2009 Big 12 Fearless Predictions
Week 13 ... Nov. 28
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2009 CFN Big 12 Expert Picks & Roundup
Big 12 Fearless Predictions
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Week 13,
Part 2 (Missouri vs. Kansas, & More)
Game of the Week
Texas (11-0) at Texas A&M (6-5), 7:00 EST, Thursday, November 26, ESPN
Why to watch: Yeah, yeah, yeah, it’s easy to go with the “throw out the record book” cliché, but it really and truly might apply here. Texas A&M has been weird, but it has been fun-weird, with a offense that puts up big yards and has blown up here and there, hanging 52 against Texas Tech and scoring 31 points or more in eight games. However, there have been major lapses, mostly against the solid teams on the slate, and the defense has taken part of the season off. But in a game like this with nothing to lose, the Aggies are bowl eligible after last week’s 38-3 pounding of Baylor, it’s going to be bombs away in an attempt to ruin UT’s national title dreams.
Texas went from being good to phenomenal ever since the 16-13 battle against Oklahoma. Making it look easy, the Longhorn offense has blown up without a problem against good teams like Missouri, Oklahoma State, and UCF (don’t sneer, the Knights are playing extremely well), while the defense leads the nation against the run and is third in total D. So good have the Longhorns been, and so bad has the Big 12 been, that this has been sort of a fly-under-the-radar year, if that’s possible, for a team that was put in a position to win the national title from day one, and hasn’t disappointed. Everyone saw Texas beat Oklahoma, and there was a little bit of pub for the win over Oklahoma State, but mostly it’s been a year of quiet excellence with the team peaking at the right time. Next week it’s on to the Big 12 Championship against Nebraska and its vaunted defense, but this week it’s about the scoring.
Texas A&M can’t slow down Texas (Nebraska can, but that’s for next week), but the offense can certainly make this extremely interesting. Texas hasn’t exactly been tested by a high-octane offensive machine since the win over Texas Tech, who put 24 on the board, in mid-September. The 24 were the most points allowed in a game by the Longhorns, and it’s going to take a lot more than that for A&M throw a wrench into the BCS. But they’re going to give it a try in what has the potential to be an entertaining end to Thanksgiving Day.
Why Texas might win: Texas has major problems with good midrange passers. The secondary has been consistently ripped apart all season long giving up a Big 12-worst 259 yards per game, while the teams with great passing games, like Texas Tech, Oklahoma (occasionally) ,and Arkansas were able to fire at will. Anything positive the A&M defense can do starts with Von Miller and the incredible pass rush, but Colt McCoy is so quick with his release and his decision making ability that he should be able to exploit the mismatches and he should find a few wide open lanes to work with. Once he gets the ball to Jordan Shipley and his receivers on the move, it’s going to be track meet time. On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M is at its best with balance. The Aggies ran for 200 yards or more in all six wins, and in all five losses they were held to 132 yards or fewer. Texas has the nation’s No. 1 run defense, and A&M doesn’t have the O line to change that.
Why Texas A&M might win: Giddyup. Jerrod Johnson completed 4-of-11 passes for 62 yards and a touchdown last year in the 49-9 loss to the Longhorns, but he didn’t throw an interception. Since then, he has thrown just five picks with three coming in the blowout loss to Kansas State; he’s not making mistakes. Sometimes the offense will bog down and sometimes the opposing defensive pressure into the backfield is an issue, but Johnson has a deep arm who can test the Longhorn secondary deep. Johnson likes to run the option from time to time, but that’s not going to happen this week. Texas has faced some good passing games this year, but no one has tried to let it fly and take shot after shot down the field. Johnson can do that, and unlike several other dangerous quarterbacks OU has faced, like Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert, Texas Tech’s Taylor Potts, and Oklahoma’s Landry Jones (after Sam Bradford got knocked out for his career), Johnson is a veteran who won’t make a slew of mistakes. Todd Ressing of Kansas made an attempt to bomb away, but it didn’t work. Zac Robinson of Oklahoma State kept screwing up. Johnson has to be better than them to keep A&M alive.
Who to watch: Texas sophomore defensive back Earl Thomas won’t make any All-America first teams, but he’ll be in the discussion. He’s not that big and he’s not a big-time tackler, but he’s an elite playmaker when the ball is in the air with excellent closing speed and uncanny instincts. Thomas has come up with key picks against four of the high-end passing attacks on the schedule (Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Kansas), and he has been talented and versatile enough to be used both as a corner and a safety. Johnson won’t be afraid to test Thomas, but Thomas should win his share of battles.
What will happen: It’ll either be a 63-10 showcase for the Longhorns as they try to prove in front of a national audience that they really might be No. 1, or it’ll be a wild 38-34 battle with A&M getting just enough offense, and just enough turnovers, to make this the game everyone talks about after the long weekend. With fewer than five days to prepare, there won’t be a lot of wrinkles on either side. That helps the Aggies; they can keep it simple.
CFN Prediction: Texas 44 … Texas A&M 27 ... Line: Texas -21
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 4
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Nebraska (8-3) at Colorado (3-8), 3:30 EST, Saturday, November 27, ABC
Why to watch: Let the always interesting debate begin. How do you handle this game is you’re Nebraska? It doesn’t matter for the Huskers, they’re already in the Big 12 Championship against Texas next week and won’t improve their lot in life with a win, while a loss won’t hurt them in any way. Do they sit the stars and get a week of rest before the showdown, or do they want to go into the game rolling? Do they use this is as a live scrimmage to test some new things out, or does the coaching staff make it business as usual? There’s no way that a Bo Pelini-coached team does anything less than all-out, but Nebraska can be forgiven if it’s not 100% focused. On the flip side is Colorado, who’s playing out the string in an utter disaster of a season with the Dan Hawkins era likely coming to close. After losing to Iowa State and Oklahoma State over the last two weeks, bowl hopes are long gone, but beating the North champion would be a nice way to end the year.
