2009 SEC Fearless Picks, (UK at Ga, & more)

Previews and Predictions for the Week 12 SEC Games, Part 2

2009 SEC Fearless Predictions

Week 12 ... Nov. 21 Games, Part 2

East | Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | South Carolina | Tennessee | Vanderbilt 
West Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | LSU | Ole Miss | Miss State
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- Week 12, Part 1 (LSU at Ole Miss and more)  

Florida International (3-7) at Florida (10-0) , 12:30 EST, Saturday, November 21

Why to watch: Florida gets to measure itself against Alabama. The Tide won the season opener over the Golden Panthers 40-14, and while the Gators won’t have any problems getting the win, now it’s all about flexing some muscles. For being the No. 1 team in the nation, Florida has looked awfully un-No. 1 like with sluggish wins over Vanderbilt and Georgia over the last two weeks. There haven’t been any real threats outside of the close call over Arkansas, and it’s almost as if the team is waiting for the lights to go on before it turns its game up a few notches. At least that’s the hope in Gainesville. If Florida doesn’t win this game against FIU by more than four touchdowns, then it really might be time to get worried. The Golden Panthers aren’t totally miserable, and they’ve been competitive throughout the year despite losing seven games giving Rutgers a push and fighting with Troy in a 42-33 win, but this game will be nothing more than a live scrimmage. FIU gets its rivalry date with Florida Atlantic in the early part of December, while Florida faces Florida State next week before dealing with Alabama for the SEC title.
Why FIU might win: Florida doesn’t score. FIU’s aggressive defense takes plenty of chances and isn’t bad at making thing happen behind the line; there will be a few shots on Tim Tebow. The Golden Panthers would welcome the typical Gator dive play to take the pressure off a secondary that can’t stop anyone, and Florida isn’t going to take any crazy chances. Florida isn’t going to be interested in making a statement, because it doesn’t have to. It’ll be going through the motions and will sleepwalk through the game hoping no one gets hurt, and every minute that FIU can stay alive will be a minute that the Gators have to try to turn the intensity back up.
Why Florida might win: FIU couldn’t handle Troy’s attack in a 42-33 loss. Florida blasted the Trojans 56-6 in September. Considering head coach Mario Cristobal has a defensive background, he’s not getting much from his D this year ranking 118th in the nation in yards allowed. The offense that’s averaging just 323 yards per game doesn’t have any prayer of keeping up, even though QB Paul McCall and the passing game haven’t been bad.
Who to watch: Urban Meyer has received his fair share of criticism this year for a variety of issues, and none of it would be louder and more angry than if he plays Tim Tebow for more than a few series. Not only do the Gators need Tebow to be healthy, but they need him to be razor sharp for the last two games, which means more production will come from the backs, and QB John Brantley needs to be in sooner than later. There haven’t been enough ugly blowouts to get the talented sophomore too much work, but he has been fantastic when given the chance, completing 25-of-33 passes on the year for 251 yards and four scores. In a game like this, he should be playing from the start, but he’ll likely be the main man in the second half.
What will happen: Florida will call its shot. It’ll take a big early lead, Tebow will get out early, and the defense will do the rest.
CFN Prediction: Florida 45 … FIU 7 ... Line: Florida -43.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 1.5
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Vanderbilt (2-9) at Tennessee (5-5), 12:00 EST, Saturday, November 21

