2009 Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
Week 12 ... Nov. 21 Games
Arkansas State |
Florida Atlantic
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Florida International
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MTSU
North Texas
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Troy
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UL Lafayette
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UL Monroe |
Western Kentucky
Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
Florida Atlantic (3-6) at Troy (7-3) , 4:15 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: Before the season began, this was the circle game on the Sun Belt calendar. This was supposed to be for the Sun Belt title, or at least play a big role in the race, and it still does. Sort of. Troy is the best team in the conference, but it still has to win one of its final two games to earn the Sun Belt title, and can clinch this week, while Florida Atlantic is looking for something to build its season around. There’s still time to finish at .500, and theoretically, the Owls could win the Sun Belt title by winning out and getting a ton of help. With a win over Arkansas State, FAU stilled a two-game slide, and if it can pull off the upset this week, it should be smooth sailing the rest of the way with Western Kentucky and FIU to close things out.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: Even without Rusty Smith, the passing game still works. Jeff Van Camp threw for 242 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win over Arkansas State, and to have a shot against a Troy team with a better offense than it showed against Arkansas, there will have to be plenty of bombing away. This isn’t the Trojan secondary of the past and it can be beaten, it’s last in the league allowing 271 yards per game. Call this a puncher’s chance game for the Owls.
Why Troy might win: The lack of a Florida Atlantic pass rush will prove to be costly again. The Owls don’t get into the backfield, and while the pass defense hasn’t suffered, the run defense has. Troy would prefer to get Levi Brown and the passing game going, but when it has to, it can mix it up and run a little bit. If Brown gets time, look out. He’ll be a lock to throw for over 300 yards, but the ground game should be able to chip in as well.
Who to watch: Troy is way, way overdue to get more production out of the rushing attack. DuJuan Harris, the team’s leading rusher, went from being a 1,000-yard back to an afterthought with just eight carries in the last two games. However he has eight scores on the year and has been used as a receiver. True freshman Shawn Southward is getting more and more work, running 19 times for 139 yards and four scores against Western Kentucky, and he should shine on the 15-or-so carries he’ll get to offset Brown’s bombing.
What will happen: After coming up with a lackluster effort, for them, in a 40-20 win over WKU and with last week’s 56-20 loss to Arkansas, Troy will roar back with a huge game in the home finale to win the Sun Belt title.
CFN Prediction: Troy 44 … Florida Atlantic 20 ... Line: Troy -16.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Florida International (3-7) at Florida (10-0) , 12:30 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: Florida gets to measure itself against Alabama. The Tide won the season opener over the Golden Panthers 40-14, and while the Gators won’t have any problems getting the win, now it’s all about flexing some muscles. For being the No. 1 team in the nation, Florida has looked awfully un-No. 1 like with sluggish wins over Vanderbilt and Georgia over the last two weeks. There haven’t been any real threats outside of the close call over Arkansas, and it’s almost as if the team is waiting for the lights to go on before it turns its game up a few notches. At least that’s the hope in Gainesville. If Florida doesn’t win this game against FIU by more than four touchdowns, then it really might be time to get worried. The Golden Panthers aren’t totally miserable, and they’ve been competitive throughout the year despite losing seven games giving Rutgers a push and fighting with Troy in a 42-33 win, but this game will be nothing more than a live scrimmage. FIU gets its rivalry date with Florida Atlantic in the early part of December, while Florida faces Florida State next week before dealing with Alabama for the SEC title.
Why FIU might win: Florida doesn’t score. FIU’s aggressive defense takes plenty of chances and isn’t bad at making thing happen behind the line; there will be a few shots on Tim Tebow. The Golden Panthers would welcome the typical Gator dive play to take the pressure off a secondary that can’t stop anyone, and Florida isn’t going to take any crazy chances. Florida isn’t going to be interested in making a statement, because it doesn’t have to. It’ll be going through the motions and will sleepwalk through the game hoping no one gets hurt, and every minute that FIU can stay alive will be a minute that the Gators have to try to turn the intensity back up.
