2009 WAC Fearless Predictions
Week 10 ... Nov. 7 Games
Boise State |
Fresno State |
Hawaii
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Idaho
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Louisiana Tech
Nevada |
New Mexico St |
San Jose
State |
Utah State
WAC Fearless Predictions
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Week 8
Game of the Week
Boise State (8-0) at Louisiana Tech (3-5) , 8:00 EST, Friday, November 6, ESPN2
Why to watch: It’s Friday night and there’s nothing going on in the sports world. The NBA will hold a little of the world’s interest, everyone has already forgotten who won the World Series, and for the sports starved, this will be a chance to check in on Boise State to see if it really does appear to be good enough to be in the BCS Championship discussion. The last time the Broncos were on national TV they struggled on a Wednesday night against Tulsa. While Louisiana Tech isn’t Louisiana State, it’s a better team than Tulsa and Boise State has to show up and rip its face off and show why this isn’t just a good team with a joke of a schedule. Style points count; Boise State needs to win this game in an ugly blowout. Louisiana Tech has been a major disappointment. The defense hasn’t been as strong as expected, the offense hasn’t been consistent, and for all the experience, there haven’t been the wins in close games like there should’ve been. The Bulldogs lost to Utah State and Idaho by a combined three points, but they could turn around their season with a big upset.
Why Boise State might win: Louisiana Tech is banged up. The Bulldogs need all the parts to be working to beat a tight, efficient team like Boise State, and they need all of their explosive pieces in place. That could be a problem without Daniel Porter, the top running backs who’ll be limited, at best, after suffering a concussion, and with star WR Phillip Livas trying to play through an ankle injury. This is a team with limited offense to begin with, and if Boise State gets up by any sort of a lead, it’s over.
Why Louisiana Tech might win: The Bulldogs need as much time to work as possible, and while Boise State isn’t bad at getting behind the line, it doesn’t generate enough pressure on the quarterback. Tech’s offensive line is average, to be kind, and while it’ll struggle with the Bronco line, it’ll win its share of battles to keep QB Ross Jenkins clean. Boise State will want to make a statement, but it’s not going for big blowouts like you’d think it would be. The team really is doing the one-game-at-a-time thing. It’s working, but that might be enough to get the win, but not the blowout.
Who to watch: Louisiana Tech QB Ross Jenkins came up with a nice game against Idaho, completing 17-of-30 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns, but he was replaced for stretches by Colby Cameron, the quarterback of the future who stepped in and completed 10-of-16 passes for 142 yards. Jenkins is still the main man, for now, but the coaching staff isn’t afraid to make a switch at a moment’s notice and might make the change if the season gets out of hand. Jenkins has been just good enough to get by, but the team needs a playmaker. Cameron might be it, and now he has to show he can be the main for next year.
What will happen: Boise State is playing too coldly efficient to blow it now, but a jacked up Bulldog team will play an inspired effort to keep it close for three quarters.
CFN Prediction: Boise State 34 … Louisiana Tech 20 ... Line: Boise State -21
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 3
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Utah State (2-6) at Hawaii (2-6) , 10:05 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Yeah, yeah, yeah, you are what your record is, but Utah State is better than 2-6. The Aggies have come up with a strong first season under first year head coach Gary Andersen, and while the overall results haven’t been there, at least the team has become interesting. The offense has been exciting, the defense, while bad, has been better than it’s been in years, and there have been several close calls. The last four games have been decided by four points or fewer, with the Aggies losing three of them. Hawaii also falls into the fun-bad category with the nation’s No. 3 passing attack and a defense that gives up points and yards in bunches. However, the Warriors have gone into the tank ever since losing starting QB Greg Alexander, but with New Mexico State and San Jose State up next, they have the potential to go on a nice run starting with a big home win.
Why Utah State might win: Utah State’s defensive line doesn’t generate any pass rush whatsoever. If you can’t get into the backfield and if you can’t hit the quarterback on a regular basis, you’re going to get ripped up by the Warrior passing game, as erratic as it has been. Utah State isn’t too bad against the pass, statistically, but that’s because everyone spends so much time running the ball. The Aggie secondary is about to be in for a long, long evening, but ...
Why Hawaii might win: … Hawaii’s defense can’t stop the run. If you can’t slow down running quarterbacks. You’re going to get ripped up by the Utah State running game. Nevada’s ground attack is more dangerous than Utah State’s, but not by that much. Pack QB Colin Kaepernick ran for 114 yards and Vai Taua ran for 127 as part of a 312-yard day for the team. The Utah State 1-2 rushing punch of QB Diondre Borel and RB Robert Turbin should each go for over 100 yards against a run defense that’s giving up 214 yards per game.
Who to watch: Turbin, a sophomore, isn’t going to win any Player of the Year honors, and he takes a backseat in the WAC to RB Ryan Mathews of Fresno State, but he’s having a monster season with 872 yards and five touchdowns with five 100-yard games. Very fast, when he gets a sliver of daylight, he’s gone. Meanwhile, junior Diondre Borel has come up with a nice year both on the ground and through the air. He hasn’t thrown an interception since the season opener, and has thrown 11 touchdown passes in the last seven games, and he should come up with a huge game against the Warrior D.
