2009 Pac 10 Fearless Predictions
Week 10 ... Nov. 7 Games, Part 2
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Arizona
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Arizona St
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California
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Oregon
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Oregon St
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Stanford |
UCLA
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USC |
Washington
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Washington St
Pac 10 Fearless Predictions
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10, Part 1
Oregon State (5-3) at California (6-2),7:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: While neither Oregon State nor Cal is thinking Rose Bowl at this stage of the season, both schools are determined to improve their bowl destination when they meet in Berkeley. The Beavers played well in October, beating Arizona State, Stanford, and UCLA, and giving USC all it could handle in Los Angeles. A win would guarantee the school a postseason bid for the fourth consecutive year. Although no one appears to be paying attention outside Strawberry Canyon, the Bears are playing their best ball of the season, winning three straight over UCLA, Washington State, and Arizona State. The win in Tempe wasn’t without its frightful moments, but this weekend’s visit from Oregon State will be Cal’s toughest test since getting humbled by Oregon and USC. Jahvid Best vs. Jacquizz Rodgers is one of the best running back battles you’ll see all season.
Why Oregon State might win: While the defense has acclimated poorly to numerous offseason changes, the offense has carried the baton in Corvallis. Not only has Rodgers averaged 115 yards a game, but QB Sean Canfield is enjoying the best season of his career, ranking third in the league in passing efficiency. Oregon State is putting up close to 30 points a game, which presents problems for a Cal defense that’s only tightened the screws after the level of competition dipped considerably. The Bears are 115th nationally in pass defense, which should open things up for Canfield and top receivers James Rodgers and Damola Adeniji.
Why Cal might win: Ever since QB Kevin Riley started playing with more consistency, the Bears have been a totally different team on offense. His ability to spread defenses out and get the ball to athletic WR Marvin Jones have opened the field for Best and Shane Vereen to bust through seams and quickly get to the second level of the defense. In turn, Cal has put up 117 points over the last three games. Oregon State hasn’t stopped anyone through the air this year, failing to generate much pressure or prevent the big play. If Riley has time to throw and the backs have room to roam, Cal will move up and down the field without much resistance.
Who to watch: The Bear linebackers will be the key to stopping Rodgers, especially when he takes snaps in the “Wild Beaver” formation. That’ll make for a busy night for Mike Mohamed and Mychal Kendricks, who’ve performed well in the most significant action of their careers. Both have outstanding range and sideline-to-sideline quickness, combining for 124 tackles and eight stops behind the line. When Rodgers is allowed to dictate the tempo of the game, he can be maddening for opposing defenses.
What will happen: This game has all the makings of a high-scoring classic that doesn’t get decided until the final minutes. Cal and Oregon State are a couple of evenly-matched programs, with question marks on defense and stars in the backfield. Does anyone believe the Beavers will be unnerved by this trip to Northern California? They won’t. In fact, they’ll win behind the dynamic play of Rodgers, who’ll go for 200 total yards and outplay Best in a mild upset.
CFN Prediction: Oregon State 34 … Cal 31 ... Line: Cal -7
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats
1) … 3
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USC (6-2) at Arizona State (4-4),8:00 EST, ABC, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: A week removed from the lopsided 47-20 loss at Oregon, USC is about to enter uncharted waters. For the first time in nearly a decade, the program will play November games, knowing they’ll have no impact on the Rose Bowl race. How will this roster of former blue-chip recruits and high school All-Americans react to a lowered bar and a smaller carrot? It’ll be an interesting testament to Pete Carroll’s ability to motivate. Do not, however, rule Troy completely out of the BCS bowl picture. At 10-2, it would still make an inviting option as an at-large invitee. Arizona State’s next win over a quality opponent will be its first of 2009. The Sun Devils, having feasted on the softer part of the schedule, are at a crossroads in the season and are trying to rebound from back-to-back losses to Stanford and Cal. With a trip to Oregon up next, Dennis Erickson’s squad is in danger of circling the drain if it can’t deliver the upset Saturday night.
Why USC might win: After struggling uncharacteristically against the likes of Jimmy Clausen, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Jeremiah Masoli, the beleaguered Trojan defense will delight in facing the Sun Devils. Arizona State is sorely lacking in pop and star power, averaging just 20 points over the last six games. After getting embarrassed in Eugene, DE Everson Griffen, LB Chris Galippo, S Taylor Mays, and the rest of the unit will play with a surly attitude and with something to prove. Sun Devil Danny Sullivan is a stationary quarterback, who’ll be a sitting target for the USC D.
Why Arizona State might win: Statistically speaking, the Sun Devil defense has been better than the Trojans this fall. Allowing just 296 yards and 19 points a game, Arizona State has been creating pressure and turnovers since the opener. And it’s not as if the USC attack has been incendiary this year, especially away from the Coliseum. The Devils are flush with talent in the front seven, including tackles Saia Falahola and Lawrence Guy, and linebackers Mike Nixon and Vontaze Burfict. Burfict is the former can’t-miss true freshman, who turned down Troy to play for Erickson. This group is No. 4 nationally against the run, and has only really had one bad game in 2009.
Who to watch: USC’s Matt Barkley is coming off his first loss as a collegian, but don’t pin last week on the true freshman. He continues to mature as a passer and as one of the leaders of the offense, gradually expanding his role in the huddle. The numbers aren’t staggering, largely due to a conservative approach, but his development has been no less impressive. If Arizona State stops RB Joe McKnight, a distinct possibility, the Trojans might be forced to open up No. 7 a bit more.
What will happen: Although USC clearly has something to prove to a stunned nation, don’t expect a flawless performance from a flawed team. Away from home and in the face of a legitimately stout defense, that’s unrealistic. The Trojan D, however, will make sure that the situation doesn’t get any worse for the program. It’ll keep Arizona State reeling on offense, forcing enough field goal attempts and three-and-outs to leave Tempe with a hard-fought win.
CFN Prediction: USC 28 … Arizona State 16 ... Line: USC -11
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats
1) … 3
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10, Part 1