2009 MAC Fearless Picks - Week 11

Previews and Predictions for the Week 11 MAC Games

2009 MAC Fearless Predictions

Week 11 ... Nov. 14 Games

East | Akron | Bowling Green | Buffalo | Kent State | Miami Univ. | Ohio | Temple
West  Ball State | Central Mich | Eastern Mich | Northern Illinois | Toledo | West Michigan

MAC Fearless Predictions
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Ohio (6-3) at Buffalo (3-6), 7:00 EST, Tuesday, November 10

Why to watch: Buffalo is out of the MAC title chase, a comeback win by Bowling Green last week against the Bulls ended the dreams, but Ohio is deep in the thick of things. The Bobcats pulled out a 20-17 win at Ball State on Halloween, and after Kent State lost last week to Akron, now it’s a two-team race for the East. If Ohio can pull this off, and can get by Northern Illinois next week, then the regular season finale against Temple should be for the right to play Central Michigan (most likely) for the MAC title. Buffalo is trying to finish on a high note after several heart breakers. The last two games were decided by a total of four points, and two other loses came by a touchdown or less. The defending MAC champions can play the role of spoiler in their final home game of the year.
Why Ohio might win: Turnovers. Ohio has been tremendous all year at winning the turnover margin, and on the road on Senior Night it’ll be important for the mediocre offense to take advantage of every break and every chance. UB has gotten better at taking the ball away, and it has done a far better job of holding on to the ball, while Ohio has been great at forcing mistakes. Ohio has to be +2 in turnover margin because …
Why Buffalo might win: The offense struggles to score. Having problems against Kent State’s stingy defense is one thing, but the Bobcats had problems scoring on Akron and Ball State, too. Ohio is averaging just 315 yards per game and scored 31 points in the last two games. If the suddenly explosive UB offense can get in a groove early on and get the running game going, Ohio doesn’t have the firepower to keep up.
Who to watch: No one ever though Jeffvon Gill would be a factor running the ball as a UB true freshman, but he got his turn against Bowling Green and he made the most of it with 172 yards and a score on 23 carries. Before the performance, he had rushed for just 17 yards on three carries against Gardner-Webb. The Bulls would like to have Ike Nduka at full strength to barrel through the Ohio defense, but if his ankle is still a problem, this could a be another huge day for the speedy Gill. He’s not big, but he’s extremely quick.
What will happen: UB has been close, and while Ohio desperately needs this game, the home team will finish up giving the fans something to be happy about after last week’s disastrous loss.
CFN Prediction: Buffalo 30 … Ohio 27 ... Line: Buffalo -1
Must See Rating: (The Legend of Jimmy the Greek 5 … 2012 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions 

Toledo (4-5) at Central Michigan (7-2), 8:00 EST, Wednesday, November 11, ESPN2

Why to watch: Central Michigan doesn’t have the MAC West locked up by any stretch, and with three games yet to play, including a showdown against Northern Illinois to end the regular season, a loss to Toledo would throw the whole season into chaos. Toledo has fallen off the map after a great start, with quarterback shuffling and injuries contributing to a 1-3 record over the last month, but that one win came against NIU, and with a win this week, it’s Game On in the fight to get to the MAC title game with a scrimmage against Eastern Michigan to follow and Bowling Green to close things up. But Toledo would still need plenty of help, and for now, just getting a win over the mighty Chippewas would be tremendous. CMU has had two weeks off to lick its wounds after getting blasted 31-10 by Boston College, but before that the team was on a seven-game winning streak.
Why Toledo might win: Almost no one has tried to simply lineup and jam the ball down Central Michigan’s throat since Buffalo rumbled for 223 yards several weeks ago. Most teams the Chippewas have played either don’t run, can’t run, or tried to keep up the pace through the air. When Toledo’s running game is on, it’s really on with four 200+ yard games this year including a 216-yard effort in last week’s disastrous loss to Miami University. Toledo has to keep Dan LeFevour and the CMU offense off the field, and it can do that by establishing the run early.
Why Central Michigan might win: Toledo’s stats against the pass look terrific, but don’t be fooled. There haven’t been many high-octane air attacks to deal with so far, and the Rockets are about to be ripped up. Miami’s Zac Dysert threw for 344 yards and a touchdown and ran for 60 yard and scored twice. That was Zac Dysert; it wasn’t Dan LeFevour. The CMU star has been having headache problems, but he’s expected to give it a go. Even with star WR Antonio Brown iffy at best on a bum toe, LeFevour should be able to bomb away at will.
Who to watch: The Toledo quarterback situation hasn’t been awful; it’s been inconsistent. Opelt finally returned from injury and completed 7-of-14 passes for 79 yards and a score last week, but Alex Pettee completed 6-of-8 throws for 87 yards and Austin Dantin completed 5-of-8 for 62 in the loss to the RedHawks. Dantin has an ankle injury and Opelt is expected to give it a go, but WR Eric Page is getting work under center in an emergency there might be a rotation again. Expect DaJuane Collins and Adonis Thomas, who combined for 189 rushing yards, to carry the offense as much as possible.
What will happen: Central Michigan will get the win, LeFevour will be outstanding, but Toledo will get its licks in to make this more interesting than it would seem after a rough first half.
CFN Prediction: Central Michigan 34 … Toledo 20 ... Line: Central Michigan -17
Must See Rating: (The Legend of Jimmy the Greek 5 … 2012 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions

