2009 ACC Fearless Predictions
Week 13 ... Nov. 28 Games, Part 2
Atlantic
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Boston College |
Clemson |
Florida
State |
Maryland |
NC
State |
Wake
Forest
Coastal
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Duke
| Georgia
Tech |
Miami
| North
Carolina |
Virginia |
Virginia Tech
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- Week
13, Part 1
North Carolina (8-3) at NC State (4-7),12:00 EST, ESPN2, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Sure, it’s been an up-and-down kind of year in Chapel Hill, but Butch Davis’ Carolina team certainly is resilient. After reaching rock bottom on Oct. 22 with a nationally-televised blown game versus Florida State, the Tar Heels have rallied for four consecutive wins, including making Virginia Tech and Miami their victims. Now with eight victories and a bowl game left to come, the program has a shot at 10 wins for the first time since Mack Brown was on the sidelines in 1997. NC State, on the other hand, couldn’t be riding a more opposite spectrum. Since beating Pittsburgh on Sept. 26, the Wolfpack has slumped into irrelevancy with six losses in the last seven games. Beating the rival Tar Heels for a third straight season will have to qualify as a postseason moment this fall.
Why North Carolina might win: The defense is playing about as well as any in America these days. Not only are the Tar Heels the nation’s fifth-ranked D, but it’s creating a slew of turnovers and has actually scored four touchdowns in the last two games. State’s one-dimensional offense just won’t cut it on this day. Carolina will bring all kinds of pressure from the likes of DE Robert Quinn and LB Quan Sturdivant, which creates opportunities for CB Kendric Burney and S Deunta Williams to take errant passes back the other way. Russell Wilson is no longer a mistake-free passer, having thrown a pick in each of the last seven games.
Why NC State might win: Okay, so what happens if the Carolina D doesn’t create its own points? The Tar Heel offense remains abysmal, ranking 113th nationally and getting no help from QB T.J. Yates and the passing game. In fact, Yates has thrown one touchdown pass in the last three weeks and is No. 12 in the league in passing efficiency. With little to worry about here, the battered Pack defense can take a deep breath and concentrate on stopping RB Ryan Houston. Tom O’Brien will stack the box with LB Audi Cole and S Clem Johnson, daring the Heels to beat the defense over the top. In a close, low-scoring rivalry game, you never know what might happen, especially on the road.
Who to watch: The NC State defense might actually be bad enough to make Carolina look potent for one weekend. Maybe. If the Heels want to spread the field a bit, it ought to look to get the ball in the hands of WR Erik Highsmith more often. A true freshman with substantial upside, he’s gotten better as the season’s progressed and has the 6-3 frame to create match up problems for the depleted Wolfpack secondary.
What will happen: The fact that Carolina needs the defense to generate points is a concern, but not so much that it won’t get a measure of revenge for the last two losses to NC State. Even if the Heel D doesn’t physically break the plane of the end zone, it’ll shut down the Wolfpack and create a bunch of short-field opportunities for the offense. While Yates might not turn those into six points, PK Casey Barth will benefit with yet another four-field goal day.
CFN Prediction: North Carolina 26 … NC State 17 ... Line: North Carolina -5
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2
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Florida State (6-5) at Florida (11-0), 3:30 EST, CBS, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Sure, it’s a lot less captivating when one of the participants is struggling, but Florida-Florida State is always going to be one of the most intense non-conference rivalries each year. Bragging rights will be at stake in Gainesville, especially for a Seminole team that’s been humbled repeatedly in 2009 and hasn’t won this game since 2003. The ‘Noles needed to rally to beat Maryland and become bowl-eligible a week ago, yet another indication of how far they’ve fallen from their once-lofty perch. With everyone fixated on next week’s date with Alabama for the SEC title, it’s easy to forget that the Gators still need to win this weekend to have a shot at a national championship. It’ll be the last game at the Swamp for the seniors, namely Tim Tebow, which is sure to generate a fair amount of emotion from the fans and the players.
Why Florida State might win: Florida has allowed a number of lesser opponents with it this fall, typically because the offense has failed to execute. Close calls with Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and South Carolina come to mind. In those games, the Gators averaged just 22 points, so this is not an offensive juggernaut, as history might suggest. The Seminoles do not have a great defense, but then again, neither do the Hogs or the Bulldogs. What they do have are athletes capable of running with Florida’s quicker skill position players. Athletes, like linebackers Nigel Bradham and Dekoda Watson, and corners Greg Reid and Patrick Robinson, who can keep Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps from getting to the edge and bringing the crowd to its feet.
Why Florida might win: With Christian Ponder behind center, maybe. With E.J. Manuel? Forget about it. This is the worst possible time for the Seminoles to be employing a raw redshirt freshman quarterback, who just got done throwing three picks versus a bad Maryland defense. He won’t stand a chance against a Gator D allowing nine points a game and ranking No. 2 nationally in total defense. From LB Brandon Spikes to CB Joe Haden, he’ll quickly get introduced to Florida’s bevy of defensive stars and the true speed of the college game. As prolific as Jermaine Thomas has been on the ground for Florida State in November, he’s about to run into a brick wall.
Who to watch: Tebow doesn’t have a ton of options when looking to exploit the porous Florida State pass defense, but when he does drop back to pass, he’ll likely be looking for Riley Cooper. What Jordan Shipley is to Colt McCoy over at Texas, he’s a sure-handed route runner, with a knack for getting behind the secondary. He’s caught four touchdown passes in the last four games, and like Tebow, will be playing his final game in Gainesville.
