2009 M-West Fearless Predictions
Week 10 ... Nov. 7 Games
Air Force |
BYU
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Colorado State
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New Mexico
San
Diego State |
TCU
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UNLV
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Utah
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Wyoming
Mountain West Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
TCU (8-0) at San Diego State (4-4), 4:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: How hot is TCU? The Horned Frogs are looking every bit the Mountain West-title, BCS-worthy squad that’s being thrust into the upper-echelon of the rankings with wins in it last three games by a combined total of 123 to 13. Everything is clicking at the right time, but they can’t look past San Diego State before the showdown against Utah. The Aztecs have started out struggling in the first month of the Brady Hoke era, but then the offense started to work, the passing game became dangerous, and they won three of four games, pushing BYU in the one loss, to get into contention for a bowl. While they don’t have the overall talent to beat TCU without some major luck, they have the momentum offensively to make this interesting. And if they pull off the win, then Hoke and the Aztecs will likely be the story of the week.
Why TCU might win: The defense is playing at another level. Nothing is working right now against the Horned Frogs with no one but Air Force running for more than 229 yards, and San Diego State doesn’t have a ground game to worry about. No one’s doing much through the air, either, with TCU allowing just two touchdown passes over the last four games and just 188 yards to BYU’s attack. But while the defense is getting all the publicity, the offense isn’t far behind with a near-perfect balance. The Horned Frogs can play any way right now with explosion, power, on the ground or through the air. In other words, this is a complete team. San Diego State is hardly that, and if the passing game isn’t humming, this will be ugly.
Why San Diego State might win: Teams have thrown on TCU. It’s been a month since anyone has been able to do it, but SMU and Texas State each threw for more than 200 yards and TCU allowed two touchdown passes in three of the first four games. One of the big keys is the pass protection. The Aztec line can run block, but it’s doing a strong job of keeping QB Ryan Lindley clean. Over the last three games, SDSU has thrown for 1,034 yards and 12 touchdowns with just one interception, but …
Who to watch: … the passing attack suffered a potentially crippling blow with the loss of junior WR Vincent Brown for the year to a thumb injury. In the mix for the Biletnikoff Award after catching 45 passes for 778 yards and six scores in the first six games, but DeMarco Sampson has picked up the slack with a whopping 27 catches and seven touchdowns over the last three games. He’ll be target No. 1 for the TCU defense, meaning others like Dominique Sandifer and Alston Umolo will need to come up with big performances to keep the Aztec offense moving.
What will happen: TCU will keep on being TCU. The defense will give up a few passing yards, but the offense will answer every challenge with good balance and a few big plays from star returner/receiver Jeremy Kerley.
CFN Prediction: TCU 38 … San Diego State 10 ... Line: TCU -24
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 3
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BYU (6-2) at Wyoming (4-4), 2:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Wyoming went from being almost certain to go to a bowl game after a strong 4-2 start to needing to scramble to get to six wins after losing on the road to Air Force and Utah. With TCU and a suddenly tough-looking road game at San Diego State coming up over the next few weeks, the second half of the second could turn into a total disaster if the Cowboys can’t come up with an upset over the Cougars. BYU isn’t out of the Mountain West title chase despite getting blasted 38-7 at home by TCU two weeks ago, but it needs to win out and needs Utah to beat the Horned Frogs. For now, just getting back on the field after the ugly embarrassment is important, and getting a win in a beartrap of a game is important to save face. The team is better than it has been playing, and it needs to show it.
Why BYU might win: Wyoming doesn’t have nearly enough firepower to keep up the pace the Cougars should set. For all of BYU’s problems last week, it’s still the Mountain West leader in both total offense and passing offense. Wyoming’s offense has been fine against awful teams like Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, and Florida Atlantic, but it has scored ten points over the last two weeks against Air Force and Utah. Wyoming doesn’t have the worst offense in the Mountain West, but it’s not far off averaging a mere 313 yards per game and 18 points. The passing game doesn’t have enough pop to come back if BYU gets up early.
