2009 C-USA Fearless Predictions
Week 10 ... Nov. 7 Games
East
UAB |
UCF
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East
Carolina
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Marshall
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Memphis
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Southern
Miss
West
Houston |
Rice
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SMU
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Tulane
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Tulsa
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UTEP
Conference USA Fearless Predictions
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10, Part 2 (UTEP at Tulane, and more)
Game of the Week
Houston (7-1) at Tulsa (4-4),7:30 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: For the past few seasons, this has been the game of the year in Conference USA. Now? Not so much. Don’t blame Houston. The Cougars remain ranked in the Top 25 and the favorite to win the league championship. They maintained those positions with a thrilling 50-43 win over Southern Miss that left the home crowd out of breath and furthered QB Case Keenum’s bid for national awards. Tulsa, however, is not Tulsa these days. Suffering through its worst season since 2004, the Hurricane has dropped three straight games, including the last two as a favorite to UTEP and SMU. The West champ the last two seasons, it’s in serious jeopardy of not even earning a bowl berth in 2009.
Why Houston might win: Keenum has the offense on cruise control, with no stop signs or traffic jams in sight. The Cougars lead the nation in total offense and are No.2 in scoring at 41 points a game. Only Texas Tech kept this juggernaut below 30 points, and that was two months ago. Now three-quarters of the way through the season, Keenum has developed a rhythm with his assortment of playmakers, like backs Charles Sims and Bryce Beall and receivers James Cleveland, Tyron Carrier, and Patrick Edwards. A week ago, Tulsa allowed SMU rookie Kyle Padron to throw for 354 yards and two scores in his debut as a starter. That does not bode for this week’s contest.
Why Tulsa might win: What in the world has happened to the Hurricane offense, once a staple in these parts? It’s averaging a mere 17 points in the last five games versus FBS teams. A visit from Houston could be exactly what this struggling unit needs. The Cougars house the nation’s 114th-ranked defense and just got done being exposed by a backup quarterback from Southern Miss. While the execution hasn’t been there, Tulsa still has enough weapons surrounding QB G.J. Kinne to finally emerge from mediocrity. The key will be to get receivers Damaris Johnson, Trae Johnson, and Slick Shelley in space, where they can beat the Houston defenders in man situations.
Who to watch: Cleveland began his career in Iowa, but is not flourishing in Houston. Unlike most of the Cougar receivers, he has an NFL body and now the confidence of Keenum to be a monster performer in this attack. After starting a little slowly, he’s gone berserk on opposing defenses, making at least 11 grabs in three of the last five games. Particularly around the end zone, he’s also the type of big, physical receiver that this offense has lacked in recent years.
What will happen: Although the Tulsa defense—and the Houston D—will keep this game from becoming lopsided, what has the Hurricane showed to believe in it this week? The program has been awful for the past month, which the Cougars will look to exploit on Saturday night. Keenum and the offense are playing too well to be derailed in their quest for a league crown.
CFN Prediction: Houston 37 … Tulsa 24 ... Line: Houston -2
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats
1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions
UCF (5-3) at Texas (8-0),12:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Texas is the new Florida. Or Alabama. After nimbly navigating the toughest stretch of the schedule, Oklahoma, at Missouri, and at Oklahoma State, the Longhorns have become a trendy choice as the nation’s premier team of 2009. How can you argue? The two recent road trips, potential landmines to some, wound up being referendums on the program’s upside potential. Now, only a major upset in the final four games will Texas from Pasadena. UCF is also playing well, but naturally on a completely different scale. On Sunday night, the Knights rallied for two touchdowns in the final eight minutes, including one with 23 seconds left, to slip past Marshall, 21-20. At 5-3, they’re poised to cop one of Conference USA’s automatic bowl berths.
Why UCF might win: After the recent gauntlet that Texas just endured, could you blame it for not being geeked about a November visit from the Knights? The ‘Horns might sleepwalk through the first 30 minutes before even realizing they’re in a game. UCF has a feisty and fast defense that’s only yielded more than 20 points once in the last six games—to Miami. Led by an outstanding front seven that includes ends Bruce Miller and Jarvis Geathers, DT Torrell Troup, and linebackers Cory Hogue and Lawrence Young, the Knights lead the league in run defense, scoring defense, and total defense.
