DG on PX - Picking the Pac

The winner of Saturday's game between Oregon and Arizona controls its own destiny in the Pac-10. Can the Wildcats move one step closer to their first-ever Rose Bowl berth?

Year to date - 49-16 straight up, 31-32 against the spread

Arizona State at UCLA, 1:00 p.m.
My Pick – UCLA 27, Arizona State 20
Why I’m Thinking the Way I’m Thinking – The Sun Devils start their third quarterback of the season in dynamic sophomore Samson Szakacsy, who has the athleticism to bring a new dimension to the shotgun-based offense. Szakacsy will make some plays, but the lack of a consistent running game eventually allows UCLA’s defense to take over. Add in efficient, effective play from Bruins QB Kevin Prince and Rick Neuheisel’s team secures bowl eligibility.
If I’m Wrong, I Will – Figure out how to pronounce Szakacsy.

Oregon State at Washington State, 2:00 p.m.
My Pick – Oregon State 41, Washington State 7
Why I’m Thinking the Way I’m Thinking – It’s virtually a bye week for the Beavers before they get a chance to avenge last year’s Civil War loss that kept them from the Rose Bowl.
If I’m Wrong, I Will – Stock up on canned goods and bottled water.

Cal at Stanford, 4:30 p.m.
My Pick – Stanford 30, Cal 27
Why I’m Thinking the Way I’m Thinking – If only Jahvid Best was cleared to play, I’d pick the Bears to pull the upset. Stanford’s defense has been vulnerable against the run, with LaMichael James and Joe McKnight breaking some big plays the last two weeks. Cal must pressure QB Andrew Luck into the kind of mistakes he avoided in leading those upsets of Oregon and USC. Cardinal running back Toby Gerhart will continue his bruising march to the Heisman ceremony and carry Stanford to no worse than a second place finish in the Pac-10.
If I’m Wrong, I Will – Cite the “USC letdown” effect as the reason for Stanford’s loss.

Oregon at Arizona, 5:00 p.m.
My Pick – Oregon 41, Arizona 28
Why I’m Thinking the Way I’m Thinking – The Ducks have struggled with power running teams like Stanford and Boise State, but Arizona’s banged up group of running backs won’t be able to exploit that flaw.
If I’m Wrong, I Will – Remind everyone I said there was one shoe left to drop in the Pac-10 race.