Why Wyoming might win: Wyoming is a strange place for visiting teams to play. Every team has a home field advantage, but the Cowboys really are night-and-day better in their own park, going 3-1 this year with the one loss coming to Texas. BYU’s defensive line has been mediocre, failing to do enough to get into the backfield while being average against the run against anyone who can try pounding the ball. If the game is played without mistakes, Wyoming can’t win. However, the Cowboys are terrific when it comes to hanging on to the ball, losing just three interceptions and four fumbles, while BYU has had problems with turnovers giving it away 17 times.
Who to watch: Wyoming DT John Fletcher has had a tremendous career, making 24 sacks and 38 tackles for loss, along with 159 tackles, but he has been held in check by BYU. So far this season, the all-star has been steady and has stepped up his game over the last few weeks with two sacks against Air Force and four sacks in the last four games. He’s more than just a pass rusher; he’s an anchor who needs to hold firm against the Cougar running game.
What will happen: If BYU gets out to a lead early on, this might be over. But Wyoming will come up with a strong performance at home and will keep it close by capitalizing over a few takeaways, but Max Hall and the Cougar offense will come through with a few key scoring drives to pull away in the second half.
CFN Prediction: BYU 27 … Wyoming 17 ... Line: BYU -13
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 3
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Army (3-5) at Air Force (5-4), 3:30 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: There’s always a lot of outside factors brought into any football game between service academies, but after the tragedy at Fort Hood, it brings the reality of the players’ world front and center. These are football players on the field, but soon they’ll go off and serve their country; a fact that tends to get lost in the heat of the season. On the field, each team needs to come up with a win to keep bowl hopes alive. Army is on a two-game losing streak and has lost four of its last five games, with a stunning overtime win over Vanderbilt in the mix. With winnable games against VMI and North Texas coming up next, the Knights will likely get to six wins before dealing with Navy if they can beat the Falcons. For Air Force, coming up with a win is a must to get bowl eligible, and then it’s going to take a win over either UNLV or BYU in the final two weeks to be assured of a spot.
Why Army might win: Army’s defense is playing extremely well, and it’s used to seeing option attacks. It’s almost impossible for most teams to be able to properly simulate the speed and efficiency of the Air Force attack, but Army can since it runs many of the same types of plays. The Knight run defense has the quickness at linebacker and the want-to up front to keep the Air Force defense from exploding. Army was able to beat Vanderbilt by making fewer mistakes and getting the running game going, and it’ll need to do both to get the win.
Why Air Force might win: They might run similar offenses, but Air Force does it better. Army isn’t bad at turning the ball over, but Air Force is terrific, currently ranking second in the nation in turnover margin. Since Army will have to be at least a +2 to have a shot, and it won’t be, Air Force should be able to use its tremendous run defense and pounding ground game to get by. Forget about any passing game from Army, while Air Force should be a wee bit more balanced and should be more effective on third downs.
Who to watch: Air Force is at its best when it isn’t doing anything fancy. Junior fullback Jared Tew has been a good indicator of how well the offense is working, with the Falcons going 4-0 this year when he has rushed for 60 yards or more, while the only win when he didn’t hit the mark coming in the season opener against Nicholls State, and he wasn’t needed in the 72-0 win. It’s a simple concept; when he’s doing his job up the middle, everything starts to work on the outside, and as good as Army has been against the run, it’ll have problems stopping Tew as the game goes on.
What will happen: Air Force already lost to Navy in overtime in part one of the battle for the Commander-in-Chief trophy, and it’s not going to lose part two. The passing of Tim Jefferson will give Air Force just enough of a variance to the offense to pull off the win.
CFN Prediction: Air Force 27 … Army 16 ... Line: Air Force -17
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2.5
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New Mexico (0-8) at Utah (7-1), 6:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Don’t blow the layup … Don’t blow the layup … Don’t blow the layup. Utah is very, very quietly on a five game winning streak and is in a position to rise up and shock the college football world over the final month and get into the at-large BCS discussion with road trips against TCU and BYU to deal with (along with a home date with San Diego State). But first, the Utes have to get by a mess of a New Mexico team on a 12-game losing streak and has done nothing but go into the tank since Mike Locksley has taken over. With BYU and TCU still to play, along with Colorado State, it’s going to take something special to avoid going 0-12.