Why to watch: The Tennessee program has had better weeks. First came and ugly 42-17 blasting at Ole Miss, with Dexter McCluster running through the Vol defense like it was standing still, and then came the real problems as freshmen Janzen Jackson, a starting safety, super-recruit WR NuKeese Richardson, and defensive back Mike Edwards were suspended after being charged for attempted armed robbery. Fortunately for a Volunteer team that needs this win to become bowl eligible, or it’ll have to win at Kentucky next week, Vanderbilt comes in on Senior Day. The Commodores have been awful with just one win against an FBS team, Rice, and with the offense getting worse instead of better. This is the team’s season finale, and while it’ll face a Tennessee team in need of the win, this is the last chance to make a statement in a brutal season.
Why Vanderbilt might win: Can Tennessee’s head really be screwed on straight after the last seven days? Forgetting the distractions, the team has had to deal with the scrutiny of being run through by Ole Miss. Vanderbilt can’t throw the ball a lick, but it runs well with decent production from the quarterbacks. The O line is a relative strength and it should be able to pound away a bit on a Tennessee D that’s allowing 143 rushing yards per game. While there won’t be any long dashes, the Commodores should be able to crank out at least 150 yards and could control the clock.
Why Tennessee might win: Vanderbilt doesn’t score. Last week’s gashing aside, the Tennessee defense has been solid in SEC play allowing just 13 points to South Carolina, 12 to Alabama, and 19 to Georgia. Outside of the wins over Western Carolina and Rice, Vanderbilt has had just one good offensive half all year, and that came in a 56-31 loss to Georgia Tech when the O fell flat in the second half. Tennessee should do a good job with the outside distractions; Kiffin, for all his flaws, has put together a veteran coaching staff that knows how to deal with storms like this. If anything, the team might be more focused.
Who to watch: Richardson had future star written all over him, but for the moment, the loss of Janzen Jackson hurts the most. Not that Eric Berry can’t pick up the slack in the secondary, and not that there’s any threat of a Vanderbilt passing game, but Jackson was turning into a good run stopping free safety. His loss means that fellow freshman Darren Myles will have to step in and produce, but he’s struggling through a back injury and will be limited if he’s able to go.
What will happen: Tennessee will come out and play extremely well, but it’ll be more because the team is ticked off after the Ole Miss loss than because of any distractions. Watch out for a tremendous day from the defense.
CFN Prediction: Tennessee 24 … Vanderbilt 3 ... Line: Tennessee -17
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … X
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Kentucky (6-4) at Georgia (6-4) , 7:45 EST, Saturday, November 21, ESPN2

Why to watch: It’s bowl positioning time for two teams having the same seasons, but with different perceptions. The Bulldogs have won two straight and came up with its biggest win of the year with a nice victory over Auburn, but it has to go to Georgia Tech to deal with the nightmare of a Paul Johnson rushing attack to close out the regular season. Meanwhile, Kentucky has to face Tennessee to close out the season and could use a win over the Bulldogs to be in a position to finish in the top three in the East. For a team lacking a slew of stars and struggling through injuries, UK has done a great job of using the easy second half of the year to win four of its last five games. Both teams have beaten Auburn, both teams got blasted by Florida, and both teams have been entertaining, but not always because they’ve been good.
Why Kentucky might win: The defense has been terrific. There were problems in back-to-back games against Florida and Alabama, but otherwise, the Wildcats have done a terrific job of keeping almost everyone in check. There was the nightmare of a day in a loss to Mississippi State, getting gashed for 348 rushing yards, but Georgia doesn’t run well. The secondary is decent at taking the ball away and is ninth in the nation in passing yards allowed. UK might have issues in the backfield, but there won’t be too much of a concern about time to work against a good Georgia pass rush, but not an elite one. It doesn’t produce on a consistent basis and should have problems against an O line that’s great at protecting the passer.
Why Georgia might win: This isn’t a great matchup for the UK offense. There’s no passing game whatsoever for the Bulldogs to worry about while the run defense should be able to keep the ground attack in check. For all the problems the defense has had this year allowing points and having issues in big games, it hasn’t been bad when it came to giving up yards in chunks. Georgia knows exactly what UK is going to want to do, and it’s a question of stopping it. The Wildcats will use a variety of players to run the ball, will incorporate Randall Cobb in a several ways, and it won’t try to make anything happen deep down the field because …
Who to watch: The quarterback situation is a problem. Starter Mike Hartline gave it a shot against Vanderbilt, but his injured knee isn’t responding and now he’s out for the season. That means it’s up to true freshman Morgan Newton to take the reins in a full-time role, and while he completed 20-of-29 passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns against Eastern Kentucky, he’s still raw. Very, very talented, but raw. The offense will use Cobb, the team’s best receiver, under center in Wildcat formations, but the running game will rely on Derrick Locke, the underappreciated junior who has been terrific in SEC play with 103 yards against Mississippi State and 144 yards and a key touchdown against Vanderbilt. He’ll be fed the ball 25 times, and he has to come close to hitting 100 yards.
What will happen: It’ll be a good game. Georgia will struggle to get the passing game going with star WR A.J. Green out with a shoulder injury, but the defense will do just enough against the UK ground game to get the win.
CFN Prediction: Georgia 26 … Kentucky 20 ... Line: Georgia -8.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 3
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- Week 12, Part 1 (LSU at Ole Miss and more)