Why Florida might win: FIU couldn’t handle Troy’s attack in a 42-33 loss. Florida blasted the Trojans 56-6 in September. Considering head coach Mario Cristobal has a defensive background, he’s not getting much from his D this year ranking 118th in the nation in yards allowed. The offense that’s averaging just 323 yards per game doesn’t have any prayer of keeping up, even though QB Paul McCall and the passing game haven’t been bad.
Who to watch: Urban Meyer has received his fair share of criticism this year for a variety of issues, and none of it would be louder and more angry than if he plays Tim Tebow for more than a few series. Not only do the Gators need Tebow to be healthy, but they need him to be razor sharp for the last two games, which means more production will come from the backs, and QB John Brantley needs to be in sooner than later. There haven’t been enough ugly blowouts to get the talented sophomore too much work, but he has been fantastic when given the chance, completing 25-of-33 passes on the year for 251 yards and four scores. In a game like this, he should be playing from the start, but he’ll likely be the main man in the second half.
What will happen: Florida will call its shot. It’ll take a big early lead, Tebow will get out early, and the defense will do the rest.
CFN Prediction: Florida 45 … FIU 7 ... Line: Florida -43.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 1.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Army (4-6) at North Texas (2-8) , 4:00 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: Can Army get to a bowl game? The Knights haven’t been fantastic in Rich Ellerson’s first season, but they were able to get by VMI last week to get within range needing to beat a bad North Texas team and pull off a win against Navy to get a 13th game. The offense isn’t quite working and the defense hasn’t been great against good offenses, but it’s in a position to create a bigger buzz for the always classic rivalry with three weeks of lag time. North Texas has to win now after collapsing in a loss to FIU last week and with losses in eight of the last nine games. The offense has been fun, but the defense hasn’t even been close allowing 31 points or more in every game since the season-opening win over Ball State. With Arkansas State up to finish up the Sun Belt slate, there’s still time to do something positive with the season.
Why Army might win: North Texas can’t play defense … at all. Army isn’t going to throw the ball, it’s last in the nation in passing, but it should be able to run amok on a defensive front that hasn’t been close against the run all season long. Anyone with a mobile quarterback can give the Mean Green fits, and Army has just enough speed and rushing ability in the backfield to crank out 300 yards and control the ball for long, drawn-out stretches.
Why North Texas might win: Army doesn’t score. North Texas might not have a defense, but it’s better than VMI’s D and it’s not all that much worse than Tulane’s or Ball State’s, and Army couldn’t score against any of those teams, either. The Knights have gone over 20 points in just three games this year, winning all three of them, and while they should be able to crank out at least that many on the porous Mean Green D, there will be problems against an offense that can get hot and stay hot if everything is working right.
Who to watch: Call this the growing pain season with Trent Steelman running in place a bit too much now, but with the potential to blow up and be special over the next few seasons. The Army freshman quarterback threw extremely well against VMI, completing 11-of-14 passes for 174 yards and a touchdown, but his real talent is running with two 90+ yard days and a 102-yard effort against Air Force. He’s a dangerous playmaker who should benefit from the offseason and a little more time and seasoning, but at this point in the season, he’s a veteran who needs to be doing more to make the option go.
What will happen: Army’s offense will work better than it has all season long, and while North Texas will put up plenty of yards, too many drives will stall and stop with turnovers.
CFN Prediction: Army 31 … North Texas 27 ... Line: North Texas -1.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 1.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Arkansas State (2-7) at Middle Tennessee (7-3) , 4:30 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: Middle Tennessee has been excellent winning four straight to stay alive in the Sun Belt title hunt, but Troy hasn’t provided any help by continuing to win. The Blue Raiders can earn the No. 2 spot in the league by beating Arkansas State in the team’s home finale and beat ULM next week. Dwight Dasher is in the hunt for the Sun Belt Player of the Year honor by carrying the MTSU offense week after week, but unfortunately, this isn’t going to be the quarterback battle expected. With ASU struggling in a 2-7 season, Corey Leonard was benched. The Red Wolves are looking for something positive after losing three straight and with the only win over an FBS team coming against FIU.