Why Texas might win: As bad as the problems have been on offense for UCF, it hasn’t seen anything yet. Will Muschamp has done a phenomenal job with this Longhorn defense, overcoming the loss of key players in the front seven to lead the nation in run defense and allow just 13 points a game. If the Knights can’t run with Brynn Harvey, it has no chance to move the chains with their dink-and-dunk passing game. Texas swarms to the ball with linebackers Roddrick Muckelroy, Emmanuel Acho, and Sergio Kindle, and has been as good as anyone in the country at producing non-offensive touchdowns.
Who to watch: Tennessee’s Eric Berry and USC’s Taylor Mays may make more headlines, but no safety in America has been a more consistent playmaker than Texas’ Earl Thomas. Just a sophomore, he plays with the mindset and the athleticism of a cornerback, jumping routes and blanketing opposing receivers. He already has a Big 12-best six interceptions, two of which he’s taken back for touchdowns.
What will happen: No matter how long Texas remains in cruise control, UCF lacks the offensive firepower to keep this game interesting for very long. Even if the ‘Horns sputter on offense for a few series, the Knights will not be able to take advantage. Eventually, QB Colt McCoy will find WR Jordan Shipley alone in the end zone, breaking the game wide open and bringing UT one leg closer to the Rose Bowl.
CFN Prediction: Texas 45 … UCF 10 ... Line: Texas -36
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats
1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Florida Atlantic (2-5) at UAB (3-5),2:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Until it’s no longer mathematically possible, both Florida Atlantic and UAB will be striving toward .500 seasons, which would be an achievement in Boca Raton and Birmingham, respectively. The Owls had their two-game winning streak snapped a week ago, losing to Middle Tennessee State, 27-20, and losing long-time starting QB Rusty Smith to a shoulder injury. They held a lead in the final quarter, but couldn’t hold on or rally in the final minutes. The Blazers are emboldened by last week’s 38-33 win in El Paso, an upset of UTEP and a rare road win that ended a two-game losing streak. Still alive in Conference USA East at 3-2, UAB has a chance to win back-to-back games for the first time in four years.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: Smith’s successor, Jeff Van Camp, is a fourth-year junior, who should be able to keep the offense humming, especially versus UAB. The Blazers rank 117th nationally in total D and have had no answers in pass defense. Even if the Owls lean a little more heavily on talented RB Alfred Morris, they’ll still look to get the ball in the hands of top pass-catchers, WR Chris Bonner and TE Jason Harmon, provided a hip injury doesn’t keep him on the shelf. There’s a level of balance in this attack that’s going to vex the UAB defenders.
Why UAB might win: Joe Webb vs. Smith shaped up as a really interesting battle of senior quarterbacks. Webb vs. Van Camp could be a one-sided affair. The multi-dimensional Blazer hurler continues to hoist the team on his back, week after week. Now the nation’s No.8 rusher at 122 yards a game, he’s like a nimble fullback, with the ability to drop back and hit receivers Frantrell Forrest and Jeffery Anderson. Florida Atlantic’s 116th-ranked run defense figures to be no match for Webb, even though it knows exactly what’s coming.
Who to watch: Van Camp may be a junior, but he’s also very green. UAB would like to rattle him from the opening drive, putting doubt in his mind. Since the Blazers don’t have the cover guys to blitz much, it’ll be incumbent upon DE Bryant Turner to get off the snap quickly and at least rush throws. The junior has had a good season so far, leading the school with 7.5 tackles for loss and five sacks.
What will happen: Look for both offenses to dominate in Birmingham, but Webb to walk out of Legion Field with game MVP honors. UAB is confident after last weekend’s victory, and has a singular figure that the rest of the squad has rallied around. If Webb gets the ball in the final minutes with a chance to win, he’ll will the Blazers to the finish line if it’s necessary.
CFN Prediction: UAB 33 … Florida Atlantic 28 ... Line: UAB -4.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats
1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions
- Week
10, Part 2 (UTEP at Tulane, and more)