2009 M-West Fearless Predictions
Week 12 ... Nov. 21 Games
Air Force |
BYU
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Colorado State
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New Mexico
San
Diego State |
TCU
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UNLV
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Utah
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Wyoming
Mountain West Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
Air Force (7-4) at BYU (8-2), 3:30 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: TCU is going to win the Mountain West title unless it inexplicably drops two games to Wyoming and New Mexico teams it should beat by a combined score of 100-10, and there’s plenty of jockeying for position for the next three spots. BYU, Utah, and Air Force are all going to finish ahead of the rest of the pack, and while the BYU-Utah showdown next week might turn out to be for the No. 2 spot in the bowl pecking order when all is said and done, Air Force can break through the ceiling and work its way into the top three with a win. The Falcons have been on a roll, taking care of the dregs like Colorado State and UNLV without a problem, and now they’re on a three game winning streak with a chance to make a huge statement in their regular season finale. They hold the distinction of playing TCU harder than anyone, losing 20-17, and two of their losses came in overtime (Navy and Utah). The other loss was to Minnesota by seven, meaning all four losses came by seven points or fewer and by a total of 20 points. On the flip side, BYU isn’t used to close game. It beat Oklahoma by one, and stunningly struggled in a 24-19 win over New Mexico, but the rest of the games have been blowouts one way or another. The Cougars might be looking ahead to Utah a little bit, but it needs to be fully focused against the Falcons or there will be problems.
Why Air Force might win: The secondary continues to be terrific. This is no fluke; Air Force can actually play. Granted, it helps the stats to play Navy and Army, but only San Diego State and Minnesota have thrown for more than 200 yards. BYU will get its yards through the air, this is the best passing attack the Falcons have faced, but it’s not going to go ballistic. While BYU is fantastic against the run, it doesn’t quite have the right make up or style to stop what Air Force likes to do. There isn’t going to be enough pressure into the backfield to stop the Falcon ground game before it gets started, and there will be plenty of time for QB Tim Jefferson to make his decisions.
Why BYU might win: No one has tried to power the ball on the Falcons. Navy tried, using fullback Vince Murray, Army didn’t, and Utah used its speedy back, Eddie Wide, to run for 122 yards and two touchdowns helped by its big and tough offensive line. BYU might not rip off 250 yards on the ground, but Harvey Unga should be used a bit more than he has been over the last few games and BYU might try to pound on the Air Force defensive front. It worked a bit for Utah, and the more beating the Cougar O line can provide, the more things will open up for Max Hall and the passing game.
Who to watch: Unga leads the Mountain West with 833 rushing yards with nine touchdowns, but he only has one 100-yard day in the last four, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been effective. The junior hasn’t scored in his last three games, but the yards are coming and he’s able to tear off big runs in chunks. He’ll be the featured player for the offense early on. For Air Force, fullback Jared Tew has to be established early on to see if the BYU defense can be softened up the middle. The junior has been more and more effective as the season has gone on, running for 102 yards against Army, and he needs to run for at least 75 yards.
What will happen: Air Force will be plucky and will give BYU fits with its offense, but Max Hall and the passing game will get out to too big a lead for the Falcons to be able to push all the way back.
CFN Prediction: BYU 27 … Air Force 20 ... Line: BYU -10
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 4
-Free Expert Football Predictions
TCU (10-0) at Wyoming (5-5), 2:00 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: Can Wyoming ruin all the fun? The Cowboys don’t have an offense, the defense has been spotty, and there have been some ugly blowouts along the way including a three-game losing stretch with two shutout loses and a 22-10 loss to Utah. But the season was possibly saved, and at least turned around, with a phenomenal fourth quarter comeback to stun San Diego State. Now, the Cowboys have to either beat TCU or Colorado State to get to a bowl game. Beating the Horned Frogs in the home finale would be more fun. TCU will be in the BCS with two more wins (with a layup against New Mexico to close), and with two more blowouts, it can make a claim to be in the mix for the BCS Championship. The team is playing better and better as the season is going on, hanging 55 points in each of the last two weeks against San Diego State and Utah, and it’s going to take something special for the Cowboys to pull off the shocker.
Why TCU might win: Wyoming’s offense doesn’t work. 103rd in the nation in total offense and 110th in scoring, the Cowboys hung 30 points against San Diego State, UNLV, and Florida Atlantic, and scored 29 against Weber State and 37 against New Mexico. None of those five teams will be beating down the door of the BCS, and none of them will likely go bowling. Against the other five teams on the schedule, UW has scored a grand total of 20 points. Colorado, Air Force, and BYU shut out UW, Texas didn’t allow an offensive touchdown, and Utah only gave up ten points. TCU’s defense is swarming and terrific against the run while it’s sixth in the nation against the pass. If Wyoming gets 200 yards of offense, consider it a success.
Why Wyoming might win: Could TCU be on a letdown? Everything was focused towards Utah and all the focus is on trying to put up big numbers to be in the BCS Championship discussion. There could be a big problem getting the Horned Frogs to play at a high level, and strange things have happened over the years in Laramie. UW has been decent at not turning the ball over and isn’t likely to give away anything cheap, but it has to be at least +3 in turnover margin to make this remotely close.
Who to watch: TCU has been tremendously consistent in its brilliance over the last few months, and no one has been more rock solid than senior RB Joseph Turner, who might not be the team’s most dynamic player, but he has been effective and is overdue for a huge game. He has ceded some of the glory duties to other backs, but over the last three games he has rushed for 64, 61, and 62 yards, on the way to a team-leading 622 yards with nine scores. He only has two 100-yard rushing days in his career, but he might have two in his final two regular season games.
