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Mr Pac-10’s Weekly Review
Gabe Miller
Mr Pac Ten
Posted Nov 13, 2009


Collegefootballnews’ Matthew Smith Reviews all the Pac-10 Games, Week Ten

Rising:
Oregon St: Huge effort by the Beavers.
Stanford: Wazzu is terrible, but 58 points is still 58 points.
UCLA: They desperately needed this win, and found a way to get it done.

Hovering:
Arizona: They took care of business.
USC: Well, at least they won.

Falling:
Arizona St: They needed a win, and they didn’t get it.
Washington St: Even worse than their usual effort.
Washington: They needed a win, and they didn’t get it.
Cal: Another ugly loss for the Bears.
Oregon: Their national title dreams are officially over, and their Rose Bowl dreams just took a big hit.

@ Stanford , Oregon (-7)
my pick: Oregon 31, @ Stanford 21

What to take from this:
If you’re Oregon:

A huge loss for the Ducks. Any chance of somehow sneaking into the national title game discussion is over, and now they’re out of margin for error. Unless they sweep Arizona and Oregon St, they’ll need help to make the Rose Bowl. The dream is still alive, but it’s starting to look ill.

If you’re Stanford:
This was a huge win for the Cardinal. Barring a truly wacky series of events, they’re finally back in a bowl game for the first time since 2001, and they made a huge national splash while doing it. That said, the defense sucked again. Half of this team (offense) is fantastic, but the other half (defense) remains a disaster.

Oregon St (-7) 31, @ Cal 14
my pick: @ Cal 35, Oregon St 31

What to take from this:
If you’re Oregon St:

This was an extremely impressive effort by the Beavers. This is only the third Pac-10 road win anyone’s had over a decent to good team (USC at Cal and Arizona at Oregon St were the others). Moreover, they played a complete game in dominating the Bears. The defense has been a big issue for most of the year, but it played great here. They need plenty of help, but don’t sleep on this team’s Rose Bowl chances. They’ve got two easy games, and if they can pull an upset at Autzen, this could well be the 2009 Pac-10 champ.

If you’re Cal:
Cal has done well against mediocre to lousy teams, but once they play teams with a pulse, they play dead. With Arizona and Stanford still to come, this could easily be the start of a losing streak, especially now that their best player is done for who knows how long. This team is in major trouble.

@ UCLA (-5) 24, Washington 23
my pick: @ UCLA 27, Washington 17

What to take from this:
If you’re Washington:

This team is far better than it was last year. They’ve won some games, and they’ve competed against pretty much everyone. That said, this game helped make it clear that there is still a lot of work left to do. Barring a miracle run, they’re home for the holidays yet again.

If you’re UCLA:
It was ugly, and it was too close for comfort, but they finally won. Now all they have to do is avoid screwing up at Pullman and hold serve at home against ASU, and they’re back to the postseason. There’s plenty of work to be do, and they need to up their level of play, but after finally breaking the losing streak there’s good reason to believe they can find a way to get it done.

USC (-10) 14, @ Arizona St 9
my pick: USC 31, @ Arizona St 14

What to take from this:

If you’re USC:
Once again, the Trojans make it clear that they just aren’t all that good. They were great at Cal, and strong at Ohio St, but other than that, they just haven’t been a great team. Good, sure. Very good, maybe. But definitely not great. All the rest of their games are in the Coliseum, so they have a shot at running the table, but this almost certainly won’t be a Rose Bowl team, and unless they really show something special over the next few weeks you have to wonder whether they really deserve a Fiesta Bowl or Sugar Bowl berth. Yes, they’ll get one if they win out (and it might be on the table even if they drop one more, though that’d be much tougher), but this is no longer the sort of team you automatically trust to win it. Next year should be back to usual, but it’s becoming more and more clear that this year is simply different.

If you’re Arizona St:
Once again, they had a game they really needed to have, and once again they couldn’t get it done. They competed against USC, just like they competed against Cal, just like they competed against Georgia, but at some point they actually have to win. Now, a bowl berth is a long shot. That great 2007 season is becoming more and more of a distant memory.

@ Arizona (-32) 48, Washington St 7
my pick: @ Arizona 42, Washington St 7

What to take from this:

If you’re Washington St:
Another ass-kicking by a team way better than them. Not much to say at this point.

If you’re Arizona:
The Wildcats played really well in this game, but it’s hard to say how meaningful it was, given how bad Wazzu is. Still, this was a nice confidence booster.

Pac-10 Games Record:
This Week: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS
Season: 44-15 SU, 22-31-2 ATS

National Games of the Week:

@ Alabama (-7.5) 24, LSU15
my pick: @ Bama 28, LSU 14

Ohio St 24, @ Penn St (-5) 7
my pick: @ Penn St 24, Ohio St 21

@ Nebraska 10, Oklahoma (-4.5) 3
my pick: Oklahoma 28, @ Nebraska 21

National Games Record:
This Week: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS
Season: 15-15 SU, 14-15-1 ATS

Bad Lines

Iowa -15.5 vs Northwestern
Missed by 22.5 points and outright upset

Duke +10 @ UNC
Missed by 3 points.

Idaho +7.5 vs Fresno
Missed by 2.5 points

SMU -17.5 vs Rice
Missed by 14.5 points

Georgia Tech -14 vs Wake
Missed by 11 points.

Bad Lines Record:
This Week: 0-5
Season: 30-24-1

Mr Pac-10's 2009 Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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