2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 10 ... Nov. 7 Games
Cincinnati
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Connecticut
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Louisville
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Pittsburgh
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Rutgers
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South
Florida |
Syracuse
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West
Virginia
Big East Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
Connecticut (4-4) at Cincinnati (8-0),8:00 EST, ABC, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: And the beat goes on at Cincinnati. More than two weeks after losing star QB Tony Pike to a wrist injury, the Bearcats haven’t veered off course, defeating Louisville and Syracuse to remain one of the nation’s seven unbeaten teams. Saturday’s 28-7 win in the Carrier Dome is the program’s last road trip until the regular season finale in Pittsburgh. The three-game homestand that begins this week in primetime will dictate the significance of that Dec. 5 trip to Western Pennsylvania. Connecticut’s hard-luck tendencies show no signs of letting up after it lost to Rutgers in the final seconds and for the fourth time by four points or fewer. It was the second straight week the Huskies sprung a leak on defense in the waning moments, allowing a game-winning burst of at least 50 yards. Now 4-4 and 1-3 in league play, they’re in danger of missing the postseason for the first time since 2006.
Why Connecticut might win: The Huskies’ best bet for the upset requires a big game from Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon, the best backfield tandem in the Big East. The pair has combined for 1,367 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, which has had a tendency to wear out defenses and keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. On defense, Connecticut may not be star-studded, but it has enough solid players in the front seven, like DE Lindsey Witten and LB Lawrence Wilson, to keep Cincinnati from running away and hiding.
Why Cincinnati might win: While the Bearcats not be better without Pike, they sure have remained potent and in some respects more dangerous. Not only has Zach Collaros thrown seven touchdown passes without a pick, but he also brings an element of athleticism to the quarterback position. Connecticut has shown hints of vulnerability in pass defense, which will be exploited by the super sub and his top receivers, Mardy Gilyard and Armon Binns. The opportunistic and vastly underrated Bearcat D ought to feast on the Huskies’ shaky quarterback situation. It leads the nation in tackles for loss and is No. 3 in turnover margin, bad news for one-dimensional offenses.
Who to watch: With Gilyard getting so much attention from opposing defensive backs, Binns has had more room and a clearer path to making big plays. A physically imposing 6-4, 200-pounder from Pasadena (Calif.) of all places, he’s excelled in his first extensive opportunity as a Bearcat. An ideal complement in the passing game, he’s caught 34 balls for 523 yards and six touchdowns, including one in each of the last four games.
What will happen: It’s showtime in the Queen City, and Cincinnati will not pass up an opportunity to strut in front of a curious and unusually large viewing audience. Ten quarters have been enough evidence to know that Collaros is no fluke as the successor to Pike, deftly running the offense and getting the ball in the hands of his playmakers. Cincinnati will feed off the energy of the Nippert Stadium crowd, building an early lead and then shutting down Connecticut’s comeback bid.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 31 … Connecticut 14 ... Line: Cincinnati -12
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 3
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Syracuse (3-5) at Pittsburgh (7-1),12:00 EST, ESPNU, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Off to its best start in a quarter-century, Pittsburgh will look to remain hot after getting a well-deserved week away from the field. One of just two Big East schools without a conference loss, the Panthers need to remain focused on the task at hand this weekend. After this Saturday’s visit from Syracuse, Pitt will play much higher-profile games with Notre Dame, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. The Orange, though respectable throughout the year, may have peaked with its 28-14 win over Akron two weeks ago. Simply overmatched in recent conference bouts with Cincinnati, West Virginia, and South Florida, the program and first-year head coach Doug Marrone continues to use this campaign as a learning process and a stepping stone for 2010.
Why Syracuse might win: If you can stop Dion Lewis and the ground game, you’ve got a shot to really frustrate the Pittsburgh offense. The Orange has the type of defense to get it done. Seventh nationally and tops in the Big East versus the run, Syracuse is capable of neutralizing the balance and diversity that’s helped make the Panthers so successful this season. In the middle of the defense are a couple of stalwarts, NT Arthur Jones and LB Derrell Smith, who leads the team in tackles, tackles for loss, and sacks.