Why Arkansas State might win: ASU has a big advantage over MTSU is in the punting game. Dasher, as good as he is, hasn’t always been a top passer, making most of his big plays happen with his legs. If ASU can win the field position battle, the defense should have a shot to keep the Blue Raider defense under wraps. The Red Wolves have the league’s No. 1 defense and aren’t going to allow too many long drives, meaning MTSU could have problems with a punt return game that averages just eight yards per pop and a punting game that averaged just 33 yards per kick.
Why Middle Tennessee might win: The Red Wolves don’t have the offense to keep up if Dasher gets hot, and for as good as the defense has played, it doesn’t force turnovers. On the flip side, MTSU is terrific at taking the ball away with 26 forced errors on the year. The ASU offensive line has been a mega disappointment, and it’s about to get its lunch handed to it by the strong Middle Tennessee pass rush. The Blue Raiders are third in the nation in tackles for loss and tenth in sacks, which is a problem because …
Who to watch: Ryan Van Aplin needs time. He completed 20-of-27 passes for 168 yards and a touchdown last week, and ran 15 times for 82 yards, but if Leonard isn’t playing, it’s going to take a lot more production to keep up with Dasher and the Blue Raiders. All Dasher has done is run for 792 yards and nine scores, with 178 yards and three scores two weeks ago against FIU, and while he has thrown 11 interceptions on the year, he has thrown 15 touchdown passes with seven scores in the last four games.
What will happen: Arkansas State is better than its 2-7 record, but Dasher will be the difference in yet another game as the Blue Raiders keep on rolling.
CFN Prediction: Middle Tennessee 30 … Arkansas State 20 ... Line: Middle Tennessee -11.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions
ULM (6-4) at Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5) , 7:00 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: It’s a big rivalry game in Sun Belt play, and this year, it’s more meaningful than usual for ULM. The Warhawks have won five of their last seven games and are still in the hunt for at least a piece of the Sun Belt title, needing to win this week and close out with a win over Middle Tennessee, and needing a Troy loss. On the other side, ULL can still get bowl eligible by winning one of its final two games, and it could have a major role in the Sun Belt title chase with home games against ULM and Troy. The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost three of their last four games, but a win this week would join the stunning upset over Kansas State as the highlight of the season.
Why ULM might win: Louisiana-Lafayette will have problems running the ball against the league’s best run defense, while the ULM ground attack should be able to pound away on defensive line that doesn’t get into the backfield and doesn’t stop anyone’s running game cold. Worse yet, ULL’s biggest strength, the O line is faltering a bit coming off a mediocre performance in last week’s loss at Middle Tennessee. ULM’s run defense is aggressive and isn’t afraid to take chances to get to the running backs before the plays can start, while on the other side, ULL won’t do much to get past a line that’s doing a great job of keeping Trey Revell clean.
Why Louisiana-Lafayette might win: ULM 21, WKU 18. Western Kentucky is the nation’s worst team and has been a punching bag for everyone, but ULM’s offense wasn’t able to get going and it wasn’t nearly the blowout it was supposed to be. The Warhawks don’t score points in bunches and this isn’t going to be a blowout. If the Ragin’ Cajun can get some early scores and some positive production, ULM will have to open things up a bit. That’s not what it wants to do. The ULM secondary can be thrown on, but that means …
Who to watch: Chris Masson has to get hot. The sophomore isn’t the great runner that past ULL quarterbacks have been, but he’s a stronger passer with 200 yards or more in each of the last five games. However, he’s not throwing for touchdowns, with just nine on the year, and he’s not getting enough big plays for all his attempts. He’s getting time to throw, and he needs to produce when given the chance this week.
What will happen: ULM’s defense will come up with another strong game, but the offense won’t have enough spark to make this a blowout.
CFN Prediction: ULM 21 … Louisiana-Lafayette 17 ... Line: ULM -2.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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