What will happen: Hawaii is always strong at home, and the passing game will crank out well over 300 yards, but Utah State will run for over 300 yards and control the game from the start. The Aggies will finally win a close game.
CFN Prediction: Utah State 31 … Hawaii 27 ... Line: Utah State -3
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2
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Fresno State (5-3) at Idaho (7-2) , 10:30 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Each team is still in the WAC title race, and while it’ll require winning out and some help along the way, the winner can still hold out hope. The Vandals have been the nation’s biggest surprise going from being one of college football’s worst programs to 7-2 and bowl eligible. After getting ripped up by Nevada in a 70-45 loss, and down late against Louisiana Tech, Idaho rallied, beat the Bulldogs 35-34, and now can wreak havoc in the WAC race with Fresno State this week and Boise State to follow. The Bulldogs have lost three games this year, and two of them came against possible BCS-bound squads (Boise State and Cincinnati), and pushed Wisconsin to double-overtime. On a four-game winning streak, they’ve beaten up the dregs of the league and now have to go on the road for three of the last four games, including a date at Nevada next week. Still needing a win to become bowl eligible, Fresno needs to get the job done now.
Why Fresno State might win: For all the good things Idaho has done this year, it hasn’t been able to stop the run. The Vandals got destroyed by Nevada, allowing 484 yards and eight scores, and gave up 222 yards and two touchdowns, along with 325 passing yards and three touchdowns, to Louisiana Tech. The line was having a nice season against the run before that, but it doesn’t get into the backfield and it doesn’t hit the quarterback. The Fresno State offensive line will create the holes needed for RB Ryan Mathews to work through.
Why Idaho might win: Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. Idaho isn’t great in turnover margin, but Fresno State has been miserable. Taking the ball away has been a problem for a few years now, and it’s been a big issue this season with just five interceptions and two fumble recoveries. The Fresno defense simply doesn’t generate enough pressure, and that causes a trickle-down effect. No pressure on the quarterback means fewer chances for the secondary to make big plays, which means …
Who to watch: … Nathan Enderle should have a huge day. The Fresno State secondary hasn’t been awful, but it can be beaten on midrange passes. Enderle, a junior, has threw a few too many picks lately, with six in the last four games including three against San Jose State, but he has also bombed away with 342 yards and four scores against Nevada and 327 and two scores in the comeback win over Louisiana Tech. At this point, he has enough experience to not panic if the offense gets down, and he should be able to answer anything Mathews and the Bulldog offense is able to do with some big plays of his own.
What will happen: Idaho has been magical at home this year going 4-0 in the dome, but Fresno State will break the streak. On the fast turf, Mathews will tear off over 200 yards and at least two long touchdown runs. Enderle will get his yards, but not the win.
CFN Prediction: Fresno State 38 … Idaho 27 ... Line: Fresno State -7
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 3
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Nevada (5-3) at San Jose State (1-6) , 8:30 EST, Sunday, November 8, ESPN
Why to watch: Don’t look ahead … don’t look ahead … don’t look ahead. Nevada’s coaching staff can tell its players not to look ahead to the last few weeks of the season, but it’ll be hard for a team rolling on a five-game winning streak and a 4-0 WAC record to not think about the big games coming up against Fresno State and Boise State. San Jose State is desperate after being a major disappointment with a 1-6 start with the only win coming against Cal Poly. On the plus side, most of the games in conference have come against the tougher WAC teams, losing to Idaho, Fresno State, and Boise State, and now the Spartans have to pull off a win against the Pack and win out to get to the six-win mark.
Why Nevada might win: San Jose State has the third worst run defense in America. Uh oh. Dick Tomey’s defense has been stunningly soft all season long, giving up 302 yards to Fresno State and 274 to Idaho with 18 touchdowns. The defensive front hasn’t been generating enough pressure and isn’t making plays in the backfield. To have any prayer of slowing down the nation’s No. 1 rushing offense, a defense has to get to the ball-carrier before he can get through the hole. San Jose State can’t do that. Nevada should get its normal 300+ rushing yards without a problem.
Why San Jose State might win: The Pack has done its best to keep opposing teams in games by losing the turnover margin. The defense, with one of the nation’s worst pass defenses, doesn’t take the ball away, while the offense has lost 12 fumbles. Nevada has been better at holding on to the ball in recent games, after having a nightmare of a time over the first month, but it’s not going to come up with any takeaways, and San Jose State is relatively stingy. The Spartans will finish +2 in turnover margin, and they have to take advantage of every opportunity and they have to get their passing game going from the start.
Who to watch: SJSU WR Kevin Jurovich is overdue for a huge performance. The team’s best receiver had missed most of last year sick, and he came back and played well with a strong first half of the season. He only caught one pass for 13 yards against Fresno State and six passes for 69 yards against Boise State, but he’s now going against a secondary that gives up big plays to everyone. He scored nine times in 2007, but he has yet to get into the end zone this year. That will change this week.
What will happen: San Jose State’s passing game will roll for 300 yards and Jurovich will go ballistic, but Nevada will run for 400 yards and will keep the positive momentum going.
CFN Prediction: Nevada 45 … San Jose State 30 ... Line: Nevada -13
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2
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