2009 WAC Fearless Predictions
Week 12 ... Nov. 21 Games
Boise State |
Fresno State |
Hawaii
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Idaho
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Louisiana Tech
Nevada |
New Mexico St |
San Jose
State |
Utah State
WAC Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
Boise State (10-0) at Utah State (3-7), 9:30 EST, Friday, November 21, ESPN2
Why to watch: Call this a trial run for the big show. Boise State is being considered more and more for one of the at-large BCS spots, with no one else stepping up and looking like a sure-thing option outside of the Alabama/Florida loser and Iowa, but style points count. The Broncos did what they’re supposed to against a team like Idaho, winning 63-25, and in the last four games they scored 207 points and are getting better and better as the season is going on. Next on the docket is a Utah State team that runs well and gets plenty of production out of QB Diondre Borel, and this will be a training-wheels game before facing the mighty Nevada ground attack. The Aggies rolled for 381 rushing yards last week in a 24-9 win over San Jose State, and while the 3-7 record might not look great, the team is far, far better than it has been in previous seasons. USU closes out the year at Idaho next week.
Why Boise State might win: The Utah State defensive front, especially without Paul Igboeli, a star linebacker with an ankle problem, has been incredibly soft against the run and doesn’t do too much to get into the backfield. If you can’t get to QB Kellen Moore and if you can’t stop Boise State’s ground game before it gets started, there will be problems. The Broncos lead the nation in sacks allowed, giving up just five this year, and they’re not going to be under any pressure.
Why Utah State might win: The running game is a wild card. With gamebreakers like Borel and RB Robert Turbin, Utah State can hit the home run from anywhere on the field. Flash back to mid-September when Fresno State’s Ryan Mathews went ballistic tearing off 234 yards and three long scoring dashes. Boise State hasn’t faced a good back or a decent running game since. The defensive front really is good, but if Borel and Turbin can get a few slivers of daylight, they could make this a tougher game than everyone expects. Utah State can score, and it might be able to keep up in a shootout.
Who to watch: Kellen Moore might be the best quarterback in America right now. The sophomore leads the nation in passing efficiency and has been on fire over the last six games with 22 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. He was on fire against Louisiana Tech throwing for 354 yards, and he had no problems against Idaho connecting on 22-of-32 passes for 299 yards and five scores. With no pass rush to worry about, he’ll have another huge day.
What will happen: Boise State will win, but it has struggled a bit to put away teams on the road in nationally televised games. Louisiana Tech and Tulsa were closer than they should’ve been, and this one will be tight for a while with Turbin and Borel coming up with a few interesting plays early to make Nevada start drooling.
CFN Prediction: Boise State 41 … Utah State 20 ... Line: Boise State -24
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Louisiana Tech (3-7) at Fresno State (6-4), 5:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Could last weekend have gone any worse for Pat Hill and Fresno State? Not only did the Bulldogs get smoked by Nevada, 52-14, but they also lost nation’s-leading rusher Ryan Mathews for at least a game with a concussion. The program better regroup in a hurry, or else it runs the risk of skidding into the postseason. Louisiana Tech’s postseason, on the other hand, will not include another game. That became official after the Bulldogs’ hard-fought 24-16 loss to LSU last Saturday. They’ve been hard-luck losers throughout the year, also falling to Boise State by 10, Idaho by one, and Utah State by two in the last month alone.
Why Louisiana Tech might win: By WAC standards, the Bulldogs have a pretty feisty defense, ranking second overall in the league and holding LSU to just 246 yards a week ago. While tackles D’Anthony Smith and Mason Hitt set the tone up front, LB Adrien Cole and S Tank Calais protect the last lines of defense. Behind the running of Daniel Porter, the Louisiana Tech offense has perked up lately, scoring 34 points in three of the last five games. It could present problems to a Fresno State defense allowing more than six yards a carry this season.
Why Fresno State might win: The Bulldogs are one of the few schools that can lose a player of Mathews’ caliber and still be dangerous on the ground. Powered by a physical, veteran offensive line, Lonyae Miller, Anthony Harding, and Robbie Rouse are all capable of picking up the slack. Miller and Harding have had 100-yard games in the past, and Rouse has shown flashes of excellence in his rookie season. A minimal drop-off in the running game means that QB Ryan Colburn will continue to be effective on play-action, hooking up downfield with receivers Seyi Ajirotutu and Jamel Hamler.
Who to watch: Fresno State DE Chris Carter has been largely held in check this season, generating 10.5 tackles for loss and just four sacks all year. It’s not all his fault. One of the league’s most explosive edge rushers, he’s been hamstrung by a lack of support on the other side, which allows the opposition to double him. However, Carter is still the type of player, who can take a game over when permitted to impact the integrity of the pocket.
What will happen: Fresno State will play with an attitude after getting embarrassed by Nevada a week ago. Yeah, Mathews will be missed, but Miller will seize the opportunity to be a feature back for a change, rushing for 100 yards for the sixth time in his career and scoring a couple of touchdowns in the victory.
CFN Prediction: Fresno State 31 … Louisiana Tech 23 ... Line: Fresno State -11.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Hawaii (4-6) at San Jose State (1-8), 8:00 EST, ESPN360, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Back-to-back wins have Hawaii feeling a degree of confidence and hope for the first time all season. After losing six straight, the Warriors have regrouped by defeating Utah State and New Mexico State to remain on the periphery of bowl contention. There’s no margin for error, however, in the final three games with San Jose State, Navy, and Wisconsin. The Spartans have suffered through a difficult campaign, failing to defeat an FBS opponent in eight tries and rarely even being competitive. This will be the beginning of the end for head coach Dick Tomey, who announced on Monday that he was retiring after five seasons with the program
Why Hawaii might win: The WAC’s worst defense will help ensure that the Warriors remain the WAC’s most prolific passing team. Even after starting QB Greg Alexander suffered a season-ending injury, the offense didn’t skip a beat, cranking out 351 yards a game. Bryant Moniz has settled in nicely into the role of heir apparent, throwing for more than 300 yards on three different occasions. Top receivers Greg Salas, Jon Medeiros, and Jovonte Taylor will be able to create mismatches with a beatable San Jose State secondary.
Why San Jose State might win: Although the Spartan offense has been horrendous all season, a visit from Hawaii could provide a temporary tonic. The Warriors can’t stop the run, don’t generate much pressure, and have allowed 30 points in six of the last eight games. It’ll be a wake-up call for QB Jordan La Secla and RB Lamon Muldrow, two of the catalysts of the unit. Muldrow has had moments, when his blockers do their job, and La Secla has access to a decent set of targets, including Kevin Jurovich and Josh Harrison.
Who to watch: Hawaii has been receiving a rare degree of offensive balance recently, thanks to the play of veteran Leon Wright-Jackson. More of a receiver out of the backfield in the past, he’s actually averaged nine yards on his last 27 carries and scored five touchdowns. Whatever threat Wright-Jackson presents makes life much easier for Moniz and the Warrior receivers.
What will happen: Even if the Hawaii offense doesn’t erupt on Saturday night, it’ll still score enough points to avoid the upset. The feeble San Jose State attack will make sure of it. The Spartans haven’t reached double-digits in a month, a problem against a Warrior team that’s started to get comfortable with Moniz at the controls.
CFN Prediction: Hawaii 28 … San Jose State 16 ... Line: ???
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Nevada (7-3) at New Mexico State (3-7),10:30 EST, ESPNU, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Although there are better teams in America, no one is hotter than Nevada, winners of seven straight games. More than just beating opponents, the Wolf Pack is dismantling all comers with a high-octane offense that’s gone for more than 60 points three times during the winning streak. It has one more tune-up before next Friday’s huge showdown with unbeaten Boise State for the WAC championship. Since peaking on Oct. 10 with an upset of Utah State, New Mexico State has drifted back to reality with four lopsided losses in succession. It’ll be a long and painful road for DeWayne Walker in Las Cruces, but those three victories and full season with a new staff should pay a few more dividends for the program in 2010.
Why Nevada might win: There’s absolutely no way New Mexico State can keep up with a Nevada team that leads the country in rushing and is scoring points in droves. The Pack has put up 215 points in the last four games. The Aggies? 16 and not a single offensive touchdown. The ground game has become an off-the-rails locomotive, gashing opponents with QB Colin Kaepernick and backs Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott. By the end of the season, all three will have gone for more than 1,000 yards, providing a level of depth and talent that will power right through the New Mexico State defense.
Why New Mexico State might win: Barring a tornado passing through Las Cruces, the only way the Aggies can slow down the Wolf Pack is with a ball-control offense. Now, Nevada is vulnerable through the air, but New Mexico State won’t have the parts in the passing game to capitalize. Instead, it’ll dish out a heavy dose of Seth Smith and Tonny Glynn, the team’s top two backs. Smith is the workhorse, but he’s been bothered by a bum shoulder the past couple of weeks. Glynn assumed a larger role a week ago, responding with 74 yards on just 11 carries.
Who to watch: When Jeff Fleming does drop back to throw, he better keep his head on a swivel for Nevada’s disruptive ends, Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped. Two of the fastest linemen in the WAC, they’ve combined for 29.5 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks. Underpublicized on this program, Moch and Basped will be more valuable as run-stuffers this week than as straight ahead pass rushers.
What will happen: Might Nevada be looking ahead to the day after Thanksgiving? Yup. Will it matter in the outcome? Nope. The Wolf Pack offense is putting on a clinic these days on how to run the Pistol offense, and New Mexico State isn’t about to get in the way. The Pack will roll to an easy victory, getting the starters to the sidelines as quickly as possible.
CFN Prediction: Nevada 51 … New Mexico State 10... Line: Nevada -22
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 1.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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