2009 Big Ten Fearless Predictions
Week 10 ... Nov. 7 Games, Part 2
Illinois |
Indiana
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Iowa
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Michigan
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Michigan
State
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Minnesota
Northwestern
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Ohio State
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Penn State
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Purdue
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Wisconsin
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10, Part 1
Purdue (3-6) at Michigan (5-4), 12:00 EST, Saturday, November 7, Big 10 Network
Why to watch: It’s danger time for both teams, even though the Wolverines are in a much better spot to get to a bowl game. Purdue was riding high after beating Ohio State and Illinois at home and was looking to make a big statement against Wisconsin. One 37-0 loss later, complete with several dropped passes and missed opportunities, now there’s no margin for error to get to a bowl game. However, the last three games are winnable, with Michigan State coming up next week before the regular-season ender at Indiana to follow. For Michigan, the bottom has dropped out after a promising start to the season. An embarrassing 63-6 win over Delaware State aside, the Wolverines have been hovering between lousy and miserable over the last several weeks, struggling to get by Indiana in September for their last win over a BCS school before losing to Michigan State in overtime (after doing nothing until the final moments), losing to Iowa, thanks to a late pick on a drive that just needed a field goal to force overtime, and with ugly losses to Penn State and Illinois. Getting blown out at home by the Nittany Lions is one thing, but the loss to the lowly Illini has Wolverine fans grumbling about Rich Rodriguez again. It might be now or never for a bowl game with at Wisconsin and Ohio State up next. Lose here, stay home for the holidays, and stew in another ugly offseason.
Why Purdue might win: The Michigan offense has decided to take a little nap. This is still the Big Ten’s leading rushing attack, helped by the production from the quarterbacks and nice years from Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor, but the Wolverines have stopped scoring, coming up with 23 points in the last two weeks, and the defense got its doors blown off over the last few weeks. Michigan has given up 30 points or more in four of the last five Big Ten games, and if you throw in Notre Dame, only Michigan State in a 26-20 overtime win scored fewer than 33 among the BCS teams on the schedule. Purdue hasn’t scored more than 26 points in any of its last seven games, but the offense has the firepower to come up with some big numbers through the air if …
Why Michigan might win: … the receivers hold on to the ball. Purdue isn’t playing all that poorly overall, but it shoots itself in the foot time and again with strange mistakes and missed opportunities. From nine dropped passes (yes, nine) against Wisconsin, to the turnovers, giving away 26 so far, this is far from a tight team. As much as the Michigan defense is struggling, and for all the problems generating points at the moment, the line is getting into the backfield and making plays against the run … sometimes. Teams with good running attacks have been producing, but if the Wolverines can be disruptive, the takeaways will start flowing.
Who to watch: What has happened to Ralph Bolden? The Purdue running back tore it up over the first few weeks of the season with 234 yards and two touchdowns against Toledo and 123 yards and two scores against Oregon, and then the carries slowed down even though his numbers haven’t been bad. He produces when he gets the chance with touchdown runs in all three games he had 20 carries or more, and he’s an effective receiver out of the backfield. However, the offense has worked more around Joey Elliott and the passing game over the last month. Against Michigan, Purdue needs to establish the run and stick with it. Bolden is a gamebreaker who could have a monster day if he gets the work.
What will happen: Purdue isn’t playing at a high level, but it’s playing far better than Michigan. You don’t lose to that Illinois team that badly and suddenly turn everything back around. The Maize and Blue freefall continues, but it’ll be an entertaining game.
CFN Prediction: Purdue 27 … Michigan 24 ... Line: Michigan -4
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2.5
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Northwestern (5-4) at Iowa (9-0) , 12:00 EST, Saturday, November 7, ESPN
Why to watch: What’s Iowa going to do to make this week interesting? Play awful and need a miraculous drive with a touchdown pass with no time left on the clock to get the win? The Hawkeyes did that against Michigan State two weeks ago. Throw five interceptions and lose a fumble on a punt before scoring 28 points in the fourth quarter to survive? They did that against Indiana last week. You name the way to win a game and Iowa has probably done it, and while it’s 9-0 and on a 13-game winning streak, there’s a very, very skeptical public that hasn’t jumped on the national title bandwagon. It’ll be tempting to look ahead to the showdown at Ohio State next week, but the team has shown it can’t look past anyone. The Wildcats played Penn State well for about three quarters last week before losing QB Mike Kafka to a hamstring injury and the run defense gave up some big plays, and they could use a win in a big way with at trip to Illinois a wild-card next week before finishing up with Wisconsin. At 5-4, they need to be 7-5 to be assured of a bowl game. This is just quirky enough of a team to pull off the big win, and Iowa needs to bring its A game to avoid another close call.
Why Northwestern might win: The Wildcat run defense should shut down the Hawkeye ground game. Iowa keeps on rolling out running backs, and the offensive line is doing a good job of paving the way, but the Wildcats are doing a good job of stopping the run and they’re not that bad at getting to the quarterback. The passing attack is good enough to push the ball on the Iowa secondary that hasn’t been tested on a regular basis, playing a few teams that could throw well giving up 225 yards to Michigan State and 227 yards to Indiana. Kafka, who’s expected to play, leads a passing attack that’s averaging 268 yards per game and will keep the heat on all game long.
