2009 BCS Analysis
Week 6 ... Nov. 22
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2009
CFN Rankings
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2009
Harris Poll
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2009 Coaches' Poll
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2009
BCS Rankings
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BCS Breakdowns
Week 1
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3
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4
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5
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The Top
25
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Expanded BCS Rankings
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Oregon
9. Pitt
10. Ohio State
11. Iowa
12. Oklahoma St
13. Penn State
14. Virginia Tech
15. LSU
16. Oregon State
17. Miami
18. Clemson
19. BYU
20. USC
21. Utah
22. California
23. Houston
24. North Carolina
25. Ole Miss |
Thanks to Florida (vs. FIU) and Alabama (Chattanooga) pushing themselves late in the year, Texas having no problems on Senior Day against a dead Kansas team, TCU getting to blast away on Wyoming, Cincinnati off, Boise State facing Utah State, and Georgia Tech off, the top teams have stayed the same for yet another week. But the fireworks should be coming soon.
With Cincinnati facing Pitt in a few weeks, and Illinois this week, Texas getting to prove itself against Texas A&M, Alabama going to Auburn, and Boise State getting to face the Nevada rushing juggernaut, there should be some movement and shuffling around soon. Overall, though, the BCS is in a holding pattern with the wild changes, at least in the national title chase, not likely to come unless there are some big upsets. It’s the same as it has been over the last several weeks; it should be the Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas for the national title, unless something strange happens. The more interesting race is for the at-large BCS slots.
At the immediate moment, the locks are Florida, Alabama, Ohio State, Texas (even if it loses the final two games to Texas A&M and Nebraska), the Georgia Tech/Clemson winner, the Pitt/Cincinnati winner, the Oregon State/Oregon winner, and either TCU or Boise State. And then the dogfight begins, especially if Clemson beats Georgia Tech and if Nebraska beats Texas.
Oklahoma State is 12th in the latest rankings, and still has a date at Oklahoma to get to 10-2 and potentially give the Big 12 two teams in the BCS. Iowa, at 11th, is close to being a lock thanks to a fan base that will invade whatever stadium it gets to travel to. And then the question becomes whether or not Cincinnati gets in if it loses to Pitt, but even at 11-1, it might be close with Boise State certain to scream and yell if it finishes in the top five (and still behind TCU). It all seems crystal clear, right?
Basically, to keep this simple, the biggest battlers for at-large spots will be Iowa, Oklahoma State (only if it beats Oklahoma), and Boise State for two
possible openings. And that’s if the favorites win out. In a pecking order, it’s Iowa, Boise State, and Oklahoma State.
Let the debate begin.
Other interesting notes from the Week Six rankings …
- The ACC became one of the bigger winners with Miami (17th) and Clemson (18th)
moving up to give the league four teams in the top 18. North
Carolina is 24th.
- The Pac 10 was easily the biggest loser this week. After having four teams in
the top 19 last week, Oregon moved up to eighth, but Stanford
dropped like a rock from 17th to 28th, USC dropping, even though
it didn't play, and Oregon State not moving up all that high,
going from 19th to 16th. So basically, the Pac 10 isn't going to
get two teams in.
- Talk about a down year for the Big 12, Nebraska is the North
representative in the title game and is only up to 26th this
week.
The Big Winners: Oregon (11th to 8th), Iowa (13th to
11th), Clemson (23rd to 18th)
The Big Losers: Stanford (17th to
28th), Wisconsin (16th to 27th), Rutgers (27th to unranked)
1. Florida Score: 0.9664
Florida is hanging around the No. 1 spot, but
Alabama crept closer this week. It doesn't matter. All the
Gators have to do is beat Florida State and beat the Tide and
it's playing for the national title. However, if the Gators gag
against the Seminoles, do they play for the BCS title game even
if they beat Bama? That would be an interesting debate, but for
now, Florida is still No. 1, even with only one computer
thinking so.
Predicted Wins: Florida State, Alabama (SEC Championship)
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 13-0
Predicted Bowl: BCS Championship
Toughest Remaining Tests: Florida State,
Alabama (SEC Championship)
2. Alabama Score:
0.9614
The Tide is creeping closer. It doesn't matter;
it all comes down to winning. If Alabama beats Auburn and
Florida, it's playing for the national title. However, there
might be a shot at getting the No. 1 spot in the BCS if the
computers keep dropping down the Gators. Last week, the
computers had Florida No. 1, but this week the Tide got the top
spot according to five of the six computers. The humans still
like the Gators and Longhorns more.
