2009 MAC Fearless Picks - Week 13

Previews and Predictions for the Week 13 MAC Games

2009 MAC Fearless Predictions

Week 13 ... Nov. 28 Games

East | Akron | Bowling Green | Buffalo | Kent State | Miami Univ. | Ohio | Temple
West  Ball State | Central Mich | Eastern Mich | Northern Illinois | Toledo | West Michigan

MAC Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week

Temple (9-2) at Ohio (8-3), 11:00 EST, Friday, November 27, ESPNU

Why to watch: It’s the MAC East title game, and so far, the MAC game of the year. Temple has come up with an unbelievable season with no passing game, a phenomenal rushing attack, a good year defensively, and win after win after win. Nothing has come easy for the Owls over the last decade-plus, and getting to the MAC championship against Central Michigan will have to be earned on the road after Ohio stunned Northern Illinois to stay alive in the race. The Bobcats aren’t flashy, they sputtered and struggled to get by bad teams like Ball State and North Texas, and they have a MAC loss to Kent State at home, but they weren’t blown away by UConn or Tennessee, have come up big in clutch situations when needed, and answered the challenge time and again going 4-0 on the road in conference play. Both teams are good enough to win next week against the Chippewas, and while the loser will be devastated after coming this far, there will still be a bowl bid at the end of the tunnel.
Why Temple might win: Considering the passing game is so mediocre, the Owls are scoring in bunches. The offensive line has played at a high level throughout the MAC season, and while it might not be the best in the league (that’s probably the NIU offensive front), it came up with a big performance when it needed it the most in last week’s win over Kent State. The ground game has been unstoppable over the last several weeks, and while Ohio has a nice run defense, it’s not so good that it can’t be pushed around if the Owls get hot. While the Temple O line is among the MAC’s best, there’s no question that the defensive front is at the top of the heap. Ohio’s middling offense will struggle to get rolling against the Owl pass rush. The one MAC loss for the Bobcats came against Kent State because the Golden Flash pass rush camped out in the Ohio backfield. Expect the same from TU.
Why Ohio might win: The Northern Illinois offense isn’t a mirror of Temple’s, but it functions in almost the same way with a great running game, suspect passing attack, and great play from the O line. Ohio shut down the Huskie ground game allowing just 103 yards with Chad Spann held to 2.7 yards per carry and the speedy Meco Brown gaining just 16 yards on 11 carries. NIU stayed alive thanks to a big passing day from Chandler Harnish, the team’s bomber who had returned from injury. Temple doesn’t have one of those and can’t win if the running game doesn’t hit the 200-yard mark. That could be a problem because …
Who to watch: Bernard Pierce is out with a shoulder injury. CMU’s Dan LeFevour is the MAC Player of the Year, but Pierce is No. 2 after carrying the Owls with 1,308 yards and 15 touchdowns. With Pierce knocked out against Kent State after one carry, Matt Brown stepped up and was Pierce-like running for 156 yards and two scores highlighted by a 71-yard dash. Temple might operate more running-back-by-committee than normal with several players getting into the mix. Seven players carried the ball against KSU, and it should be more of the same this week.
What will happen: Ohio has found ways to get the job done all season long, but Temple’s lines are too good and the defense will pick up the slack for the Pierce-less offense.
CFN Prediction: Temple 30 … Ohio 23 ... Line: Temple -4
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 4
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Ball State (1-10) at Western Michigan (5-6), 7:00 EST, Tuesday, November 24, ESPN2

Why to watch: It’s a longshot, but Western Michigan is hoping to extend the season by another game needing to beat Ball State to get bowl eligible. The Broncos blew away Eastern Michigan to close out a rough road trip, and while the season has been a disappointment, a win over the Cardinals would mean a 6-6 record and a big rally after so many down moments. Ball State has been, arguably, the league’s biggest flop with only a two-point win over a miserable Eastern Michigan team to look back on. The offense hasn’t had any punch, the defense is struggling, and coming off a 35-3 nationally televised home loss to CMU, closing out on a positive note is a must for Stan Parrish and the program going into the offseason.
Why Ball State might win: The Western Michigan is wildly inconsistent. It has had its moments through the air, but the ground game has struggled throughout and shouldn’t go crazy against a WMU run defense that’s great at getting into the backfield. Ball State has running backs and has the potential to crank out big yards, and considering the WMU defense gives up yards in chunks, to go along with the league’s worst pass defense, the Cardinals should finally be able to get the offense rolling.
Why Western Michigan might win: Tim Hiller should go wild in what might be his final game in a long and interesting career. The WMU quarterback has been hit or miss this season, but the Cardinal secondary can get torched without a problem. The secondary gets beaten short, long, and everywhere in between. Ball State’s offense doesn’t have the consistency to get back in the battle if WMU gets up early; the passing game is a disaster.
Who to watch: One. That’s the passing yard Ball State came up with in its only win over the year, and it hasn’t come up with more than 134 yards through the air in the last five games. It’s not like the running game is picking up the slack meaning Tanner Justice has come up with a big performance in his final game. He won’t come within 150 yards of Hiller’s production, but he has to do something to push the ball down the field. There aren’t the yards after the catch coming to make the dinks and dunk plays work. WMU isn’t going to respect the deep ball at all.
What will happen: WMU will get 350 yards out of Hiller as the Broncos close out with an emphatic win and start hoping for some at-large bowl slots to open up.
CFN Prediction: Western Michigan 31 … Ball State 13 ... Line: Western Michigan -10.5
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2
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Northern Illinois (7-4) at Central Michigan (9-2), 1:00 EST, Friday, November 27

