2009 Big 12 Fearless Predictions
Week 13 ... Nov. 28, Part 2
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Iowa St
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Kansas
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Kansas
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Missouri
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Nebraska
South
Baylor |
Oklahoma
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Oklahoma
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Texas
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Texas A&M
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Texas Tech
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2009 CFN Big 12 Expert Picks & Roundup
Big 12 Fearless Predictions
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Week 13,
Part 1
Missouri (7-4) vs. Kansas (5-6), 3:30 EST, Saturday, November 28, ABC
Why to watch: Right now, Missouri might be the best team in the North. The Tigers lost at home to Nebraska seven weeks ago, and after a rocky stretch, it has found its offensive groove. With a win, Mizzou will be the No. 2 team in the Big 12 North and could be fourth in the bowl pecking order. Right now, Kansas might be the worst team in the North. Forgetting all the off-the-field drama surrounding head coach Mark Mangino, the on-the-field issues have been worse with an ugly six game losing streak making this a must-win to get to a bowl game. The supposedly high-octane offense has gagged, the defense has struggled to come up with any clutch plays, and a season that was seemingly on its way to being special has become a disaster. But if the last few games between the Tigers and Jayhawks in the rivalry game are any indication, this might be a classic. Last year, Todd Reesing gutted out a brilliant game to lead the Jayhawks to a 40-37 win, while two years ago, Missouri got up early on an unbeaten KU and held on to go play for the Big 12 title. If nothing else, this should be a shootout with lots of big plays.
Why Missouri might win: Can the Kansas offense keep up? Even in shootout games, like the loss to Texas Tech and last week’s loss to Texas, the passing game isn’t able to keep up the pace. It produced against Duke, Iowa State, and Colorado, but against teams with a pulse, the attack has fallen flat. Why? Reesing is getting about a nanosecond to get the ball out of his hands. Missouri doesn’t have an elite pass rush, but it’s good enough to get to No. 5 on a regular basis and screw up the KU passing game. On the other side, the KU pass defense isn’t stingy enough to stop one of the hottest air attacks going.
Why Kansas might win: Reesing, Reesing, Reesing. In what might be his final game, Reesing, the incredibly underappreciated bomber, who could hit the 11,000-yard mark for his career with a big game, has gone nuts on the Tigers completing 65-of-100 passes for 724 yards and six touchdowns with four interceptions. Missouri couldn’t handle Baylor’s Nick Florence and has allowed 227 passing yards or more in six of the last seven games. Reesing will be under pressure for most of the game, but he’ll get his yards. The KU defense hasn’t been strong, especially against the pass, but it’s excellent at getting into the backfield with a solid pass rush that comes from several angles. That means …
Who to watch: … Blaine Gabbert’s decision-making will have to be sharp. The sophomore has stepped up his game in a big way with no interceptions and seven touchdown passes over the last three weeks as the coaching staff has trusted him more and more since the meltdowns against Nebraska and Oklahoma State in the middle of the year. His emergence has also helped Danario Alexander blow up, and vice versa. The hottest receiver in America, Alexander has caught 42 passes for 710 yards and seven touchdowns in the last four games. His counterpart, KU senior Kerry Meier, caught 14 passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns, including the game winner, in last year’s win. Very quietly, he has caught 92 passes for 931 yards and six scores on the year.
What will happen: The two teams will combine for close to 800 yards of passing offense, and while Missouri is the better team, Reesing’s career won’t come to a close quite yet. He’ll have one more big performance to get the Jayhawks to a bowl.
CFN Prediction: Kansas 34 … Missouri 31 ... Line: Missouri -4
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 3.5
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Texas Tech (7-4) at Baylor (4-7), 6:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: After a stunning 41-13 stomping of Oklahoma, all of a sudden, Texas Tech has made its season interesting. With a win over Baylor, it has a good chance at getting the fourth best Big 12 bowl slot and a prime post-season game. But first things first; the team has to be consistent. The blowout loss to Texas A&M is still a bit fresh, but the other three losses came in close battles to Houston, Texas, and Oklahoma State. After the win over the Sooners, now it seems like the Red Raiders are slightly better than originally thought, and they have to prove it against a Baylor team that’s looking to go out on a high note. In hindsight, the win over Missouri was a fluke. BU expectedly struggled against Texas, but it was supposed to do more at Texas A&M and didn’t show up in a 38-3 loss to ruin any dreams of going to a bowl. It’s all about learning experiences now, and while it might not seem like it, a win over Texas Tech to close things out would do wonders for the expectations for 2010 going into the offseason. If Baylor can be 5-7 with Robert Griffin out for a chunk of the season hurt, then Bear fans can get excited about the possibilities.
Why Texas Tech might win: The Baylor pass defense isn’t good enough. Worse yet, the Baylor offense isn’t even close to being good enough to keep up the pace if the Red Raiders get up early. Forget about the Missouri aberration. Take that out, and Baylor hasn’t scored over the second half of the season with just 51 points in the last six losses. Defensively, BU won’t generate enough pressure on Taylor Potts to throw off the timing of the Red Raider offense. Against mediocre defenses, the Tech offense has blown up and put up big points without a problem.
Why Baylor might win: Texas Tech will likely lose the turnover margin. No, Baylor isn’t great at forcing turnovers and it’s prone to give the ball away on its own from time to time, but Tech is always good or a few giveaways a game while the aggressive defense doesn’t do enough to take the ball away. No, Baylor doesn’t score, but Nick Florence is chucking the ball around and should hit the 200-yard mark easily. There’s the potential, the potential, to keep up in a shootout if Texas Tech turns Texas A&M-game flaky again and isn’t bringing its best performance.
Who to watch: Texas Tech has turned into Navy running the ball? Of course not, but there has been a better balance than normal thanks to an unsung year from junior Baron Batch, a quick back who ran 25 times for 136 yards and two scores in the win over Oklahoma. Always a strong receiver, getting to the 100-career catch mark after making seven grabs last week for 68 yards, his 715-rushing yard, 12-touchdown season will force Baylor to worry about more than Potts throwing the ball. Not focusing fully on the Texas Tech passing game is a problem.
What will happen: Baylor won’t be able to keep up the pace. Tech is still pushing to get better and to keep improving, and it won’t take this game lightly.
CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 44 … Baylor 16 ... Line: Baylor -22
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2
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Week 13,
Part 1
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