2009 ACC Fearless Predictions
Week 11 ... Nov. 14 Games
Atlantic
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Boston College |
Clemson |
Florida
State |
Maryland |
NC
State |
Wake
Forest
Coastal
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Duke
| Georgia
Tech |
Miami
| North
Carolina |
Virginia |
Virginia Tech
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Week 11,
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Game of the Week
Miami (7-2) at North Carolina (6-3),3:30 EST, ABC, Saturday, November 14
Why to watch: Yeah, North Carolina head coach Butch Davis will be facing his old employer, but that’s no longer the main headline when these programs meet. Instead, this is more about defining the pecking order in a Coastal Division that’s as deep and as talented as it’s ever been. The Tar Heels have gotten off the mat over the last two weekends, upsetting Virginia Tech and derailing Duke to get beyond a dreadful Oct. 22 collapse to Florida State. Finishing strong is the edict for Davis, who’d like his young team to carry some momentum into the postseason and the offseason. Miami still has its sights fixed on a BCS bowl game after destroying Virginia at home, 52-17. Winning the division will require a Georgia Tech loss at Duke earlier in the afternoon, which is improbable. Still, the ‘Canes are sitting at No. 14 in the latest BCS rankings and with three more wins, could be an at-large option.
Why Miami might win: The Hurricane offense is far superior in this game, especially at quarterback, where Jacory Harris holds a wide edge over T.J. Yates. Since nipping Oklahoma on Oct. 3, Miami has scored at least 27 points each game, which is about five more than the futile Heel offense has averaged this fall. Beyond just Harris and his fleet-footed receiving corps, the ‘Canes have also started getting more help from Graig Cooper, Damien Berry, and an improved running game. If they can keep the chains moving, Carolina simply doesn’t have enough firepower or consistency on offense to keep up.
Why North Carolina might win: Yeah, the ‘Canes have been pretty good with the ball, but they’ve met their match in the Carolina D. The Tar Heels lead the ACC in total defense and scoring defense, yielding just 249 yards and 15 points a game, respectively. The unit is so fast and athletic that the Miami skill position players will have a tough time getting out to the edge. The front seven, led by sack-happy DE Robert Quinn and linebackers Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter, has had a penchant for completely taking games over. And in the secondary, corners Charles Brown and Kendric Burney are good enough to neutralize ‘Cane receivers Leonard Hankerson and Travis Benjamin.
Who to watch: With Sean Spence out with a knee injury, Miami needs linebackers Colin McCarthy and Darryl Sharpton to really step up and shut down Carolina backs Shaun Draughn and Ryan Houston. The Heels don’t have a prolific ground game, but if Yates is forced into third-and-long situations, the offense has no chance of extending drives or reaching the end zone. McCarthy and Sharpton have been solid this season, but without Spence’s trademark range, the veterans will be asked to cover a much larger swath of grass.
What will happen: Miami has the better offense. North Carolina is tougher on defense. It shapes up as another ACC game that doesn’t get decided until the waning moments. This one will be played tight and close-to-the-vest throughout, which means special teams and turnovers will be more critical than normal. ‘Cane Matt Bosher vs. Heel Casey Barth is a push at placekicker. The clearest advantage for Miami is at quarterback. In one of those last-team-with-the-ball-wins games, Harris will be the difference, guiding his teammates to another edge-of-you-seat win.
CFN Prediction: Miami 23 … North Carolina 16 ... Line: Miami -3.5
Must See Rating: (The Legend of Jimmy the Greek 5 … 2012 1) … 4
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Florida State (4-5) at Wake Forest (4-6),12:00 EST, Saturday, ESPNU, November 14
Why to watch: Considering their recent expectations and competitiveness in the division, it’s hard to believe Florida State and Wake Forest will be trying to stave off bowl extinction on Saturday. The Seminoles remain a shell of their former selves, losing a fourth quarter lead at Clemson to slip back below the .500 mark. With a trip to Gainesville still on the docket, this is a must-win if the program is going to earn a bonus game in December. If nothing else, this will be the first good chance to watch redshirt freshman QB E.J. Manuel, the former mega-recruit stepping in for injured starter Christian Ponder. After peaking at 4-2 back on Oct. 10, the Demon Deacons have hit bedrock, losing four straight to eliminate any postseason margin for error. Undoubtedly drained by the hard-luck nature of this season, Wake has lost five games by three points or less, including the last three to Navy, Miami, and Georgia Tech.
