2009 Big 12 Fearless Picks - Week 11

Check out the Previews and Predictions for the Week 11 Big 12 Games.

2009 Big 12 Fearless Predictions

Week 11 ... Nov. 14

North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech  
- 2009 CFN Big 12 Expert Picks & Roundup 

Big 12 Fearless Predictions
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- Week 11, Part 2 (Texas A&M at OU, & More) 

Game of the Week

Texas Tech (6-3) at Oklahoma State (7-2), 8:00 EST, Saturday, November 14, ABC

Why to watch: Can Oklahoma State be impressive enough to get into the BCS? Still in the hunt for the Big 12 South, needing to beat Texas Tech this week and Colorado and Oklahoma to close, while hoping for a total meltdown from Texas, the Cowboys have to keep pressing and hope for the best. More realistically, it’s all about style points now as a 10-2 OSU team could potentially get an at-large BCS bid if it looks great in high profile games against the Sooners and the Red Raiders. For Texas Tech, it’s all about closing strong after getting two weeks off to rest up for an interesting finishing kick with Oklahoma coming up next week before closing out at Baylor. For a team in such turmoil and with all the rebuilding needing to be done, finishing strong and getting at least eight wins this regular season would be a nice bridge to next year.
Why Texas Tech might win: It’s always a simple when it comes to Texas Tech; if you can’t stop the pass, you will lose. Oklahoma State’s secondary has been decent at forcing mistakes and the pass rush hasn’t been awful, at least compared to last year, but the pass defense gives up way too many short to midrange passes. Texas was held in check in a blowout loss, but that’s been it for a Cowboy defense that gave up 325 yards to Missouri and 273 and three scores to Texas A&M. The only question is whether or not the Red Raiders can get hot, and considering the attack has been wildly inconsistent, the hope has to be that the two weeks off has allowed for enough practice time to sharpen up.
Why Oklahoma State might win: Tech’s biggest issue this year has been the offensive line. In the past, Red Raider quarterbacks have been able to get the ball out of their hands in a hurry, but they’ve also had time to find the second and third targets without a problem. That hasn’t been the case this year with the passers struggling in their decision making, at times, and under immense pressure far too often. Oklahoma State doesn’t necessarily generate sacks in bunches, but it’s athletic enough up front to get to the quarterback and disrupt the timing of the attack. It also helps the Cowboys that …
Who to watch: … the Texas Tech quarterback situation is a bit of a mess. Taylor Potts is supposed to be the main man, but he has thrown way too many key interceptions and hasn’t been the same since suffering a concussion a few weeks ago. Steven Sheffield isn’t nearly as talented, but he was terrific against Kansas State and appeared to be taking the job by the horns, throwing 12 touchdown passes and two interceptions, before suffering a broken foot. There are suggestions that he’ll be back, but for the moment it’s Potts under center with Seth Doege, and possibly Sheffield, waiting in the wings. If Potts struggles at all, he’ll be quickly yanked.
What will happen: OSU QB Zac Robinson will be his normal, efficient self, the Cowboy running game will be solid, and Tech will end up using at least two quarterbacks and will get spotty production. This is when OSU firmly establishes itself as the second best team in the conference.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 35 … Texas Tech 27 ... Line: Oklahoma State -4
Must See Rating: (The Legend of Jimmy the Greek 5 … 2012 1) … 4
-Free Expert Football Predictions