Why Nebraska might win: The Colorado offense hasn’t gone anywhere all season long, and it’s not exactly going to get healthy against the Huskers. As far as the question of whether or not the Huskers will take this game seriously, the answer for the D, at least, is heck yeah. The pass defense is the best in the Big 12 helped by a tremendous pass rush that should camp out in the Buff backfield all game long. The Colorado offensive line doesn’t have a prayer of stopping Ndamukong Suh and the Husker defensive front, while the running game that averaged 84 yards per game won’t be going anywhere.
Why Colorado might win: It’s not like the Nebraska offense is setting the world on fire. Points have been hard to come by when the defense isn’t creating easy opportunities; the firepower isn’t there for the Huskers to pull away. Outside of the 31 points scored on Kansas and the tremendous fourth quarter against Missouri, the Nebraska attack has done a whole bunch of zip in play against BCS conference teams. Colorado has a quirky way of playing at another level once in a while in Boulder, and with nothing to lose, Hawkins will throw everything in the playbook at the Huskers. If the Buffs get up early, the Nebraska offense might not be able to come back.
Who to watch: The Big 12 world will revolve around Zac Lee for the next two weeks. The Nebraska quarterback has to use this game to try to make more things happen for the passing game before facing a Texas defense that won’t allow Roy Helu to do a thing for the ground game. Both Colorado and Texas will put everyone up on the line and dare Lee to make something happen, and while it has been his job to be a game manager, not screw up, and make a few plays here and there, he needs to start connecting on a few more deep plays. He has only thrown two touchdown passes in the last six games (to be fair, he didn’t play against Baylor), but he can at least give it a shot this week because 1) his defense will bail him out and 2) it doesn’t matter.
What will happen: Colorado will make this fun with an interesting group of trick plays with everything emptied out on the field. The Nebraska D will be up to the task.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 17 … Colorado 13 ... Line: Nebraska -8
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2.5
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Oklahoma State (9-2) at Oklahoma (6-5), 12:30 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: If you hooked up the Big 12 bigwigs to a lie detector and asked them what they’d love to see happen over the next two weeks, they’d like to see Texas win its last two games and go play for the national title, Boise State struggle against Nevada, if not lose, and for Oklahoma State to drill Oklahoma in the Bedlam Series with an impressive, dominating performance. If Oklahoma wins, then the Big 12 will only get one team into the BCS, Texas, unless Nebraska wins the title game. However, that would likely mean the national title shot is gone for the Longhorns. For the Cowboys to get to 10-2 and be in the discussion for an at-large BCS spot, it has to buck an ugly trend of six straight losses for OU with the last win coming in a 38-28 shocker in 2002. They haven’t exactly set the world on fire thanks to a slew of injuries, but they’ve managed to win eight of their last nine games, with the one loss to Texas, and can make a statement with a big win. However, Oklahoma is also looking to turn its season around. More accurately, it’s looking to pull up out of the nosedive after getting stomped by Texas Tech 41-13. The Sooners are looking to move up in the bowl picture and can help themselves with a convincing win.
Why Oklahoma State might win: So how did Texas Tech beat the Sooners in such an ugly blowout? There was a little bit of balance to the Red Raider attack, with Baron Batch coming up with an excellent game running for 136 yards and two scores, but the real reason was a great performance by the Tech defense that got to Landry Jones, forced mistakes, and held the OU ground attack to just 48 yards. Oklahoma State has just enough of a pass rush to bother Jones, while the run defense has been dominant allowing just 82 yards on the season. Basically, it’ll be up to Jones to win the game; flip a coin on what kind of a performance he’ll come up with.
Why Oklahoma might win: It’s a shame OSU isn’t fully rolling. RB Kendall Hunter has tried, but he simply isn’t able to cut properly on his banged up ankle. Keith Toston has filled in and produced, but the Oklahoma defense isn’t Colorado. Star WR Dez Bryant has been out since the beginning of the year, and while some players have stepped up, they’re not Bryant. And then there’s the quarterback situation. Alex Cate was a disaster against the Buffs, going 0-for-9 with an interception before Brandon Weeden came in and saved the game, and either one is needed in any way, it’s over. Zac Robinson is expected to be back after suffering an ugly concussion at the end of the Texas Tech win, but he’ll be watched very, very closely. Don’t expect the tremendous OU pass rush to take it easy to protect Robinson’s bruised brain. On the other side, as good as the Cowboy defense has been at times, it gives up yards through the air.
Who to watch: Oklahoma State corner Perrish Cox deserves to be in the mix for All-America honors as one of the nation’s best defenders throughout the year. Phenomenal at breaking up passes, he has 15 on the year, he gave Texas Tech nightmares early on with two picks (he has four on the year), and he has to be the first player that Jones spots on every play. Jones can’t be careless or Cox will come up big. While he’s not always technically sound and can get beat by gambling too much, he’ll win his share of battles if tested. The speedy senior has also been a game-changing kick returner averaging 11.29 yards per punt return and 21.5 yards per kickoff return.
What will happen: It’s Oklahoma at home. It’s a night-and-day better team than when it has to travel anywhere, but Oklahoma State is too good to let this get out of hand.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma 23 … Oklahoma State 20 ... Line: Oklahoma -10
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 4
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Week 13,
Part 2 (Missouri vs. Kansas, & More)
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