2009 Ind & ND Fearless Predictions - Week 10

Previews and Predictions for the Week 10 Independent Games

2009 Ind. Fearless Predictions

Week 10 ... Nov. 7 Games

Army | Navy | Notre Dame 

Independent Fearless Predictions
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Navy (6-3) at Notre Dame (6-2) , 2:30 EST, Saturday, November 7, NBC

Why to watch: It was the low point of the Charlie Weis era two years ago when Notre Dame lost to Navy 46-44 to break a 43-year winning streak in the series. Now the Irish have things turned around at 6-2 and trying to go on a run to boost up the record enough to get into the BCS discussion. It’s not going to be an easy final month with road games against Pitt and Stanford, along with a home game against Connecticut, but if Navy gets hot, this could be a deathblow to big bowl hopes. It’s a contrast in styles with Notre Dame ranking eighth in the nation in passing and Navy third in the country running it. Coming off a rough loss to Temple, Navy could go on a big-time run of wins if it can pull off the upset with Delaware, Hawaii, and Army left to play. If Notre Dame really is BCS worthy, it should be able to come up with a big performance and win easily, but Navy is Navy and it’s getting healthier at the right time.
Why Navy might win: Notre Dame’s biggest problem is its mediocre pass defense, but the run defense isn’t anything special. The stats are fine, but teams like USC and Purdue were too busy throwing the ball to bother with the ground attack. Meanwhile, the Navy secondary has been solid when the ground game is working. When Navy can pound away and control the clock, the teams with the better passing games, like Rice, SMU, and Wake Forest, weren’t able to put up big numbers. This is a feisty secondary that is as good as Navy has had in a long time, but it’s about to get pushed and pushed hard.
Why Notre Dame might win: This is an awful matchup for Navy. Yes, the running game should work against the decent Irish linebackers, and yes, the offense will control the clock, but there’s absolutely no pass rush for the Irish to worry about. Notre Dame’s offensive line has been inconsistent in pass protection, but there shouldn’t be much worry against a Navy defensive front that has only generated ten sacks on the year and can’t get into the backfield. The Midshipmen D knows what it can and can’t do, and does everything it can to read and react without a killer pass rusher to rely on. Jimmy Clausen and the Notre Dame passing game should go ballistic, especially because …
Who to watch: … Michael Floyd is back. After catching 11 passes for 320 yards and three touchdowns in the first two games, he caught two passes for 38 yards with a brilliant touchdown catch against Michigan State. However, he broke his collarbone when he landed wrong, but now he’s back to add a running mate for Golden Tate, who has been one of the nation’s hottest receivers over the last month. Navy also gets a key piece of the puzzle back with QB Ricky Dobbs returning from a knee injury. He played a little bit last week against Temple and ran for five yards and went 0-for-3 passing, but he’s expected to be able to go full bore this week. When he was right, he was devastating on the gorund with 104 yards against Rice and 143 against Western Kentucky, scoring four touchdowns in each game, and has 16 rushing scores on the year. He can also throw a little bit and will try to take advantage of a weak Irish secondary.
What will happen: Navy will get its yards and will throw a scare into the Irish, who’s used to playing in tight games, but the lack of a pass rush will be a killer. Clausen will put up Heisman-like numbers as the Irish pull away late in the second half.
CFN Prediction: Notre Dame 37 … Navy 20 ... Line: Notre Dame -11
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 3.5
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Army (3-5) at Air Force (5-4), 3:30 EST, Saturday, November 7

Why to watch: There’s always a lot of outside factors brought into any football game between service academies, but after the tragedy at Fort Hood, it brings the reality of the players’ world front and center. These are football players on the field, but soon they’ll go off and serve their country; a fact that tends to get lost in the heat of the season. On the field, each team needs to come up with a win to keep bowl hopes alive. Army is on a two-game losing streak and has lost four of its last five games, with a stunning overtime win over Vanderbilt in the mix. With winnable games against VMI and North Texas coming up next, the Knights will likely get to six wins before dealing with Navy if they can beat the Falcons. For Air Force, coming up with a win is a must to get bowl eligible, and then it’s going to take a win over either UNLV or BYU in the final two weeks to be assured of a spot.
Why Army might win: Army’s defense is playing extremely well, and it’s used to seeing option attacks. It’s almost impossible for most teams to be able to properly simulate the speed and efficiency of the Air Force attack, but Army can since it runs many of the same types of plays. The Knight run defense has the quickness at linebacker and the want-to up front to keep the Air Force defense from exploding. Army was able to beat Vanderbilt by making fewer mistakes and getting the running game going, and it’ll need to do both to get the win.
Why Air Force might win: They might run similar offenses, but Air Force does it better. Army isn’t bad at turning the ball over, but Air Force is terrific, currently ranking second in the nation in turnover margin. Since Army will have to be at least a +2 to have a shot, and it won’t be, Air Force should be able to use its tremendous run defense and pounding ground game to get by. Forget about any passing game from Army, while Air Force should be a wee bit more balanced and should be more effective on third downs.
Who to watch: Air Force is at its best when it isn’t doing anything fancy. Junior fullback Jared Tew has been a good indicator of how well the offense is working, with the Falcons going 4-0 this year when he has rushed for 60 yards or more, while the only win when he didn’t hit the mark coming in the season opener against Nicholls State, and he wasn’t needed in the 72-0 win. It’s a simple concept; when he’s doing his job up the middle, everything starts to work on the outside, and as good as Army has been against the run, it’ll have problems stopping Tew as the game goes on.
What will happen: Air Force already lost to Navy in overtime in part one of the battle for the Commander-in-Chief trophy, and it’s not going to lose part two. The passing of Tim Jefferson will give Air Force just enough of a variance to the offense to pull off the win.
CFN Prediction: Air Force 27 … Army 16 ... Line: Air Force -17
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2.5
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