Why Pittsburgh might win: Can Syracuse score enough points to deliver the biggest upset of the year in the league? It won’t be easy. The Orange ranks last in the Big East in total offense and is averaging only 13 points in conference games. Pitt, on the other hand, leads the nation in sacks and has yielded more than 21 points just twice all year. The front line, consisting of DT Mick Williams and ends Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard, will get after QB Greg Paulus and close off running lanes for Delone Carter. Plus, Panther LB Adam Gunn and S Dom DeCicco have too much speed and range for the plodding Syracuse attack.
Who to watch: Neither school has been air-tight in pass defense this season, which should creates openings for Orange WR Mike Williams and Panther WR Jonathan Baldwin to make big plays downfield. Baldwin is a budding star, averaging more than 20 yards a reception in his second season on campus. Williams might be the Big East’s best overall pass-catcher, making 49 grabs for 746 yards and six touchdowns despite frequent double-teams.
What will happen: Syracuse might slow Lewis down for a while, but it won’t totally stop the freshman sensation. Few have. Although it might take a few more carries than usual, he’ll make it four straight weeks of at least 100 yards, adding a couple of touchdown runs. Bill Stull will contribute his usual 200 yards and pair of scoring strikes, which will be more than enough to outscore the Orange.
CFN Prediction: Pittsburgh 31 … Syracuse 13 ... Line: Pitt -20.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2
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Louisville (3-5) at West Virginia (6-2),12:00 EST, ESPN Gameplan, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Although West Virginia’s quest for a Big East championship took a hit in Tampa last Friday night, it’s by no means out of the hunt. Yeah, losing to South Florida, 30-19, means any margin for error has evaporated, but the Mountaineers still have head-to-head battles looming with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the last remaining schools unbeaten in conference games. Before then, however, they first need to rebound beginning with this week’s visit from Louisville. The Cardinals had to dig deep into the roster to defeat Arkansas State on Saturday, using third-stringer Will Stein behind center. Physically and emotionally, this is a beleaguered program that’s still looking for its first league victory of the season.
Why Louisville might win: When West Virginia has struggled this fall, it’s been because of turnovers and a leaky pass defense. At Auburn in September, the Mountaineers allowed four touchdowns passes and gave it away six times. On Friday at South Florida, they yielded three touchdown passes to B.J. Daniels. Whoever gets the ball from Steve Kragthorpe will look to attack that ‘eer secondary, with help from TE Cameron Graham and receivers Scott Long and Doug Beaumont. If West Virginia is careless with the ball, it’ll be vulnerable against any opponent.
Why West Virginia might win: The only time this season that Louisville has given up less 30 points, the other team came from the FCS, the Sun Belt, or Conference USA. The Cards house a bad defense that can’t get to the quarterback and is 110th nationally in pass efficiency defense. This is one of those games that the Mountaineers will look to unleash all of their weapons before the pivotal stretch run. That means plenty of highlight reel moments for RB Noel Devine and a chance for QB Jarrett Brown to get back on track after a succession of ho-hum performances.
Who to watch: Brown’s struggles have also meant fewer opportunities for big-play receivers Jock Sanders and Alric Arnett to, well, make big plays. Sanders had just two catches for 21 yards in last week’s loss to South Florida. Arnett caught six passes, but has reached the end zone just once in the last six games. While Devine remains the fulcrum of the West Virginia offense, he’d be helped if more playmakers were allowed to get into the action. It’s incumbent upon Brown to start getting the ball in the hands of Sanders and Arnett with more regularity before it’s too late.
What will happen: West Virginia just hasn’t looked right over the last three games, executing poorly even when it wins. Louisville presents an opportunity to get right, at least for one weekend. The Mountaineers will shut down the Cardinal ground game, shining an even brighter spotlight on the team’s problems behind center. Devine will lead the way on offense, jetting for 150 yards and a couple of touchdowns against a pedestrian Louisville D.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 35 … Louisville 10 ... Line: West Virginia -19.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2
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