Why to watch: This was all set up to be the showdown for the MAC West title, and there was some school of thought that this was the real MAC championship game, but Northern Illinois lost last week at Ohio and now this is simply an exercise for CMU to use as a tune up. It does matter to the Huskies, who are hoping to sneak into a bowl game and might need a win to have a shot. Meanwhile, CMU has come up with a brilliant MAC season with the two losses on the year coming to Arizona and Boston College. This is the best Chippewa team yet in the recent run of greatness, and it can confirm just how good it is by closing out with a win. However, NIU wants to make a statement and show that it really might be the West’s best team by pulling off a win on the road.
Why Northern Illinois might win: While CMU has been strong against the run all season long, it hasn’t been shoved around by a physical defensive front. The stats look good because teams like Western Michigan, Akron, and Bowling Green didn’t even pretend to run the ball, and while CMU was strong against Michigan State’s line and gave up just 150 yards to Boston College, NIU’s ground game is the best the defense has faced. After struggling against Ohio, NIU is looking to make a point by pounding away to open seams for Chad Spann and Meco Brown.
Why Central Michigan might win: As good as the NIU defense has been all season long, leading the MAC allowing just 307 yards per game, it has had a few problems against efficient passers. Ohio’s Theo Scott, who isn’t exactly a precision bomber, was able to throw without too much of a problem last week while most decent passing games have been able to move the ball, even though the Huskies have been strong at getting into the backfield. Dan LeFevour isn’t going to flinch under the pressure; CMU is first in the MAC and 11th in the nation in passing efficiency.
Who to watch: While LeFevour gets all the credit and all the glory, he needs targets to work with. LeFevour is the MAC player of the year, but Antonio Brown could turn out to be the better pro prospect as a returner and a possible No. 2 NFL target with good hands and excellent production. Already a star coming into this season, and in the midst of a strong campaign, he stepped up his game a few notches over the last few weeks catching 13 passes for 129 yards and a score against Toledo and 11 passes for 170 yards and a touchdown against Ball State. While he might not earn All-America status, he’ll be close with 80 grabs for 904 yards and nine touchdowns going into this week.
What will happen: CMU doesn’t need this game, but it doesn’t want to go into the title game on a down note. It’ll be effective, efficient, and explosive as it proves that it really is the best team in the West.
CFN Prediction: Central Michigan 34 … Northern Illinois 23 ... Line: Central Michigan -10
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 3
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Toledo (5-6) at Bowling Green (6-5), 2:00 EST, Friday, November 27

Why to watch: Does the winner have any hope of a bowl bid? It’ll take something extraordinary for that to happen with Central Michigan, Temple, Ohio, and Northern Illinois the four likely candidates to get in, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be any lobbying going on. Toledo has struggled with its consistency and suffered an inexplicable loss to Miami University, but with a blowout win over Eastern Michigan it has a shot to end Tim Beckman’s first season on a high note and with a .500 record. To do it, his offense that was among the best in the nation to start the season has to get rolling again against a Bowling Green attack that has caught fire at the right time. The Falcons started out the year 1-4 with no real hope of the season going anywhere, and then can an impressive run of five wins in six games including four victories on the road. Because of the great offense, a 7-5 record might be enough to tempt a bowl.
Why Toledo might win: Toledo is one of the few teams in the MAC with the firepower to make the Falcons sweat. While there have been problems at times finding enough scoring punch to overcome a lousy defense, the attack has had some big moments rushing for 330 yards and five scores against Eastern Michigan last week and throwing for 200 yards or more in seven of its last eight games. The one game under 200 was against the Eagles. Bowling Green’s defense can be barreled over and should get gouged by the Rocket ground game, however …
Why Bowling Green might win: It’ll be stat-sheet filling time for the Bowling Green passing game. The Falcon running game isn’t needed with Tyler Sheehan and Freddie Barnes putting on a show week after week, and they should go ballistic against a Toledo defense that gives up 251 yards per game and hasn’t been able to stop the bad passing games, much less the good ones. Toledo gets a decent push into the backfield, but Sheehan is doing a better job of making quick decisions and is getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry.
Who to watch: Freddie Barnes gets to make one final push for the Biletnikoff Award. Most of the ballots are already in, and Notre Dame’s Golden Tate will likely win, but Barnes could show why he really is the nation’s best receiver. He caught ten passes or more in eight of the 11 games this season with 14 touchdowns, and he has continued to produce even with everyone focusing on stopping him. He caught ten passes for 109 yards and two scores against Miami and 12 passes for 197 yards and two touchdowns against Akron. Toledo is one of the few teams he hasn’t ripped up over the course of his great career. That might change this week.
What will happen: Toledo will run for over 250 yards, Bowling Green will throw for more than 400, and Sheehan and Barnes will connect 15 times on the way to the seventh win. It’ll be a fun shootout.
CFN Prediction: Bowling Green 38 … Toledo 31 ... Line: Bowling Green -8.5
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2.5
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Eastern Michigan (0-11) at Akron (2-9), 2:00 EST, Friday, November 27