What will happen: Wyoming will come up with a few early stops to get everyone excited, and then TCU will show why it’s going to the BCS.
CFN Prediction: TCU 45 … Wyoming 10 ... Line: TCU -31.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
San Diego State (4-6) at Utah (8-2), 4:00 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: The two teams are coming off of tremendously disappointing losses, but they came in completely opposite ways. Utah never had a chance against a fully-focused and air-tight TCU team that rocked at home on national TV on the way to a 55-28 win. The Utes still have a big game at Utah next week, and can finish second in the conference with two more wins, but they have to get up off the mat after the disappointment in Fort Worth. On the other side is San Diego State, who scratched and clawed its way to get within bowl range, and while the only four wins came against the truly awful, there was still a shot to get a 13th game with a win over Wyoming and a win in the final two games. Up 27-6 in the fourth quarter, the Aztecs collapsed allowing 24 points in the fourth quarter. Now, they have to win their final two games to get to a bowl.
Why San Diego State might win: No one in the Mountain West throws effectively except BYU and TCU, and the Horned Frogs were effective last week while the Cougars come up next. San Diego State doesn’t have a running game, the defense is spotty, and the turnover margin is a problem, but the team can throw. With a quarterback like Ryan Lindley, and a passing attack that averages 262 yards per game, the Aztecs can bomb their way into the game to keep it close. Utah might struggle to get into the backfield; SDSU has been terrific pass protection.
Why Utah might win: Utah could keep the SDSU offense on the sidelines with a strong ground game. SDSU has been crushed over the last two weeks giving up 312 rushing yards and five scores to TCU, and had problems with Wyoming running quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels and the Cowboy ground game, allowing 200 yards and two scores. Utah’s offensive line should be able to dominate the SDSU defensive front, paving the way for an almost-certain 100-yard day from Eddie Wide.
Who to watch: Call this a matchup of top Mountain West quarterbacks for the next few years. Utah freshman Jordan Wynn held up extremely well against TCU last week, and the constant pressure from star DE Jerry Hughes, completing half of his passes for 219 yards and a touchdown with an interception. After last week, the SDSU defense will look like it’s running in mud. For the Aztecs, sophomore Ryan Lindley has grown into the role this year and will be a playmaker to build around for the next two seasons. He has only thrown one touchdown pass over the last two games, after throwing 20 in the previous eight, and he needs to bomb away for 300 yards and keep the mistakes to a minimum to give the Aztecs a shot.
What will happen: San Diego State won’t be bad, but Utah will methodically pound its way to a win. And then all the focus will be on BYU.
CFN Prediction: Utah 30 … San Diego State 13 ... Line: Utah -17.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Colorado State (3-7) at New Mexico (0-10), 6:00 EST, The Mountain, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: Someone is going to get a much-needed boost in confidence in Albuquerque by Saturday evening. It’s about time, too. You’ve got to travel all the way back to Sept. 19 to find a victory for either Colorado State or New Mexico, the only Mountain West programs without a conference win in 2009. The Rams actually got off to a terrific start, opening 3-0, including wins over rival Colorado and Nevada, but have lost seven in-a-row since and got abused two weeks ago by UNLV. By every possible measurement, it’s been a trying debut for Mike Locksley at New Mexico. The Lobos, however, showed a lot of heart in last weekend’s 24-19 loss to BYU, and with a trip to TCU up next, realize this is their final chance this season to break from the ranks of the winless.
Why Colorado State might win: Mired in an up-and-down final year, Ram QB Grant Stucker sure would love to finish his college career on a positive note. The New Mexico pass defense is capable of helping the cause. The Lobos have been shredded for 24 touchdown passes and a 65% completion percentage, while picking off just six balls. Stucker, with help from top receivers Dion Morton and Rashaun Greer, will capitalize by having his best day since throwing four touchdowns in a loss to Idaho almost two months ago. Junior backs Leonard Mason and John Mosure will combine for 125 yards, making sure the defense doesn’t completely ignore the ground game.
Why New Mexico might win: Yeah, the Lobo D has been bad, but lately, Colorado State has been worse. During the seven-game skid, the Rams have yielded 36 points a game, having issues with the run and the pass. This will be New Mexico’s best chance in weeks to flex its muscles on offense. It’ll counter with Donovan Porterie through the air and true freshman Kasey Carrier on the ground. Porterie was sharp versus BYU, spreading the ball around to eight different receivers, and Carrier is adapting to an expanded role, as his first season winds down. There’ll be little pocket pressure from a Ram defense that’s delivered just four sacks in the last five games.
Who to watch: Wherever the ball is when Colorado State is on offense, New Mexico LB Carmen Messina won’t be far away. He rarely is. The sophomore leads the nation with 134 tackles, sifting through the trash to pile up the stops. After playing sparingly in his first year, he’s laid the groundwork to be the leader of the Lobo defense for the next two seasons.
What will happen: At this time of year, want-to has a way of trumping talent, especially when both schools are out of bowl contention. After coming close in two of the last three weeks, New Mexico is poised to break through and hand Locksley his first career win. It’ll get a solid defensive effort, fueled by Messina and linemen Johnathan Rainey and Kendall Briscoe, giving the staff something to point to during the long offseason.
CFN Prediction: New Mexico 24 … Colorado State 20 ... Line:
Colorado State -4.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5
… Old Dogs 1) … 1
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