2009 C-USA Fearless Predictions
Week 10 ... Nov. 7 Games, Part 2
East
UAB |
UCF
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East
Carolina
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Marshall
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Memphis
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Southern
Miss
West
Houston |
Rice
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SMU
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Tulane
|
Tulsa
|
UTEP
Conference USA Fearless Predictions
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10, Part 1
Rice (0-8) at SMU (4-4),3:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Look out, postseason. June Jones is on his way. In less than two seasons, the coach has SMU on the brink of ending a quarter-century of bowl futility. No, the Mustangs haven’t qualified for anything just yet, but after stunning Tulsa on the road last Saturday, the change in climate on the Hilltop is evident. Two wins away from eligibility and tied with Houston in the West, SMU has the luxury of playing four schools down the stretch that are just 10-23 combined. One of those opponents, Rice, has devolved into the league’s biggest disappointment of 2009, losing all eight games by an average of 31 points. The Owls got a week off to get healthy and clear their heads, but unless someone found extra eligibility for former QB Chase Clement and WR Jarett Dillard, the result are likely to be the same.
Why Rice might win: For any opponent, the best way to attack SMU is to go after a defense that’s had problems stopping the run and has yielded at least 30 points five times. The Owls must get true freshman RB Charles Ross involved in the offense early in order to keep the Mustang offense on the sidelines. He’s shown flashes of being a go-to guy in his rookie year, playing well against Vanderbilt and UCF, and scoring five times. If he can get going before Rice falls into a hole, it should open things up for the passing game, whether Nick Fanuzzi or John Thomas Shepherd gets the majority of the snaps.
Why SMU might win: Will QB Bo Levi Mitchell be ready to go this week for the Mustangs? Will it matter? Freshman Kyle Padron has been brilliant since replacing the starter two weeks ago, going 31-of-46 for 495 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks. He’s also shown excellent mobility and uncommon poise, traits that’ll cause problems for a Rice defense that’s allowed more points than any other school in the country. With support from RB Shawnbrey McNeal and the Emmanuel Sanders-led receiving corps, SMU will have no problems moving the chains and putting points on the board.
Who to watch: No, the SMU defense won’t be confused with the one over in Austin anytime soon, but it has started to play better. A lot better. In fact, in the win over Tulsa last Saturday, the Mustangs allowed just 322 yards and 13 points. An undersized, athletic unit, it’s begun getting help from some of the younger players, like true freshman LB Ja’Gared Davis. He’s had 17 tackles in the last two weeks, and in last weekend’s first career start, he had six solos and 1.5 sacks, flashing excellent potential for the final third of the regular season.
What will happen: With so much in front of it, SMU will not squander the opportunity to make Rice its fifth victim of the season. Playing their best football of the season and flying high after upsetting Tulsa, the Mustangs will come out smoking, moving up and down the field on the Owl D and easily winning the turnover battle.
CFN Prediction: SMU 41 … Rice 17 ... Line: SMU -18
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats
1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions
UTEP (3-5) at Tulane (2-6),3:30 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: If someone can figure out UTEP, give a call to head coach Mike Price. He can use the help. Over the last four schizophrenic weeks, the Miners have stunned Houston and Tulsa and flopped versus Memphis and UAB. Huh? The school doesn’t make a lick of sense, yet having beaten the Cougars and Hurricane means it still has a chance to take the West if it ever goes on a run. It could be worse. It could be Tulane, one of two remaining schools without a Conference USA victory. The Green Wave has sunk to four consecutive losses, dropping the last two to Southern Miss and LSU by a combined score of 85-6. The only intrigue left around New Orleans is whether or not Bob Toledo will survive another rotten season on the sidelines.
Why UTEP might win: Hope in El Paso comes from an offense that can run the ball with Donald Buckram and spread it around the field through the air with QB Trevor Vittatoe. Buckram has been an all-star performer, rushing for 947 yards and 10 touchdowns with a blend of good speed and vision. He’s gone for at least 164 yards in three of the last four games. Although Vittatoe has not been sterling, he is a three-starter surrounded by talented receivers Jeff Moturi and Kris Adams. UTEP has too many weapons for a brutal Tulane D that can’t stop the pass and ranks 114th in scoring defense.