Why Florida State might win: Although it hasn’t helped playing the Middies and Yellow Jackets recently, Wake Forest remains susceptible to teams that can run the ball. The Seminoles will try to be one of those offenses, especially with Manuel starting for the first time in his career. Jermaine Thomas appears to be up to the challenge, rushing for more than 100 yards in each of the last two games and thriving in the role of feature back. If he can splice through that Deacon D, it’ll help open things up for Manuel to connect with a deep corps of receivers that’s headed by Rod Owens and Bert Reed.
Why Wake Forest might win: Can the situation get any worse for the Florida State defense? Shredded repeatedly over the past month, there’s little chance it’s going to give long-time coordinator Mickey Andrews a positive send-off. Now last in the ACC in rush, pass efficiency, and scoring defense, the ‘Noles will be especially susceptible to Riley Skinner, who has already tossed a career-high 20 touchdown passes and has access to a group of athletic receivers. With limited pressure form a fading FSU pass rush, he’ll have all the time he needs to lock in on Devon Brown, Marshall Williams, or Chris Givens.
Who to watch: On a defense that has largely struggled throughout the season, DT John Russell has been an exception for Wake Forest. A somewhat undersized, high-motor guy, he’s battled his way to a team-high eight tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. The Deacons will want to unnerve Manuel, who could spend part of the afternoon trying to evade the up-the-gut rush of No. 51.
What will happen: Wake Forest can’t seem to win the close ones. Florida State is just plain bad. Something has to budge in Winston-Salem. In a toss-up game, go with the fourth-year veteran quarterback over the rookie making his first start. Skinner will be the difference for the Deacons, throwing a pair of touchdown passes and propelling his school to a fourth straight win over the floundering ‘Noles.
CFN Prediction: Wake Forest 37 … Florida State 30 ... Line: Wake Forest -5
Must See Rating: (The Legend of Jimmy the Greek 5 … 2012 1) … 3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Clemson (6-3) at NC State (4-5),12:00 EST, Saturday, November 14
Why to watch: Georgia Tech is the hottest team in the ACC. Clemson is just a few degrees cooler. The Tigers have rebounded from back-to-back losses a month ago, winning four in-a-row to take control of the Atlantic Division and breaking into the Top 25. Saturday night’s come-from-behind win over Florida State was the best evidence yet that this Tiger team isn’t like the last few editions that raised expectations before failing to reach the bar. It took over a month and some frustrating moments, but NC State has finally stopped the hemorrhaging associated with a four-game losing streak. The Wolfpack got past Maryland last weekend to remain alive for bowl eligibility, but with Virginia Tech and North Carolina still to come, it’ll need to deliver an upset this weekend.
Why Clemson might win: Everything appears to be clicking in Death Valley these days. The defense has been fantastic, RB C.J. Spiller is excelling through pain, and QB Kyle Parker has thrown seven touchdown passes in recent games with Florida State and Miami. The Tigers’ biggest edge will occur when they have the ball, feasting on a Wolfpack defense that’s running out of healthy bodies and has been beaten for at least 30 points in each of the last six games. The playmaking ability of Spiller, backup RB Andre Ellington, and WR Jacoby Ford will be too much for a State D operating on fumes.
Why NC State might win: You really never know what you’re going to get from the Clemson program, especially on the road. The Tigers are 1-2 away from home, losing to lowly Maryland a month ago. The Pack’s hopes, as usual, rest on the right arm of QB Russell Wilson. Although he’s regressed a bit in his sophomore year, he’s still a dangerous distributor, who can also tuck it and run. No. 2 in the ACC in total offense, he has three reliable targets in TE George Bryan and receivers Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams. The NC State offense has been held in check just twice all season, averaging more than 33 points a game.
Who to watch: This is going to be Wilson’s toughest test of the year. Clemson has a terrific secondary that’s picked off 11 passes in the last four games alone and is the reason the school is No. 6 nationally in pass defense. Safeties DeAndre McDaniel and Rashard Hall have combined for 13 interceptions, and corners Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor are two of the best in the league. If Wilson is going to engineer something special, he’ll have to be very careful with his reads.
What will happen: This is a bad match up for NC State. Yeah, Clemson can make you look silly when you least expect it, but not this weekend. The Tigers ability to blanket receivers and pressure the passer will neutralize State’s only chance for the upset. With a handful of short-field opportunities, courtesy of turnovers and special teams, Spiller, Parker, and the offense will punch it in to get the winning streak to five games.
CFN Prediction: Clemson 35 … NC State 21 ... Line: Clemson -7
Must See Rating: (The Legend of Jimmy the Greek 5 … 2012 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 11,
Part 2 (Virginia Tech at Maryland, & more)