What will happen: It doesn’t matter that Florida State is just a game over .500. Florida will still revel in an opportunity to put the ‘Noles over its knee. The Seminoles can’t win this one with such a young player under center, but it could stay competitive if the Gators keep sputtering in the red zone. By early in the fourth quarter, Tebow will have plowed ahead for a couple of scores and Urban Meyer will be thinking ahead to ‘Bama.
CFN Prediction: Florida 34 … Florida State 16 ... Line: Florida -23
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 3.5
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Virginia Tech (8-3) at Virginia (3-8),3:30 EST, Saturday, ESPN, November 28
Why to watch: Virginia Tech is out of the ACC championship hunt for the first time in a few years. Virginia is stumbling to the finish line with a lame duck head coach. Yeah, this year’s rivalry will have a hard time generating much appeal outside the Commonwealth. While the Hokies have recovered from crippling losses in October by winning three straight in November, it wasn’t enough to catch streaking Georgia Tech in the Coastal Division. All that’s left now is to improve their bowl standing, possibly earning an invite to the Gator Bowl. After evening their record at the midway point of the season, the Cavaliers haven’t won since, dropping five straight games. The only interesting storyline around Charlottesville is when Al Groh will get the axe and who’ll succeed him.
Why Virginia Tech might win: If Virginia can’t score, it can’t be competitive. And it’s going to have a devil of a time moving the ball on this Hokie D. Tech has allowed just 22 points during the three-game winning streak, while shutting down opposing quarterbacks. It’s unrealistic to expect Jameel Sewell to have much success through the air on a defense that’ll get after him with ends Nekos Brown and Jason Worilds, and lock down his receivers with Stephan Virgil and Rashad Carmichael. The Cavs, scoring less than 20 points a game, simply don’t have the playmakers to beat this group of defenders to the perimeter.
Why Virginia might win: Every now and again, the Cavaliers will surprise you with an air-tight defensive effort. And every now and again, the Hokies will flop with the ball in their hands. Virginia has a solid secondary, spearheaded by cornerbacks Ras-I Dowling and Chris Cook, and is the reason the ‘Hoos are No. 22 nationally in pass efficiency defense. If they can take Jarrett Boykin out of the game and get some pressure up front from Nate Collins, Tech will be forced to operate as a one-dimensional attack. Never underestimate the danger of a team playing with nothing to lose in a rivalry game.
Who to watch: Boy, is Frank Beamer going to have a nice problem at running back in 2010 or what? A year ago, Darren Evans was the wunderkind 1,000-yard rusher. This year, it’s Ryan Williams, who’s been a revelation ever since supplanting an injured Evans in August. The redshirt freshman has missed 100 yards just three times all season, leading the ACC at 123 yards a game. Even after opening eyes in the spring, he’s exceeded everyone’s expectations in 2009.
What will happen: Virginia has been done for weeks, but Tech has just started to get its second wind. The Hokies have no plans to let up, especially in the building of an arch-rival. They’ll shut down whatever the Cavs try on offense and get more than enough on offense from Williams and QB Tyrod Taylor to send Groh off with his eighth loss in nine tries in this rivalry.
CFN Prediction: Virginia Tech 30 … Virginia 13 ... Line: Virginia Tech -13
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2
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Boston College (7-4) at Maryland (2-9),3:30 EST, Saturday, ESPNU, November 28
Why to watch: Considering all of the changes and drama in the offseason, the expectations weren’t very high at Boston College this year. Yet, with wins in College Park and in a bowl game, the Eagles can still claim nine victories, a huge accomplishment for first-year head coach Frank Spaziani. Any momentum that they can secure now will benefit a young team that’s going to be very dangerous in 2010, especially if LB Mark Herzlich gets back on the field. For Maryland, on the other hand, this campaign cannot end soon enough. Though the Terrapins did put up a fight in Tallahassee last week, they’ve muddled through 2009, with little to cheer about and not a single ACC team beneath them in the standings. Will Ralph Friedgen be back on the sidelines next fall? It’s about the only thing creating discussion around campus these days.
Why Boston College might win: Battered and beaten down for the last two months, the Maryland defense won’t be able to stop RB Montel Harris or the physical line he runs behind. The sophomore has rushed for well over 100 yards in four of the last five games, and will find plenty of daylight in the Terrapin D. Once he softens up the front seven, it’ll open things up for QB David Shinskie to connect with top targets Colin Larmond and Rich Gunnell. Maryland can forget about running on LB Luke Kuechly, DT Damik Scafe, and a hearty run defense allowing just 108 yards a game on the ground.
Why Maryland might win: If the Terps are forced to be somewhat one-dimensional on offense, so be it. Jamarr Robinson has improved as the emergency starter behind center and senior Chris Turner is hoping to be back from injury for his final game with the program. Last weekend at Florida State, Maryland racked up more than 400 total yards, evidence that the offense hasn’t quit on the season. Receivers Torrey Smith and Adrian Cannon will cause fits for a Boston College secondary that’s been vulnerable at times this year.
Who to watch: You’ll run out of adjectives to describe Kuechly after watching just one of his games. He plays with tremendous instincts, takes the right angles, and never misses a tackle. He leads the Eagles with 126 stops, which is twice his nearest competition. The last word you’d use to describe the linebacker? Freshman, which defies all logic considering he’s just a few months removed from high school.
What will happen: It’s hard to gauge what Maryland will have left after blowing a late lead in Tallahassee last weekend, arguably its last stand. Boston College will put a final stake in the Terps, combining a 150 yards on the ground from Harris with a suffocating defense that makes opponents earn every first down.
CFN Prediction: Boston College 24 … Maryland 17 ... Line: Boston College -6
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 1.5
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- Week
13, Part 1