2009 Big 12 Fearless Predictions
Week 12 ... Nov. 21
North
Colorado |
Iowa St
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Kansas
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Kansas
State
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Missouri
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Nebraska
South
Baylor |
Oklahoma
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Oklahoma
State
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Texas
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Texas A&M
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Texas Tech
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2009 CFN Big 12 Expert Picks & Roundup
Big 12 Fearless Predictions
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Week 12,
Part 2 (Kansas at Texas, & More)
Game of the Week
Kansas State (6-5) at Nebraska (7-3), 7:45 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: When college football fans like to throw out the “every game matters” cliché, it truly applies to this week’s game for Kansas State. The Wildcats have hit the six-win mark, but thanks to poor scheduling, playing two FCS teams (UMass and Tennessee Tech) and with a loss to Louisiana-Lafayette in what was supposed to be a cupcake game, they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Not only will they get a 13th game with a win, but they’ll get a 14th as the North representative in the Big 12 Championship. Missouri or Iowa State could technically tie for the title, but KSU and Nebraska win all the tie-breakers. For the Huskers, a win would mean a trip back to the Big 12 title game for the first time since 2006, and it would be a tremendous next step in the Bo Pelini era. Thanks to a stifling defense, the Huskers are on a three-game winning streak, with the D playing well in a loss to Iowa State before the run of wins. Because of Pelini and the D, Nebraska has a shot at giving Texas a hard time in the championship game, but first comes the must-win game against Bill Snyder’s resilient squad. The Huskers still have to play Colorado next Friday, but that game won’t matter for anything more than the bowl pecking order.
Why Kansas State might win: For Kansas State to pull this off, all the periphery parts need to be working and all the breaks need to go their way. Brandon Banks needs to come up with a big kick return or three, and KSU has to be +2, at the very minimum, in turnover margin and might have to be around +4 if the running game isn’t working. That’s a possibility considering the Wildcats are 19th in the nation and second in the Big 12 in turnover margin helped by 24 takeaways, and Nebraska has been disastrous at times turning the ball over. Overall, Nebraska hasn’t been too bad, with eight of the 23 turnovers coming in the loss to Iowa State, but there will be a few fumble chances and KSU has to pounce on every one of them.
Why Nebraska might win: This is an awful matchup for Kansas State. The Huskers can be beaten by a decent passing game and nice offensive balance, if everything is working, but they’re great at stomping strong running games. Virginia Tech was held to just 86 yards on the ground, and only Iowa State has gained more than 100 yards rushing against the Huskers in the last six games. The swarming defensive front should be all over Daniel Thomas from the start, meaning Grant Gregory and the KSU passing game will have to be effective early. They won’t be. On the other side, KSU doesn’t generate enough pressure to bother …
Who to watch: … Nebraska junior QB Zac Lee, who was benched for a stretch but came back to have an efficient, effective 13-of-21, 196-yard, 53-yard rushing day in last week’s win over Kansas. He wasn’t being blamed by the coaching staff for the team’s offensive problems, but he threw three interceptions in the loss to Iowa State and the team was looking for a spark. Cody Green was fine, but with a possible North title looming, it wasn’t time to experiment with a true freshman under center. Lee doesn’t have to be Drew Brees, but he needs to keep the turnover to a minimum, as in none, and he has to do just enough to keep the heat off Roy Helu and the running game. The Nebraska defense can win this game; it’s up to Lee to not get in the way.
What will happen: The Husker defense will pitch a near-perfect game to overcome a shaky performance from the offense. The turnaround won’t be complete under Pelini, but it’ll be a big step forward.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 24 … Kansas State 9 ... Line: Nebraska -16.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 4.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Colorado (3-7) at Oklahoma State (8-2), 7:30 EST, Thursday, November 19, ESPN
Why to watch: For those of you without any fantasy interest in the Carolina – Miami game, this should be a more interesting matchup with far more interesting storylines. Oklahoma State needs the style points. After beating Texas Tech, the Cowboys have the potential to get into the at-large BCS bowl discussion with a win this week and a victory over Oklahoma next week. At 10-2, they’ll have an argument to go to the Fiesta Bowl, assuming Texas wins the Big 12 title, as the league’s No. 2 team, but they have to look more attractive. Yeah, they’ve won seven of their last eight games, with the only loss coming against Texas during the stretch, but for a team that’s supposed to be thrilling offensively, it’s been a bit of a zzzzzzzzzzzzz when it comes to national buzz. But Oklahoma State will be fine and will go to a good bowl game no matter what happens over the final two games. Colorado’s future is murky, and it might depend on what happens over the final two games. The disastrous year rolls on for Dan Hawkins with a loss at Iowa State last week ruining any bowl dreams, but if his Buffs can beat Oklahoma State this week and Nebraska next week, arguably the No. 2 and 3 teams in the league, the coaching situation becomes a lot more interesting.