Why to watch: Between the two teams that has been only one win against an FBS team with Akron beating Kent State a few weeks ago. Outside of that, neither team has been close. The Zips haven’t come up with much in the way of offense, and the defense hasn’t picked up the slack. EMU has gone from bad to miserable failing to come closer than ten points in nine of the 11 defeats. Everyone is getting fat on the nation’s worst run defense, while the offense hasn’t been a prize, either, ranking last in the MAC.
Why Eastern Michigan might win: Akron has one of the few offenses in the conference bad enough to be at EMU’s level. The ground game isn’t good enough to take advantage of the soft Eagle defensive front, while the miserable Akron defensive line won’t get into the backfield enough to screw up the EMU O. For all of Eastern Michigan’s faults, at least it’s able to get into the backfield on a semi-regular basis.
Why Akron might win: How bad is the EMU run defense? It’s fourth in the MAC in tackles for loss and hasn’t been too bad at generating sacks from time to time and it’s still the worst in America. Kent State and Western Michigan are the only two teams not to run for 200 yards or more against EMU, and they combined to throw seven touchdown passes. Ball State tore off 463 yards, NIU cranked out 418, and last week, Toledo ran for 330 yards and five touchdowns. Akron’s offensive line might not be any good, but it’s better than EMU’s defensive front.
Who to watch: For all the misery and all the problems Akron has had this year, there has been one big bright spot. This is a young team with decent hope for the future thanks mostly to freshman Brian Wagner. The linebacker has been a one man gang at times making 15 tackles in two of the Akron’s last three games. With 121 tackles, he leads the MAC in stops and is eighth in the nation. Everything is being funneled his way, while he has shown off the speed and athleticism to chase down plays when needed.
What will happen: Akron is awful, Eastern Michigan is worse.
CFN Prediction: Akron 34 … Eastern Michigan 20 ... Line: Akron -14.5
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 1
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Buffalo (4-7) at Kent State (5-6), 2:00 EST, Friday, November 27

Why to watch: There are the MAC elite, like Central Michigan, Temple, and Ohio, there are the MAC bottom feeder, like Eastern Michigan and Akron, and there are Kent State and Buffalo. The records might not be all that great, but these two are better than the stat sheet might indicate. UB is trying to close out a disappointing season with its second win in a row after beating up Miami on the road last week. Decimated by injuries in key spots, this has been an inconsistent season, and a hard luck one with five losses by seven points or fewer. Kent State was deep in the heart of the MAC title chase before inexplicably losing to Akron before getting streamrolled over by Temple. As disappointing as November has been, the Golden Flashes can come up with a strong finish and end up 6-6 despite suffering worse injuries than the Bulls.
Why Buffalo might win: Kent State doesn’t score. The Golden Flashes have won on timely scores and strong defense, but the D has struggled over the last few weeks and on came the losses. The magic number is 20. Kent State is 5-0 when holding teams to fewer than 20 points and 0-6 when allowing more than 20. For all of Buffalo’s problems, the offense has been able to put points on the board scoring 21 points or more in each of the last six games.
Why Kent State might win: For all of Kent State’s problems, getting into the backfield hasn’t been one of them. Even though the run defense got gouged last week against Temple and didn’t do enough against Akron, the defense is still first in the league in both sacks and tackles for loss. Considering the injuries on both offenses, field position should be at a must. Buffalo’s special teams and the return game have been awful, while Kent State is first in the MAC in punting and second in punt returns.
Who to watch: As if the Kent State offense didn’t have enough problems, now it’s on to another quarterback after losing Spencer Keith, the fill-in midway through the year. Giorgio Morgan was in the mix to start the season with good passing skills and the potential to get the air attack going, but he’s not the right fit for the attack. Only a sophomore, this is his chance to show what he can do going into next year. A big win and a great performance might end up making him the man to beat for the starting gig, or will at least put him in the discussion.
What will happen: Naaman Roosevelt might be out for the Bulls, taking away a star weapon, but the ground game will come up with a good effort to overcome a 250-yard passing day from Morgan.
CFN Prediction: Buffalo 28 … Kent State 24 ... Line: Buffalo -1.5
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 1.5
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