: Like so many ACC games over the past few weeks, this one has the ingredients to be, at a minimum, extremely entertaining. Ponder should play and play well, but that Florida State defense is an Achilles’ heel that just keeps on aching. Now that QB Kyle Parker has started to operate with more confidence, the Clemson attack is a little more potent and unpredictable. Still, this night will be all about Spiller, who could thrust his name into the Heisman discussion with a couple hundred all-purpose yards and two electrifying touchdowns.
CFN Prediction: Clemson 35 … Florida State 30 ... Line: Clemson -8.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 3.5
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Virginia Tech (5-3) at East Carolina (5-3),7:30 EST, ESPN, Thursday, November 5
Why to watch: When North Carolina PK Casey Barth nailed a chip shot in the final seconds of last Thursday’s game, it put an unofficial end to Virginia Tech’s quest for a third straight ACC title. In less than two weeks, the Hokies have gone from a fringe national championship contender to the BCS scrap heap. Losers of two consecutive nail-biters to the Heels and Georgia Tech, the program is in the unfamiliar position of playing in November without a whole lot at stake. This is an odd spot for East Carolina to be hosting a name brand program. Last September, the Pirates shocked the Hokies, but that was in the opener. This time around, ECU will have to temporarily shift its focus away from Conference USA and an East Division race it currently leads.
Why Virginia Tech might win: For the first time all season, the East Carolina offense displayed a pulse in recent routs of Memphis and Rice. Virginia Tech is neither Memphis nor Rice. The Hokies boast one of the ACC’s best defenses, holding opponents to less than 20 points a game and ranking in the top 10 nationally in pass efficiency defense. Erratic Pirate QB Patrick Pinkney will get stonewalled by a unit that’ll bring outside pressure from ends Nekos Brown and Jason Worilds, and lockdown his receivers with the help of corners Stephan Virgil and Rashad Carmichael. East Carolina doesn’t have the playmakers on offense to keep drives going on this fast and fundamentally sound Hokie D.
Why East Carolina might win: No, the Pirates won’t score many points on Thursday, but it’s not as if it’ll need 30 to beat the Hokies. Tech has been sporadic all year with the ball, managing just 40 points in the back-to-back losses. While efficient, Tyrod Taylor hardly frightens opposing defenses as a passer, which will allow East Carolina to crowd the box in order to stop the run. It has an ACC-caliber defensive line that matches well with a vulnerable Virginia Tech front wall. Tackles Linval Joseph and Jay Ross are space-eaters on the inside, and DE C.J. Wilson has the quickness to flush Taylor from the pocket. The Pirates are yielding just 108 yards a game on the ground, which addresses the Hokies’ primary offensive strength.
Who to watch: How well will Virginia Tech RB Ryan Williams rebound from his costly fumble, which set up Carolina for the game-winning field goal? While he’s had a brilliant debut season, he’s also just a freshman and has taken the turnover extremely hard. The school needs him to have a short memory in order to avoid a third loss in-a-row. If East Carolina’s Dominique Lindsay outplays Williams on Thursday, the Hokies will be in big trouble.
What will happen: Virginia Tech is vulnerable, especially since its motivation for this game will not be sky-high. Frank Beamer, Bud Foster, and the rest of the staff will have to dig deep in order to keep their kids focused and energized. It won’t be easy, but the Hokies will find a way to snap the two-game skid, riding the backs of the defense and Williams, who’ll operate with a chip on his shoulder. Unless the Pirates get a lot of help from its own defense or special teamer Dwayne Harris, they’ll hard a rugged time putting points on the board.
CFN Prediction: Virginia Tech 24 … East Carolina 17 ... Line: Virginia Tech -11.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Virginia (3-5) at Miami (6-2),12:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Thanks to one huge drive engineered by QB Jacory Harris, all of Miami’s 2009 goals remain in play...sort of. The Hurricanes still trail Georgia Tech by a full game in the Coastal Division, but won the head-to-head match up and, with some help, could get right back in the hunt. Certainly a second straight close loss would have completely changed the trajectory of their season. Plus, at No. 17 in the latest rankings, there’s still an outside chance that four more wins can be parlayed into an at-large BCS bowl berth. With a loss to Duke on Saturday, Virginia’s postseason hopes appear to be fading. It’s been a typical season in Charlottesville, with the Cavaliers getting off the mat with three consecutive wins, only to slump when it mattered most. Now two games below .500, there’s a stench of apathy surrounding the program that can’t be good for head coach Al Groh’s future.
Why Virginia might win: Throughout all of the ups and downs in ‘Hooville, the closest thing to a constant has been the play of the defense. The Cavaliers have been steady, especially in pass defense, ranking No. 19 nationally and allowing just four touchdown passes all year. The talented secondary, led by CB Ras-I Dowling and S Rodney McLeod, has the speed and athleticism to match up well with Harris’ big-play receivers. If Virginia can once again disrupt the passing game, Miami will be forced to rely more than it prefers on the nation’s 95th-ranked ground game.
Why Miami might win: If the Virginia offense already has one foot in the offseason, how does it possibly navigate the athletic, pursuing Hurricane defense? It’s not as if the ‘Canes have been air-tight this fall, but the Cavs are awful, averaging a league-worst 277 yards and 21 points a game. With neither a ground game nor a passing attack to count on, it’ll be at the mercy of DE Allen Bailey, LB Colin McCarthy, CB Brandon Harris, and the rest of a hungry Miami D. After springing leaks over the past two weekends, the ‘Canes are determined to take out a mess of frustration on an outmanned opponent.
Who to watch: It’s been a long road to get to this point, but Miami WR Aldarius Johnson has begun showing signs of tapping into his pre-injury form. On the shelf for much of the early part of the season, the Hurricane receiver with the biggest frame and biggest upside is rounding into shape, catching three balls for 74 yards and his first touchdown a week ago. A full-strength Johnson, along with Travis Benjamin and Leonard Hankerson, gives Harris a dangerous collection of wideouts to exploit.
What will happen: Miami’s last two games have been nail-biters. This one will not be. While the ‘Canes feel emboldened by last week’s last minute win, it looks as if the air has come out of Virginia’s October run. Miami won’t have any problems with the feeble Cavalier offense, while riding the right arm of Harris to a comfortable win.
CFN Prediction: Miami 30 … Virginia 13 ... Line: Miami -13.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 10,
Part 2 (Duke at North Carolina, & more)