2009 SEC Fearless Predictions
Week 12 ... Nov. 21 Games
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Florida
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Georgia
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Kentucky
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South Carolina
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Tennessee
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Vanderbilt
West
Alabama
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Arkansas
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Auburn
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LSU |
Ole Miss
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Miss State
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Week 11, Part 2 (UK at
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Game of the Week
LSU (8-2) at Ole Miss (7-3) , 3:30 EST, Saturday, November 21, CBS
Why to watch: The issue of who’s No. 3 in the SEC should be settled in Oxford. For all the issues and all the problems Ole Miss has had this year, in the end, it might all work out if it can beat LSU this week and Mississippi State to close. The Rebels would be 9-3, with a New Year’s Day bowl locked up, and would have a chance at a ten-win season. Basically, they’d be exactly where most predicted they’d be at the start of the season. But LSU isn’t going to go down easily. This is a flawed team in several ways, but it has managed to keep on winning with the two losses coming to Florida and Alabama; there’s no shame there. If there wasn’t the silly rule about only two teams from a conference being allowed in the BCS, LSU would be a lock for one of the games, but as is, it’ll either be in the Cotton Bowl or in a premier Florida bowl against a Big Ten team with a win in the final two games. The Tigers are coming off a shaky performance against Louisiana Tech, and while they’re bruised and beaten up, they need to play far better than they have over the first ten games of the season to get by Ole Miss. The regular season finale against Arkansas won’t be a layup, either, for a team that struggles to put points on the board and might be in trouble against Ryan Mallett and the Hog passing game. But for now, just getting past a tough road game like this would be a major positive considering the Rebels are coming off a blasting of a not-that-bad Tennessee. Even though it’s late November, the two teams are trying to figure out who they are and what they do best. This game will likely define each team’s season.
Why LSU might win: The defensive line has improved as the season has gone on. Mediocre over the first half, the Tiger defensive front is doing more to make plays in the backfield and has remained against the run, for the most part. Alabama was held to 176 yards, but a lousy Louisiana Tech attack gained 178 last week. However, the Tigers have only allowed three rushing touchdowns, with two coming from Mississippi State six games ago. While this might not be the brick wall of a D that LSU is used to, it’s been great at keeping points off the board. If Ole Miss goes back to being the sputtering Ole Miss of the first half of the season, this will be a low scoring game and that favors the Tigers. The firepower isn’t there to keep up in a shootout.
Why Ole Miss might win: Who gave LSU problems last week? Daniel Porter and Tyronne Duplessis, two 5-9ish, 185-poundish, speedy Louisiana Tech backs who didn’t break loose for too many plays, but were productive against the fast Tiger D. Ole Miss RB Dexter McCluster is a similar back, but he’s faster, quicker, and a whole lot better. On a tear, he ran for 123 yards against Arkansas, 186 against Auburn, rested against Northern Arizona, and ripped apart Tennessee for 282 yards and four touchdowns. LSU is good enough and smart enough to keep McCluster in check, which makes life far easier for QB Jevan Snead, who has settled down and has been solid over the a meltdown against Alabama. Basically, Ole Miss has more mature offensive talent. LSU has more talent, but Ole Miss gets more out of its playmakers.
Who to watch: The most valuable player in the SEC this season might be LSU QB Jordan Jefferson. No, he’s not the best player or the most outstanding, but if anyone questioned his worth to the team, check out backup Jarrett Lee’s 7-of-22, 105-yard, one score performance against Louisiana Tech. LSU can’t win this game with Lee, but Jefferson is coming off an ankle injury suffered against Alabama and won’t quite be 100%. While Jefferson is hardly Peyton Manning, he has thrown 12 touchdown passes and just four interceptions. He’ll have to play, and he’ll have to be strong for the Tigers to come away with a win.
What will happen: Don’t expect a shootout. Ole Miss is 12th in the nation in scoring defense, along just under 16 points per game, while LSU is tenth in scoring D allowing 13.7 points per outing. If this was in Baton Rouge, the pick would be LSU, but with the home field and with a little more offensive pop, Ole Miss pulls out a tough, hard-fought win.
CFN Prediction: Ole Miss 23 … LSU 16 ... Line: Ole Miss -3.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 4
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Mississippi State (4-6) at Arkansas (6-4) , 12:21 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: Arkansas is starting to hum. It was going to take a little while for Bobby Petrino to change around a Houston Nutt running team into a dangerous, high-octane passing squad, and it’s happening. They have won three straight games, and while the Hogs put up 63 points on Eastern Michigan and 56 against Troy (who’s going to end up winning the Sun Belt), they really have been stronger offensively. At the end of a four game homestand, they can secure a strong bowl bid with a win, and they can put themselves in a good position for a New Year’s Day bowl by winning this week and beating LSU in Baton Rouge next week. No matter what, Arkansas will get a 13th game, while Mississippi State is fighting for its bowl life. The Bulldogs were all jacked up to make a big statement with everyone watching last week’s game against Alabama, and nothing happened in a 31-3 loss. Now they need to beat Arkansas and Ole Miss to go bowling. There have only been three wins over FBS teams, Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee, and Kentucky, and now it’s time for Dan Mullen to come up with a big victory that will open up the eyes of the rest of the SEC.