Why Colorado might win: The only thing Colorado can do well (it’s all relative) is throw, even with Tyler Hansen at quarterback in place of Cody Hawkins, and Oklahoma State will give up yards. Granted, facing Houston and Texas Tech will skew the stats, but the Cowboys have allowed more than 300 yards in four games. The only shot the Buffs have will be to bomb away, and with nothing to lose now that a bowl is out of the question, it could be bombs away. This has been a very tight, very inconsistent team all season long, and now there could be a chance that everyone exhales and just plays. However …
Why Oklahoma State might win: … the OSU secondary has been terrific at taking the ball away. The pass defense might be giving up yards, but it has also picked off three passes in each of the last two games like Perrish Cox, an All-America candidate who took two away from Texas Tech and one against Iowa State. Offensively, yes, Oklahoma State hasn’t been a juggernaut, but it’s the 2007 New England Patriots compared to Colorado. The Buffs are dead last in the league in yards and don’t have any firepower without a total brain cramp from the opposing defense. If OSU gets up at all, it’s over. The inefficient Buff passing game might get yards, but it’s not going to be able to come back to pull off a win.
Who to watch: After taking a bad helmet-to-helmet hit against Texas Tech and getting knocked out, Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson is trying to come back to play this week. However, backup Alex Cate took most of the reps this week and is hardly a bad option if he gets the starting call. A terrific recruit with big-time passing potential, the junior has been stuck behind Robinson for the last few years and will likely be the main man next year. Oklahoma State doesn’t necessarily need Robinson to beat Colorado, but he will be needed to have a shot at Oklahoma. Cate has a live arm, but he’s unproven.
What will happen: Oklahoma State won’t be pretty, but it’ll have few problems getting past a punchless Buff team that will look like it’s playing in mud against the speedy Cowboy D.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 34 … Colorado 17 ... Line: Oklahoma State -16.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Oklahoma (6-4) at Texas Tech (6-4), 12:30 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: It’s been a strange and disappointing year for both teams, and the winner will be in the hunt for a nice bowl bid while the loser will have to scramble. Both teams are going bowling, but with things getting a bit bizarre, it’s a make-or-break game for each teams’ season. Oklahoma came off a rough 10-3 loss at Nebraska with Landry Jones throwing five interceptions to blast Texas A&M 65-10 with a brilliant day from Jones. With a win this week and a win next week against Oklahoma State, the Sooners can get through its rocky season with a not-that-bad 8-4 record. On the other side is Texas Tech, who didn’t have the high hopes of OU coming into the season with a star quarterback in Sam Bradford, there was supposed to be a bit more production with losses in two of its last three games and coming off a tough game against Oklahoma State. The passing game is still the Texas Tech passing game, averaging 391 yards per game, but it’s not throwing a scare into anyone like it has in the past. However, if the Red Raiders can beat OU, then with an apparent layup against Baylor to close out the regular season, they might end up being the No. 3 team in the Big 12 behind Texas and OSU.
Why Oklahoma might win: Does Oklahoma want to get the offense moving on the ground or through the air? Texas Tech gets gouged on a weekly basis in one way or the other, having problems against Oklahoma State’s running game last week, Texas A&M’s ground attack a few weeks ago, New Mexico’s passing game in early September, and Nebraska’s passing attack a month ago. The Sooner passing game was breathtaking last week against A&M, and while it’s not as good as last year’s juggernaut, it should be able to bomb away for over 300 yards. Helping the cause is a ground game that finally showed up with a season-high (against FBS teams) 248 rushing yards and three scores against the Aggies. Defensively, the fantastic OU defensive front should get steady pressure on Taylor Potts, and whoever else ends up playing quarterback at times for the Red Raiders, but …
Why Texas Tech might win: … Texas Tech will get into the backfield, too. The Red Raiders are tied with Oklahoma for second in the nation in sacks, and while Jones has been great at times, he needs time to throw. Tech doesn’t force a lot of turnovers, but Jones has the meltdown potential to give the Red Raider offense several short fields to work with. It also might help that OU is playing outside of Oklahoma, with the program playing freakishly well at home and strangely mediocre time and again outside of its state’s borders. As much as Texas Tech has been struggling, OU is ripe for the picking and can be beaten by a sharp team. Tech might be flaky, but it could be flaky in a good way this week if Potts gets hot.
Who to watch: Potts wasn’t bad against Oklahoma State, completing 19-of-35 passes for 190 yards and a touchdown, but he wasn’t stellar. Steven Sheffield, just a few weeks after suffering a broken foot, came in and completed 16-of-23 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown, but he threw two picks. Head coach Mike Leach won’t be afraid the switch up quarterbacks at any time to find the right fit, but the short leash could be a problem for both banged up passers. The offense hasn’t had a Texas Tech-like rhythm, and while that might be expected somewhat considering this is a rebuilding year, the last thing the team can afford to have against a defense this strong is mediocre play from its quarterback. On the other side, Jones threw five touchdown passes last week, threw four against Kansas State, and has 22 on the year to go along with 12 interceptions. He has no fear with his arm, and while he’ll make mistakes, he’s showing good resiliency, a short memory, and better decision-making ability … outside of the Nebraska debacle.
What will happen: The defensive pressure from the Red Raiders will bother Jones more than the defensive pressure from the Sooners will bother Potts and/or Sheffield. Oklahoma is 1-4 this year outside of the state of Oklahoma … never screw with a streak.
CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 34 … Oklahoma 31 ... Line: Oklahoma -6.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 3.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 12,
Part 2 (Kansas at Texas, & More)
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