2009 C-USA Fearless Predictions
Week 12 ... Nov. 21 Games
East
UAB |
UCF
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East
Carolina
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Marshall
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Memphis
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Southern
Miss
West
Houston |
Rice
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SMU
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Tulane
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Tulsa
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UTEP
Conference USA Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
UAB (5-5) at East Carolina (6-4),3:30 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: Before the season began, absolutely no one had circled this meeting between UAB and East Carolina as a pivotal game in the East Division race. Yet, that’s exactly what it is. You can thank the Blazers for the little extra juice that’ll be in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Downtrodden for the past few years, the program has rallied around QB Joe Webb to win three straight and remain firmly in the mix for a division crown. All that separates UAB from the Conference USA title game is an upset here and a win over UCF next Saturday. The division-leading Pirates will be looking to end Cinderella’s story while moving a step closer to back-to-back conference championships. They’re coming off a short week, zooming past Tulsa on the road Sunday night, with the help of three defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
Why UAB might win: With all due respect to the rest of the Blazers, this continues to be a solo act in Birmingham. Webb has been otherworldly throughout his final season, carrying the offense on his back and inspiring the entire squad. Not only is he No. 12 nationally with 1,158 yards rushing, but he’s made unexpected strides as a pocket passer. Over the last four games, he’s thrown 10 touchdown passes without an interception, helping further incorporate TE Jeffery Anderson and WR Frantrell Forrest into the offense. Webb is one of those transformational figures, who’s capable of elevating the play of those around him.
Why East Carolina might win: Webb may be one of the most underrated players in the country, but you need more than one player to put a dent in this Pirate defense. Bolstered by one of the league’s best front sevens, it’ll frustrate the Blazer linemen with DE C.J. Wilson and massive tackles Linval Joseph and Jay Ross. At 6-6 and 322 pounds, Joseph has had the type of breakthrough junior season that’s started to attract the interest of pro scouts. The ECU offense is also coming off its best game of the season, a rare 517-yard outburst that featured huge days from RB Dominique Lindsay and WR Darryl Freeney.
Who to watch: Lindsay has been a key figure in the Pirates’ quest for another conference championship. He’s also been a revelation at a school that was without a feature back when the season began. After sitting out all of 2008 with a knee injury, he’s bounced back to rush for 100 yards in three of the last five games, including a career-high 172 yards in Sunday’s nationally-televised win.
What will happen: More than one player is needed to beat a defending champion on the road in November. Sure, Webb will put up numbers, but points will be harder to come by against the veteran East Carolina D. The Pirates will divert all of their resources to stopping No. 5, while getting enough from Lindsay and QB Pat Pinkney on offense to fend off the Blazers’ challenge.
CFN Prediction: East Carolina 31 … UAB 20... Line: East Carolina -10
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5 … Old Dogs 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Prediction
Memphis (2-8) at Houston (8-2),1:00 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: Houston continues to defy all logic. The same ranked program that’s beaten Oklahoma State and Texas Tech has also lost to UTEP and UCF. The latter gaffe in Orlando last weekend could prove to be particularly costly now that the Cougars trail SMU by a full game in the West Division. You want odd? Houston remains Conference USA’s lone Top 25 team, yet will need help just to play in the league title game. Memphis continues to play out the string under lame duck head coach Tommy West. Banged up both mentally and physically, the Tigers haven’t won a game in over a month, dropping four straight by an average of 19 points.
Why Memphis might win: As long as Houston continues to play some of the nation’s feeblest defense, it’s going to be vulnerable to anyone on the schedule. The Cougars have given up 125 points over the last three games and have the league’s worst run defense. The Tigers will counter with Curtis Steele, an all-star back, who’s gone for more than 100 yards in four of the last five games. If he can keep the chains moving, it’ll prevent the Houston offense from getting on the field and help QB Will Hudgens and receivers Duke Calhoun and Carlos Singleton kickstart the passing game.
Why Houston might win: Even when the Cougars do drop a game, it’s not because of the offense. The nation’s leader at 562 yards a game, Houston has been held below 30 points just once all season. With Case Keenum at the controls, the passing game is virtually unstoppable, pitching the ball around to playmaking receivers Charles Sims, Patrick Edwards, Tyron Carrier, and James Cleveland. Memphis has neither the pass rush nor the pass defense to keep this juggernaut from cruising up and down the field with few hiccups.
Who to watch: Someone on that Houston defense better keep an eye on Steele at all times, or else he’s capable of fueling a shocker at Robertson Stadium. The onus falls on the shoulders of linebackers Marcus McGraw and C.J. Cavness to seal off the running lanes for No. 26. The team’s top two tacklers, they have to keep him from getting into the secondary and pick up yards after contact.
What will happen: While Memphis will play fast and loose, Houston will have a chip on its shoulder courtesy of last week’s embarrassing defeat. The Tigers will land some early blows and keep things close for a while, but it’ll be short-lived. The Cougars, behind Keenum and the passing game, will wake up in time to zoom to a comfortable double-digit win.
CFN Prediction: Houston 40 … Memphis 21 ... Line: Houston -23.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5
… Old Dogs 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Prediction
Tulane (3-7) at UCF (6-4),2:00 EST, Saturday, November 21
Why to watch: While an earlier loss to East Carolina may have UCF boxed out of the East Division hunt, it still has high hopes for a bowl game after knocking off No. 13 Houston, 37-32. While bowl eligible at 6-4, the Knights still need to improve their chances of actually landing a big by closing out the season with two more victories over Tulane and UAB. The Green Wave officially disappeared from bowl contention with last week’s 28-20 loss to Rice, though that was already a foregone conclusion. Now ensured of a seventh consecutive losing season, the administration will have to contemplate what to do with head coach Bob Toledo in the offseason.
Why Tulane might win: You cannot run on the UCF defense. The secondary, however, is a different story. The Knights are 116th nationally in pass defense and have allowed 15 touchdown passes, despite getting all kinds of help from the pass rush. The Green Wave will capitalize, especially now that QB Ryan Griffin has almost a half-season’s worth of starts under his belt. He also access to a solid supporting cast headed by RB Andre Anderson and WR Jeremy Williams, who could both go over the 1,000-yard mark on Saturday afternoon.
Why UCF might win: Has the Knight offense finally found a spark, lighting up Houston for 37 points and almost 400 yards last weekend? Don’t expect the mealy Tulane defense to get in the way of progress. QB Brett Hodges has evolved into a pretty consistent game manager and RB Brynn Harvey is the kind of workhorse that’ll wear the Green Wave down with 25 or 30 carries. The defense is yielding just 2.48 yards a carry, which should neutralize Anderson and put more pressure on Griffin to make plays on third-and-long.
Who to watch: If not for recent bouts with Colt McCoy and Case Keenum, this UCF defense would look even better on paper. The front seven has been fantastic, creating all kinds of backfield pressure without having to necessarily blitz. The catalysts of the pass rush have been defensive ends Bruce Miller and Jarvis Geathers, who are tied atop Conference USA with 10 sacks apiece. If they’re motivated to outdo one another at the end of the season, it’ll be a long day for Griffin and those Green Wave tackles.
What will happen: UCF is playing with a sense of purpose. Tulane is playing with one foot already in the offseason. And it’ll show at Bright House Networks Stadium. The Knights will dominate defensively, forcing the Green Wave into turnovers that create a short field for Harvey to add to his team-high 10 rushing touchdowns.
CFN Prediction: UCF 35 … Tulane 16 ... Line: UCF -19.5
Must See Rating: (WWII in HD 5
… Old Dogs 1) … 1.5
-Free Expert Football Prediction