Bowling Green (4-5) at Miami University (1-9), 6:00 EST, Thursday, November 12

Why to watch: Bowling Green needs a lot of help, but it’s still in the MAC title hunt, or is at least trying for a bowl bid, needing to win out and hoping for the best. First, the team has to start playing better even though it has won three of its last four games. Even with a high-octane passing game that’s fourth in the nation, the Falcons beat Kent State and Buffalo each by one point. This is the end of a brutal run of four road games in five, and then come the relatively easy dates at home against Akron and Toledo to close. Miami broke a long losing streak two weeks ago beating Toledo, and it pushed likely East champion Temple in a 34-32 loss last week. The RedHawks are closing down a miserable season, but they’re playing far better over the last three weeks than they did over the first seven. They close out at home against Buffalo next Wednesday.
Why Bowling Green might win: Bowling Green can’t stop the run at all, and fortunately, Miami can’t run a lick and has to win through the air. The RedHawks have had to cover for its miserable defense by bombing away to keep up, and that plays into the Falcons’ hands. Bowling Green’s big problem to keep opponents in games has turning the ball over, and Miami is worse ranking last in the nation in turnover margin. If MU isn’t +2 against the Falcons, it can’t win.
Why Miami might win: All of a sudden, with the emergence of Zac Dysert, MU has been able to keep up in shootouts. The D has allowed 24 points or more in every game but the 16-6 loss to Northwestern, but unlike early this year when the O was last in the nation in scoring, it’s rocking 85 points in the last three games. Bowling Green has been one dimensional, but that dimension of Tyler Sheehan to Freddie Barnes has been great. On the plus side for MU, everyone has been able to stay around in shootouts because the Falcons can’t do anything else.
Who to watch: Someone has had to benefit from the emergence of Dysert, and it turns out that it’s junior Armand Robinson who is shining in the MU passing game. He had dome nice games early in the year, catching 28 passes over a three-game stretch including ten for 100 yards against Cincinnati, and he has blown up over the last three games catching 24 passes for 301 yards and four touchdowns in the last three outings. While that might be a game for Barnes, it’s enough to give MU a real, live, go-to target.
What will happen: Miami has improved, but not enough. The Bowling Green passing game is too good and Miami is still too shaky defensively to come up with the stop needed late to pull off the upset.
CFN Prediction: Bowling Green 45 … Miami University 34 ... Line: Bowling Green -3.5
Must See Rating: (The Legend of Jimmy the Greek 5 … 2012 1) … 1.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions

Temple (7-2) at Akron (2-7), 8:30 EST, Friday, November 13, ESPNU

Why to watch: Can Temple sidestep the big landmine with Kent State up next and what might be the game for the East title at Ohio? Kent State couldn’t do it, losing to Akron last week, but Temple has been able to come up with win in close game after close game including a battle against Miami last week, winning 34-32 at home. So can Akron keep being the spoiler? Coming off a six-game losing streak, the Zips played their best game of the season (at least against FBS teams) as the offense finally worked a little bit, while the run defense stuffed the Golden Flashes. If Akron is good enough to beat Temple and Kent State, then it’s good enough to beat Bowling Green and Eastern Michigan to close out the year and finish on a high note.
Why Temple might win: Akron’s pass defense has been terrific for most of the year, but it was torched last week by Kent State’s Spencer Keith. The run defense has been the bigger problem, but KSU didn’t really commit to the ground game throwing it 59 times. Temple won’t have the same gameplan. With freshman RB Bernard Pierce making a run at the MAC Player of the Year, but he’ll come in second to Central Michigan’s Dan LeFevour, he’ll be fed the ball at least 30 times and he should be able to tear off at least 150 yards and control the game.
Why Akron might win: So how did Akron finally pull up out of the nosedive and get a win? The offense was balanced with eight players combining for 168 yards and two scores while Patrick Nicely threw for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Temple got bombed on by Miami last week, who hadn’t been bombing on anyone all year, giving up 426 passing yards through the air. Nicely doesn’t have to do that, but he needs to hit on a few early plays against the mediocre Owl secondary while the ground game has to be consistent.
Who to watch: With Vaughn Charlton doing next to nothing for the Temple passing game, Chester Stewart got his shot last week against Miami and completed 6-of-11 passes for 143 yards. That doesn’t mean that Charlton is out of the mix, he was expected to see time against MU, but didn’t. Stewart isn’t going to bomb away, but he was able to come up with a few big plays needed to keep the offense moving. He’s not going to throw for more than 200 yards, but he has to be solid on third downs to keep the Akron D off of Pierce.
What will happen: Akron had its moment last week. It’ll be Pierce, Pierce, more Pierce, and the run defense that will carry Temple to the big win to keep the dream season rolling.
CFN Prediction: Temple 31 … Akron 23 ... Line: Temple -4
Must See Rating: (The Legend of Jimmy the Greek 5 … 2012 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions

Ball State (1-8) at Northern Illinois (6-3), 6:00 EST, Saturday, November 14, ESPNU

Why to watch: Northern Illinois destroyed Eastern Michigan last week, and now all it needs to do is beat a bad 1-8 Ball State team and get by a trip to Ohio to set up a showdown at Central Michigan for the MAC West title. The Huskies have been pounding away with the best ground game in the MAC, while the defense has also been impressive leading the league in scoring D and yards after blowing away Akron and Eastern Michigan over the last two weeks by a combined score of 77 to 16. Ball State beat EMU 29-27 two weeks ago and has been playing better despite the poor record. Five of the eight losses have come by a touchdown or less, and while this season might be in the can, the highlight would be ruining either NIU’s year or screwing up Central Michigan next week.
Why Ball State might win: Stop the run and stop Northern Illinois, and while the Cardinals aren’t great at rushing the passer, they get terrific penetration and aren’t bad against the run. Their problem is stopping efficient, consistent passing games, and NIU is dead last in the league throwing the ball. BSU hasn’t allowed more than 155 yards on the ground in five games, and it has been stellar against MAC ground games. The linebacking corps can’t cover on midrange pass patterns, but it holds up well when pounded on.
Why Northern Illinois might win: It’s going to take several NIU turnovers to lose, and those aren’t going to come in bunches against a Ball State defense that has taken the ball away just 11 times and just twice over the last three games. Yes, the Cardinals have been solid against the run, and yes, they are good enough to keep NIU in check for a while, but they haven’t faced anyone with a ground game like this since Temple, and while the Owls ran for just 106 net yards, Bernard Pierce tore off 125 and two scores. NIU has far more weapons to go to.
Who to watch: Is it going to be DeMarcus Grady or Chandler Harnish at quarterback for NIU, or both? Grady isn’t a passer, but he’s fantastic at running the ball and he has led the team to wins. Harnish is a decent runner, but not like Grady, who ran for 104 yards against EMU last week, and he throws better. If Harnish is 100% from the knee injury that kept him out over the last few games, he’s the main man, but Grady is too dangerous to keep out of the mix so late in the year.
What will happen: NIU won’t rip off big dashes like it did against EMU, but it’ll control the game on the ground throughout and won’t ever be threatened.
CFN Prediction: Northern Illinois 31 … Ball State 17 ... Line: NIU -17.5
Must See Rating: (The Legend of Jimmy the Greek 5 … 2012 1) … 1.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions

Western Michigan (4-6) at Eastern Michigan (0-9), 1:00 EST, Saturday, November 14

Why to watch: In a league full of disappointing teams, Western Michigan might be among the leaders. The Broncos were supposed to an offensive juggernaut, but they’ve struggled to get the attack moving and has lost three of their last four games with losses to Kent State and Michigan State over the last two weeks by a combined score of 75 to 28. As much as WMU has struggled, Eastern Michigan has been infinitely worse losing nine straight games and has only been close in two games. The Eagles are getting worse as the season has gone on, getting run over in a 50-6 loss to Northern Illinois last week and giving up 63 points to Arkansas two weeks ago. In the final home game of the season, a win over the Broncos would make the season far, far brighter before going to Toledo.
Why Western Michigan might win: As bad as the Western Michigan offense has been, it should explode on a Eastern Michigan defense that won’t generate any pressure. The run defense is the worst in America and the pass rush has been disastrous, but the offense has been a bigger problem averaging a MAC low 265 yards per game. All QB Tim Hiller and the Broncos need to do is get up early, and the Eagles won’t have any chance to come back. There just isn’t enough pop to worry about, however ...
Why Eastern Michigan might win: … everyone is getting fat on the WMU defense. With no pass rush and little production against the run, the Broncos haven’t been stopping anyone. Over the last three games, Michigan State cranked out 602 yards, Kent State came up with 477 , and Buffalo rolled for 541. The defense is getting worse instead of better, and while Eastern Michigan might not have a high octane offense, if it was ever going to work, this would be the week.
Who to watch: Eastern Michigan isn’t getting any production out of its quarterbacks. Trying to get something anything going to ignite the offenses, both Kyle McMahon and Alex Gillett are getting time, but neither of them is producing. Against NIU, McMahon completed 3-of-10 passes for 33 yards and Alex Gillett completed a mere 2-of-12 throws for 49 yards, but ran for 36. The last few games are an audition for next year with one of them needing to step up and move the offense. One has to standout.
What will happen: Western Michigan will find its offensive groove again, at least for a week, an QB Tim Hiller will bust out with a huge game. EMU will get its yards, but not enough of them.
CFN Prediction: Western Michigan 45 … Eastern Michigan 31 ... Line: Western Michigan -11
Must See Rating: (The Legend of Jimmy the Greek 5 … 2012 1) … 1.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions