2009 Ind & ND Fearless Predictions - Week 12

Previews and Predictions for the Week 12 Independent Games

2009 Ind. Fearless Predictions

Week 12 ... Nov. 21 Games

Army | Navy | Notre Dame 

Independent Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week  


Connecticut (4-5) at Notre Dame (6-4),2:30 EST, NBC, Saturday, November 21

Why to watch: If you don’t like the match up on the field in South Bend, surely you’ll find the off-field circus intriguing. Back-to-back high-profile losses to Navy and Pittsburgh have Notre Dame head man Charlie Weis clinging for his coaching life and fending off incessant questions about his future. Although the situation can’t get much worse, a third straight defeat would certainly ratchet up the chatter to an all-time high. Connecticut comes out of its bye week with a three-game losing streak and in need of two wins in the final three games to qualify for the postseason. One of the nation’s least fortunate teams of 2009, the Huskies have lost all five games by four points or less. It’ll be a particularly compelling afternoon for Zach Frazer, who transferred out of Notre Dame after falling on the depth chart behind three quarterbacks, including current Irish starter Jimmy Clausen.
Why Connecticut might win: The Notre Dame defense is beatable on the ground, which is the Huskies’ preferred method of travel. Well-rested after a couple of weeks off, Connecticut will feed the Irish a steady diet of Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon, one of the nation’s best backfield duos. Each is averaging more than 80 yards a game on the ground, which means fresh legs for all 60 minutes. Frazer has the major league arm to give the offense balance, turn WR Marcus Easley into a downfield playmaker, and keep the defense from stacking the box on the backs.
Why Notre Dame might win: This has not been a typical Connecticut pass defense, in part because of the tragic death of starting CB Jasper Howard. The Huskies are 96th nationally in pass efficiency defense, allowing at least 250 yards through the air in the last four games. That won’t cut it versus Clausen, who has a one-two punch at wide receiver that’ll cause fits for the defensive backfield. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd are pro-caliber talents, with the ability to take games over with their big-play potential. If someone on that suspect Irish line can keep DE Lindsey Witten from collapsing the pocket, Clausen will have the time he needs to pick apart the secondary.
Who to watch: Irish true freshman LB Manti Te’o has been as good as advertised for the defense, stepping into the lineup in early October and playing like a veteran. Playing with great range and tenacity, the game has gradually started to slow down for the can’t-miss recruit from Hawaii. With Connecticut determined to establish the run on Saturday, he’ll get plenty of chances to make tackles and keep Todman and Dixon from getting past the second line of defense.
What will happen: Notre Dame is desperate and back home, a combination that’ll help avert a nasty three-game losing streak. It won’t be easy, however. Facing Connecticut rarely is. The Huskies will battle for all four quarters, like they always do, before succumbing to the Irish passing game and dropping yet another heartbreaker in the waning moments.
CFN Prediction: Notre Dame 27 … Connecticut 23 ... Line: Notre Dame -6
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 4
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Army (4-6) at North Texas (2-8), 4:00 EST, Saturday, November 21

Why to watch: Can Army get to a bowl game? The Knights haven’t been fantastic in Rich Ellerson’s first season, but they were able to get by VMI last week to get within range needing to beat a bad North Texas team and pull off a win against Navy to get a 13th game. The offense isn’t quite working and the defense hasn’t been great against good offenses, but it’s in a position to create a bigger buzz for the always classic rivalry with three weeks of lag time. North Texas has to win now after collapsing in a loss to FIU last week and with losses in eight of the last nine games. The offense has been fun, but the defense hasn’t even been close allowing 31 points or more in every game since the season-opening win over Ball State. With Arkansas State up to finish up the Sun Belt slate, there’s still time to do something positive with the season.
Why Army might win: North Texas can’t play defense … at all. Army isn’t going to throw the ball, it’s last in the nation in passing, but it should be able to run amok on a defensive front that hasn’t been close against the run all season long. Anyone with a mobile quarterback can give the Mean Green fits, and Army has just enough speed and rushing ability in the backfield to crank out 300 yards and control the ball for long, drawn-out stretches.
Why North Texas might win: Army doesn’t score. North Texas might not have a defense, but it’s better than VMI’s D and it’s not all that much worse than Tulane’s or Ball State’s, and Army couldn’t score against any of those teams, either. The Knights have gone over 20 points in just three games this year, winning all three of them, and while they should be able to crank out at least that many on the porous Mean Green D, there will be problems against an offense that can get hot and stay hot if everything is working right.
Who to watch: Call this the growing pain season with Trent Steelman running in place a bit too much now, but with the potential to blow up and be special over the next few seasons. The Army freshman quarterback threw extremely well against VMI, completing 11-of-14 passes for 174 yards and a touchdown, but his real talent is running with two 90+ yard days and a 102-yard effort against Air Force. He’s a dangerous playmaker who should benefit from the offseason and a little more time and seasoning, but at this point in the season, he’s a veteran who needs to be doing more to make the option go.
What will happen: Army’s offense will work better than it has all season long, and while North Texas will put up plenty of yards, too many drives will stall and stop with turnovers.
CFN Prediction: Army 31 … North Texas 27 ... Line: North Texas -1.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 1.5
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