Missouri (5-4) at Kansas State (6-4), 12:30 EST, Saturday, November 14

Why to watch: All eyes are on Kansas State now to see if Bill Snyder really can pull off another miraculous turnaround and get to the Big 12 Championship. If the Wildcats can pull off the win this week, then it will likely be a one game shot next week at Nebraska for the North title, but the Huskers have been just flaky enough to possibly lose at Kansas and at Colorado to make the road easier. It won’t matter if KSU backdoors its way in, beats Mizzou and Nebraska by 50, and/or gets destroyed by Texas; this has been a special season no matter what happens. Coming off a 17-10 win over Kansas, the Wildcats continue to be unimpressive offensively and timely defensively, but it might take a special effort this week if Missouri plays up to its capabilities. The Tigers were still deep in the hunt to the title going last week, and then they did the inexcusable and lost at home to Baylor 42-30. There’s still plenty of time to get bowl eligible, the Tigers aren’t going to lose to both Iowa State and Kansas, but for a team with a supposedly high-powered offense, an improved defense, and enough talent and athleticism to hang around with anyone in the conference outside of Texas, this has been a mega-clunker of a year with four losses in the last five games. Now it’s time to play the spoiler role and hurt KSU’s title dream and try to crush the bowl hopes of Iowa State and Kansas. The team really is good enough to do it.
Why Missouri might win: Kansas State can’t throw, and Missouri is tremendous against the run. The Wildcats’ inability to throw didn’t matter much last week against a Kansas defense that’s also solid against the run, but the Tigers are better against good ground games holding Colorado to -14 yards and only allowing more than 131 yards to Nevada, the nation’s leading rushing team, and in that game they only gave up 218 yards in the win. The defensive front is fantastic at getting penetration and Sean Weatherspoon and the linebacking corps gobble everything up. If Kansas State can’t at least throw effectively on third downs, the offense will go stagnant.
Why Kansas State might win: Missouri’s running game won’t go anywhere, either. Kansas State can run, but probably won’t, while Missouri can’t run, and has no chance of moving the ball on the ground against a Wildcat run defense that’s holding firm time and again and is great at key moments. However, Missouri’s passing game is just strong enough that it can pull out the win just by hitting on a few big plays. That’s why KSU has to win the turnover battle, and it will. Sixth in the nation and first in the Big 12 in turnover margin, the Wildcats have to be perfect when it comes to ball security, and they have to pick off Tiger QB Blaine Gabbert a few times. Mizzou has only given the ball away 14 times this year, but Gabbert has thrown nine picks in the last five games.
Who to watch: Missouri LB Sean Weatherspoon has raised his game to an All-America level. The team might be crumbling and struggling, but he’s making more plays then ever doing a better job of getting into the backfield and becoming more of a pass rusher. He also continues to be a rock against the run with 33 tackles in his last three games. Expect him to have a few business meetings with Kansas State RB Daniel Thomas, who from an MVP standpoint might be in the hunt for Big 12 Player of the Year. He has put the Wildcat offense on his back with 511 yards in his last four games including a 185-yard effort against Kansas.
What will happen: Kansas State continues to defy logic and reasoning. Missouri is better, but talent level hasn’t mattered much to the Wildcats this year. However, good passing games have been a problem for KSU, and while it destroyed Texas A&M despite giving up a ton of yards and beat a Kansas team with a great passing game that simply isn’t working, Mizzou will put up enough points early to pull off the key win.
CFN Prediction: Missouri 23 … Kansas State 17 ... Line: Pick
Must See Rating: (The Legend of Jimmy the Greek 5 … 2012 1) … 3.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions

Texas (9-0) vs. Baylor (4-5), 12:00 EST, Saturday, November 14

Why to watch: At first this appeared to be nothing more than a formality; the Big 12’s best team would waltz into Waco and the uniforms alone would beat the Big 12’s worst team. But Baylor, all of a sudden, showed a sign of life as Nick Florence bombed his way past Missouri to resuscitate the dream of going bowling. It’s going to take a miracle to get a 13th game, the Bears have to win two out of their last three games and have to go to Texas A&M next week before finishing up with Texas Tech, but at least there’s hope again. Texas can clinch the South with a win and an Oklahoma State loss to Texas Tech, but the division title is hardly on the team’s mind. Four wins away from going to Pasadena to play for the national title, this game is all about staying healthy, continuing to tune up, after working on the passing game last week against UCF, and keeping the momentum rolling.
Why Texas might win: Baylor’s offense hasn’t done anything on the ground since Robert Griffin suffered a knee injury, and it’s not going to do much of anything this week. Texas is giving up just 55 yards per game on the ground, Baylor hasn’t rushed for more than 89 yards in the last five games, and it’ll be a shocker whenever there’s a positive gain. That means it’s up to the BU passing attack to keep up, and that could be a problem considering how erratic the offense has been. Yes, the Texas run defense is the biggest killer, but the secondary has swallowed up everything, too, allowing just 175 yards per game even though it faced the high-powered passing games of Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State. In other words, good luck moving the ball, Baylor.
Why Baylor might win: Texas is way due for a letdown. It went through the motions and beat UCF last week in a blowout, and there’s no way the team will keep its mental sharpness with Kansas and Texas A&M still to deal with. Missouri was able to get pressure into the backfield last week against the Bears and the passing production was still there. With no one giving the Bears a shot, they can fire away at will, and while they can’t match the Longhorns punch for punch, they have the potential to make this a battle if everything breaks the right way and if …
Who to watch: … Nick Florence stays hot. The true freshman was thrown to the wolves and has been terrific. Remember, head coach Art Briles set the wheels in motion for the current Houston passing juggernaut, and he’s doing wonders with Florence, who has thrown for 200 yards or more in five games and set a school record 427 yards and three touchdowns last week against Missouri. Can he outbomb Colt McCoy? Not if Jordan Shipley stays hot. The Texas receiver set a school record with 273 receiving yards last week against UCF, and has caught 75 passes for 1,050 yards and six scores on the year to go along with his exceptional punt return abilities.
What will happen: McCoy can tie former Georgia star David Greene for the most career wins as a starting quarterback. He’ll get 42 this week and will set the bar even higher over the next few weeks.
CFN Prediction: Texas 41 … Baylor 13 ... Line: Texas -23.5
Must See Rating: (The Legend of Jimmy the Greek 5 … 2012 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions   

- Week 11, Part 2 (Texas A&M at OU, & More)