Predicted Wins: at Auburn
Predicted Losses: Florida (SEC Championship)
Predicted Final Record: 12-1
Predicted Bowl: Sugar
Toughest Remaining Tests: at Auburn
3. Texas Score: 0.9263
The computers still don't respect the Big 12.
Texas is fourth among the computers, but the humans are bigger
fans. They have Florida No. 1, and Texas No.2. That means the
computers can dog the Longhorns all they want to, and Texas is
going to play for the national title by winning the Big 12
Championship.
Predicted Wins: at Texas A&M, Nebraska (Big 12 Championship)
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 13-0
Predicted Bowl: BCS Championship
Toughest Remaining Tests: at Texas A&M
4. TCU Score: 0.8699
The Horned Frogs aren't going to get into the top two unless
Texas loses, and even then it might be a tough sell when it
comes to the national championship. Cincinnati will likely
leapfrog TCU if it beats Pitt convincingly, so there can't be
any letting up on the gas now; blowing away New Mexico is
a must. Style points will count when it comes to the humans, but
the computers aren't convinced with Cincinnati third and TCU
fifth.
Predicted Wins: New Mexico
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 12-0
Predicted Bowl: Sugar
Toughest Remaining Tests: None
5. Cincinnati Score: 0.8591
The computers are in love, ranking the Bearcats third, and the
ranking will only get better with Pitt still to deal with. Style
points will matter with Illinois coming up at home, and if UC
has any dreams of being in the national title mix, that has to
be an ugly blowout to get the humans to start changing some
votes. There's a paper-thin overall margin between Cincinnati at
the five and TCU at the four, and that can be flipped-flopped
very easily.
Predicted Wins: Illinois
Predicted Losses: at Pitt
Predicted Final Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Gator
Toughest Remaining Tests: at Pitt
6.
Boise State Score: 0.7834
Boise State needs TCU to lose to be assured of a BCS spot, but
it can fight hard for an at-large spot thanks to Nevada. At this
point, with the Wolf Pack destroying everything in its path, the
Broncos will earn a bit more national respect with a
high-profile win, but there's a ceiling. The overall score keeps
dropping a bit, but if they get into the top five, they'll
likely end up in one of the big money games. They deserve it.
Predicted Wins: Nevada, New Mexico State
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 12-0
Predicted Bowl: Fiesta
Toughest Remaining Tests: Nevada
7. Georgia Tech Score: 0.7756
The big question is whether or not Georgia Tech can get into the
BCS if it loses to Clemson. If the Yellow Jackets can blow away
Georgia and finish the regular season 11-1, it'll be hard to
keep them out if they lose to Clemson in a fight. However, if
they lose to the Dawgs, then it's beat the Tigers or, likely, go
to the Gator.
Predicted Wins: Georgia, Clemson (ACC Championship)
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 12-1
Predicted Bowl: Orange
Toughest Remaining Tests: Georgia
8. Oregon Score: 0.6724
The Ducks moved into the top ten after the tough double overtime
win over Arizona, but they have to beat Oregon State and go to
the Rose Bowl or they'll be out of the BCS. Boise State would
love to see Oregon win out, it would help the computer part of
the score.
Predicted Wins: Oregon State
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 10-2
Predicted Bowl: Rose
Toughest Remaining Tests: Oregon State
9. Pitt Score: 0.6638
The Panthers didn't play this week and stayed put at the nine.
However, they might be in the mix for an at-large spot if they
can blow away West Virginia and play Cincinnati tough in a loss.
But most likely, Pitt needs to win the final two games and earn
the Big East's automatic bid to get into the BCS.
Predicted Wins: at West Virginia , Cincinnati
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Orange
Toughest Remaining Tests: at West Virginia, Cincinnati
10. Ohio State Score: 0.6523
Ohio State blew away its archrival, Michigan, and it didn't
matter. The Buckeyes were going to the Rose Bowl no matter what,
but at 10-2, they'll look a little better going to Pasadena.
Final Record: 10-2
Predicted Bowl: Rose
In Range:
11. Iowa Score: 0.5245
12. Oklahoma State Score: 0.5134
13. Penn State Score: 0.4992
14. Virginia Tech Score: 0.4748
15. LSU Score: 0.3650
16. Oregon State Score: 0.3140
17. Miami Score: 0.2777
18. Clemson Score: 0.2631
19. BYU Score: 0.2623
20. USC Score: 0.2589
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