Why New Mexico might win: New Mexico played better last week in the loss at San Diego State with a short range passing game that kept the offense moving a little bit. The nightmare of an attack actually worked a little bit with QB Donovan Porterie getting the ball out of his hands quickly, and while Utah’s terrific pass defense isn’t going to give up anything deep, it should give up plenty of dinks and dunks. But for all the positives coming from last week’s loss, the only way New Mexico has a shot is if Utah’s head is in Fort Worth. The Lobos have to catch the Utes napping.
Why Utah might win: Utah doesn’t have to do anything special, and it doesn’t have to do anything out of its comfort-zone to get the win. Run the ball, rely on its defense, and don’t turn the ball over. New Mexico struggles to score and won’t get any sort of a running game against the Ute defense. Utah’s defensive front will get into the New Mexico backfield at will and will pop QB Donovan Porterie over and over again. There simply won’t be time for the Lobos to get anything going down the field.
Who to watch: It’s not like Porterie has been bad. He has thrown for 200 yards or more in each of the last five games, but he’s not having the monster games needed to make up for the lack of a running game. The senior has had an up-and-down career, and the fact that he’s simply playing is a miracle considering he destroyed his knee last year, and it took him a few games to start to find his groove. He had his breakout game as a freshman throwing for 350 yards and three scores in a 34-31 win over the Utes in 2006, and he’ll need to come up with a similar performance to give his team a shot.
What will happen: Porterie will get his 250 yards on about 45 passes, but he doesn’t play defense. Utah will calmly and coolly move up and down the field with its running game and midrange passing attack in an easy win before going off to TCU.
CFN Prediction: Utah 44 … New Mexico 13 ... Line: Utah -27
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 1.5
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Colorado State (3-6) at UNLV (3-6), 10:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: It’s also-ran time for two incredible disappointing teams. UNLV was supposed to finally get the spread attack turned around and was supposed to be rolling, but it hasn’t happened. After losing four straight, the Rebels finally got a win in conference play a few weeks ago beating New Mexico, and then came yet another disastrous loss getting blasted 41-0 to TCU meaning they have to win the final three games to get to be bowl eligible. Colorado State started out hot winning three straight and then went into the tank with six straight losses including two in a row at home to San Diego State and Air Force. The defense has gone bye-bye and the offense isn’t producing enough to keep up, but like UNLV, the Rams can win their final three games, they get a layup against New Mexico next week before finishing with Wyoming at home, so bowl eligibility is still possible.
Why Colorado State might win: UNLV has the one defense in the conference worse than Colorado State’s. It gets ripped apart by anyone who tries to run the ball, while the secondary is suffering from a lack of help from the defensive front. The Rebels don’t generate any pressure, and Colorado State’s offense has the potential to push the ball down the field. It hasn’t happened a lot lately, but the Rams were able to hit on its mid-to-deep throws early on and should be able to connect again this week.
Why UNLV might win: The Rebels should also be able to throw without much of a problem. CSU doesn’t do enough to get to the quarterback (but it’s better at it than UNLV), and the Rebel quarterbacks should be able to crank out big numbers. UNLV has a good receiving corps, but they haven’t been able to show off enough of what they can do. They should tear up the CSU secondary; at least that’s the hope for Rebel fans. CSU doesn’t force turnovers, and while it has only lost one fumble this year, the D doesn’t take the ball away.
Who to watch: The phenomenal career of UNLV WR Ryan Wolfe might only have three games left in it. The record-setting senior has been one of the bright spots in an otherwise dismal season, making 66 catches for 682 yards and two scores with 11 grabs two weeks ago against New Mexico. He was held to just four catches by CSU last year, but he went crazy in 2007 with 11 catches for 135 yards and a score against the Rams. With 275 career catches, and while he might fall just short of 300 catches, he could lay the foundation for a possible run at the mark with a huge performance.
What will happen: Colorado State isn’t playing up to its potential, and the defense is going to keep on struggling. The UNLV offense is hit or miss. It’ll be a hit this week to keep bowl eligibility dreams alive.
CFN Prediction: UNLV 31 … Colorado State 26 ... Line: Colorado State -1.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 1.5
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