Why Iowa might win: Ricky Stanzi should come up with a big game, and not just because the running game is without Adam Robinson. The Wildcat secondary has been fine, but nothing special, and should be carved up for at least 250 yards. Iowa is winning by doing all the little things well, and in this game it should be the punting that makes a big difference. Ryan Donohue leads a punting game that’s averaging 38 yards net, good for 23rd in the nation, while the Wildcats are 108th in punting and don’t get much of anything from the return game. Defensively, the Hawkeye front line has been fantastic all season long and while it might have a few problems getting to Kafka, it should stop the Northwestern ground game cold.
Who to watch: This one’s on Kafka. The Northwestern senior has come through with a fantastic senior season throwing nine touchdown passes, and while he threw three picks against Indiana two weeks ago, he made up for them by pulling out the comeback win. He said he’s fine and ready to go after leaving the Penn State game with a leg problem, but when he was in, he completed 14-of-18 passes for 128 yards, and ran for 42 yards and a score, against the vaunted Nittany Lion D. He needs to be terrific for the Wildcats to win, and he just might be. For Iowa, the ground game will continue to turn to Brandon Wegher, the freshman who came up with a huge performance against Indiana, running 25 times for 118 yards and three scores. The O line is doing the job, and Wegher, playing in place of Adam Robinson, should come up with another nice game.
What will happen: Northwestern will have a lead and will start to look like it can pull off the upset, and then Iowa will go on a second half scoring run to get the hype machine going for the Ohio State game.
CFN Prediction: Iowa 27 … Northwestern 13 ... Line: Iowa -17.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 3
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Illinois (2-6) at Minnesota (5-4) , 12:00 EST, Saturday, November 7, Big 10 Network
Why to watch: Good luck trying to figure out these two. Minnesota was dead in the water after two miserable performances in losses to Penn State and Ohio State by a combined score of 58 to 7. With the loss of WR Eric Decker, arguably the best offensive player in the Big Ten over the first part of the season, it seemed like the season was in the tank. And then came a stunning 42-34 win over Michigan State with the passing game going ballistic, helped by a goofy highlight reel play for a score, and all of a sudden there’s a shot to finish in the top five in the final Big Ten standings. The regular season ender is at Iowa, and next week should be a win over South Dakota State (but it will be a dangerous trap game), so this will likely be the team’s last chance at making any sort of a statement. For Illinois, this game is what needs to be a step in what might be the wildest in-season turnaround in recent Big Ten memory. One blowout win over a bad Michigan team shouldn’t be cause for celebration, but considering the Illini’s only other win came against Illinois State, it was a really big deal. If Ron Zook’s club can pull off the victory in TCF Bank Stadium, then things get interesting with Northwestern coming to Champaign before finishing off the year at Cincinnati and against Fresno State.
Why Illinois might win: So what did Illinois do differently against Michigan that it didn’t do the rest of the year? It ran the ball, and it ran the ball well. For the first time all season long, the offensive line came up with a strong performance blasting away for 377 rushing yards and four scores. Finally, Juice Williams starting running effectively while Mikel LeShoure tore off 150 yards and Jason Ford ran for 128. Minnesota’s run defense hasn’t been miserable, but it has had problems at times allowing 163 yards and five touchdowns on the ground to Jahvid Best’s Cal Bears, got pounded on for 295 yards and three scores by Wisconsin, and had problems with Terrelle Pryor and the Ohio State running game allowing 270 yards and three touchdowns. Illinois, if it gets the same consistency up front that it had last week, should have no problems hitting the 200-yard mark against a mediocre Gopher D line.
Why Minnesota might win: Michigan sucks right now. Yeah, Illinois looked great and its performance last week was shockingly good, but that’s a bad Wolverine defense that got ripped to shreds. Michigan can’t throw the ball a lick at the moment and Illinois was able to hide its poor pass defense while the lack of a pass rush didn’t matter all that much. This is a one-dimensional Illinois team with no passing game to scare anyone, and Minnesota has already faced mobile quarterbacks and dangerous ground games like Air Force’s and Ohio State’s. The Illinois running attack isn’t as good as either of those two. All it will take is a little positive momentum early on for the Gophers and Illinois will go into the tank.
Who to watch: Illinois RB Mikel LeShoure has always had the potential to be great, he fits what the offense needs, but he was too heavy last year, not productive enough early on this year, and he didn’t do enough overall to see time. But over the last three weeks, he has stepped out and looked like a player to build the ground game around with 350 yards over the last three games and averaging 7.3 yards per carry. For Minnesota, with Decker out, the offense has fallen on the shoulders of junior QB Adam Weber as he has needed to do even more to pump life into a dying attack. He did that and then some last week throwing for 416 yards and five touchdowns against the Michigan State secondary, and he produced by spreading the ball around and utilizing his backs, primarily Duane Bennett, to keep things moving.
What will happen: It was a one week aberration. Illinois will come out and play like Illinois again, and while Minnesota won’t be great, it won’t have to be.
CFN Prediction: Minnesota 30 … Illinois 17 ... Line: Minnesota -6
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2.5
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10, Part 1