Why Mississippi State might win: While the Arkansas run defense has been better, it’s a bit of a mirage. The stats look great after playing Eastern Michigan, South Carolina, and Troy, but Ole Miss ran for 221 yards in a Rebel win. Auburn tore off 242 yards against the Hogs, and Georgia ran for 155 yards in a Dawg victory. The defensive front is decent at getting into the backfield, but if good backs can get past the line and into the second level, big yards are there to be had. MSU was shut down by Florida and Alabama, but has been terrific on the ground against everyone else including 348 yards and three scores against Kentucky, 260 yards against Vanderbilt, and 151 yards against LSU. Anthony Dixon could control the game and keep Ryan Mallett and the Hog attack off the field.
Why Arkansas might win: If Arkansas gets up at all Mississippi State will have a hard time coming back. Forget about a Bulldog passing game; there isn’t one. The MSU secondary has been solid, but it only faced one high-powered passing game and got destroyed by Case Keenum and Houston allowing 434 yards and four touchdowns in a loss. The Arkansas offensive line isn’t great, but it hasn’t been awful in pass protection considering Mallett doesn’t move. Fortunately for the Hogs, MSU doesn’t have enough of a pass rush to throw off the passing timing.
Who to watch: Mallett has been out of his mind. With 2,882 yards, he has set the Arkansas record for passing yards in a season, and there are plenty more to come. He was held to 160 yards by Alabama, but he has been fantastic against everyone else with 408 yards and five touchdowns against Georgia early this year, and he has stepped up his play again over the last few weeks with 329 yards against South Carolina and 405 yards and five touchdowns against Troy. However, he threw a pick against the Trojans, which is noteworthy since he hadn’t given one away in the previous five games and has given up just four interceptions on the year.
What will happen: Mississippi State will make this an interesting game because of the ground attack, but Arkansas will get up in the first half and won’t be threatened in the second. The Bulldogs won’t do much with the passing game to get back in the battle.
CFN Prediction: Arkansas 31 … Mississippi State 16 ... Line: Arkansas -10.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
UT Chattanooga (6-4) at Alabama (10-0) , 12:21 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: Not expected to do anything this year in the SoCon, Chattanooga has done a nice job under first year head coach Ross Huesman going 6-4 thanks to a passing game that’s night-and-day better than 2008, while the defense has been strong from the start. The Mocs, of course, aren’t going to beat Alabama, but they aren’t going to be a total pushover. The Tide can go through the motions and win, with its head and focus squarely on the huge games ahead against Auburn and Florida, but the last thing Nick Saban wants is for his team to take a step back after a fantastic performance in what might have been a trap game against Mississippi State.
Why Chattanooga might win: The lines are good. This is a veteran team that made an immediate turnaround under Huesman by playing well up front, and it all starts with an offensive line that’s terrific at protecting the passer. It hasn’t faced a defensive front line Alabama’s, but it has only allowed just eight sacks on the year and has a nice downfield passing game. The defensive line is terrific at getting into the backfield, and if it can bother Greg McElroy and the Alabama passing game at all, this might not be a brutal blowout.
Why Alabama might win: The Mocs are one dimensional on offense, and that one dimension should be shut down. The only possible way the Tide would have problems in a game like this would be against either a quirky spread that had a couple of dangerous playmakers, or against a balanced attack that could mix it up a bit. Chattanooga doesn’t run at all, and while the passing game is good, it’s not FBS strong. Bama is 11th in the nation in pass defense, and it’s not going to get torched this week.
Who to watch: This is the game to sit Mark Ingram and most of the key players so they’re rested and ready for the showdown against Auburn six days later, but it’ll be important to get McElroy more work. The junior appears to be all about momentum and confidence. It’s not that he lacks confidence, but he’s not going to take any risks when he knows the team can win with the running game and defense. To improve enough to win three more games, he has to throw like he has over the last few weeks with 276 yards against LSU and 192-yard and two touchdowns last week against MSU on a 13-of-18 day. The more live reps he can get, the better.
What will happen: Chattanooga will leave it all on the field in its final game of the season, but Bama won’t have any problems and can start gameplanning for Auburn now.
CFN Prediction: Alabama 37 … Chattanooga 3 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 1.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 11, Part 2 (UK at
Georgia, FIU at Florida and more)
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