Why Tulane might win: Not unlike this week’s opponent, the Green Wave has some interesting playmakers to offset a toothless defense. Now that the competition is finally being dialed down, Tulane will look to maximize the talents of RB Andre Anderson and WR Jeremy Williams, who’d be far less anonymous if they played in the SEC. The pair will be looking to exploit the myriad weak spots in a UTEP defense that’s 113th against the run, 106th against the pass, and giving up almost 34 points a game.
Who to watch: S Da’Mon Cromartie-Smith continues to be one of the lone bright spots on the UTEP defense this fall. The type of defender who can cover Williams and shut off Anderson’s running lanes, he’s second in the country with 73 tackles. The key for the Miners will be for more of his stops to be closer to the line of scrimmage rather than deep in the secondary.
What will happen: UTEP has followed a loss with a win, and vice versa, every weekend since early September. That trend will continue in the Superdome on Saturday. While Tulane appears to be operating on fumes, the Miners still believe they have a shot at the West Division. It’ll show, particularly from Buckram, who’ll race for another 150 yards and two scores on a fast indoor track.
CFN Prediction: UTEP 35 … Tulane 27 ... Line: UTEP -7.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats
1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Memphis (2-6) at Tennessee (4-4),7:00 EST, ESPNU, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Memphis and Tennessee meet for the 21st time in a series that’s been completely dominated by the Volunteers. The Tigers have broken through just one time in a 1996 upset at home. Tennessee is coming off a critical win in its quest to get back to the postseason, jumping on South Carolina in a hurry and holding on for an easy 31-13 victory. The Vols closed the month of October on a high note, having also blown out Georgia and darn near upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Memphis is simply playing out the schedule at this point, wondering if head coach Tommy West will be back on the sidelines again in 2010. For a program that’s grown accustomed to mid-tier bowl games, starting 1-4 in Conference USA play and losing the last two by an average of 20 points have been sobering for the Tigers.
Why Memphis might win: When Tennessee has gotten in trouble this season, it was because the offense disappeared and QB Jonathan Crompton handed the ball to the other team. Now, the Tigers clearly don’t have an SEC-caliber defense, but it does possess speed and the ability to make things happen. There’s quality in the front seven, led by massive true freshman DT Dontari Poe and sideline-to-sideline LB Greg Jackson. Memphis may not shut down the Volunteers, but if it can force field goals and force Crompton to turn the ball over, anything is possible. Wasn’t UT in a dogfight with Ohio earlier in the year?
Why Tennessee might win: Defense. Somewhat lost in a mediocre season has been the play of a Volunteer D that ranks No. 13 in the country and is allowing only 17 points a game. Neither running nor passing on Tennessee has spawned many big plays this fall, a particular concern for a sub par Memphis offense. While QB Will Hudgens will grow tired of running from DT Dan Williams and LB Rico McCoy, S Eric Berry will make sure that those rangy Tiger receivers are well-covered. Memphis couldn’t get beyond the teens in six of its last seven games with FBS opponents. There’s no reason to believe that trend changes in Knoxville.
Who to watch: A year after playing second fiddle and rushing for 271 yards, Tennessee senior Montario Hardesty is quietly finishing his college career on a positive note. One big game from 1,000 yards, he’s been the steadiest option of the offense, averaging 20 carries a game and allowing true freshmen Bryce Brown and David Oku to be brought along at a more modest pace.
What will happen: The only way this is a game after halftime is if Tennessee completely looks past Memphis and ahead to the Ole Miss trip. It won’t. Instead, the Volunteers will force a slew of three-and-outs and get a couple of Crompton to Gerald Jones touchdown passes to coast above the .500 mark for the first time since the opening weekend.
CFN Prediction: Tennessee 38 … Memphis 10 ... Line: Tennessee -26
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats
1) … 2
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10, Part 1