2009 ACC Fearless Predictions
Week 13 ... Nov. 28 Games
Atlantic
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Boston College |
Clemson |
Florida
State |
Maryland |
NC
State |
Wake
Forest
Coastal
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Duke
| Georgia
Tech |
Miami
| North
Carolina |
Virginia |
Virginia Tech
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13, Part 2 (Virginia Tech at Virginia, NC at NC St,
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Game of the Week
Georgia (6-5) at Georgia Tech (10-1),8:00 EST, Saturday, ABC, November 28
Why to watch: My, how the winds of change have swept into this annual rivalry. Georgia, which owned Georgia Tech throughout the decade, is staring at its worst season since 1996 and a second straight loss to the resurgent Yellow Jackets. The Dawgs may have located the bottom floor of the 2009 season a week ago, blowing a late lead and losing at home to Kentucky. Can things get any worse for Mark Richt? You bet. Tech is residing in a completely different neighborhood these days, embedded in the top 10, winners of eight straight games, and coasting into the ACC championship game versus Clemson. After years of playing second-fiddle in the state, fans on the Flats are hoping to be singing a different tune throughout Saturday night.
Why Georgia might win: For all of the success that Tech is having, the defense remains a work-in-progress. The secondary, in particular, is an issue, giving up 20 touchdown passes and ranking 94th nationally in pass efficiency D. The Bulldogs are aiming to capitalize with QB Joe Cox and his collection of young receivers. Yeah, Cox has been erratic, but he’s also the type of veteran who won’t be unnerved by a raucous opposing crowd. His mission, with the help of TE Orson Charles and receivers Rantavious Wooten and Tavarres King, will be to create match up problems with the vulnerable Jacket defensive backs. If A.J. Green can make it back from his shoulder injury, even better.
Why Georgia Tech might win: Time and time again, it’s been clear that this is not a vintage Georgia defense. Yeah, Rennie Curran is a rock at linebacker and DE Justin Houston is having a breakout year, but more is needed. Much more from a team that’s allowed at least 34 points five times already. Tech’s option attack has been humming behind QB Josh Nesbitt and B-back Jonathan Dwyer since the winning streak began at the end of September. Now averaging 314 yards a game on the ground, the Yellow Jackets are on a tear, incorporating other ballcarriers, like Anthony Allen and Roddy Jones. The Dawgs also can’t overlook Nesbitt as a passer, or else WR Demaryius Thomas will get behind the secondary at least two or three times.
Who to watch: The Yellow Jackets need a big night on defense from rover Morgan Burnett, the unit’s best all-around athlete. A junior playmaker in every sense of the word, he’ll stop the run, but will be particularly valuable when the ball is in the air. He leads the team in interceptions for a second straight year, which ought to concern Cox, who’s been picked off as much as any other SEC quarterback.
What will happen: This is going to be a coronation type game for Georgia Tech, which will not pass up an opportunity to kick the Dawgs when they’re down. Georgia will certainly be motivated to treat this trip like it’s true bowl game, but emotion and want-to get you only so far against the Yellow Jacket running game. Nesbitt will once again stand out as the point man and Dwyer will continue his second-half surge, burying the Bulldogs for 150 yards on the ground and a long, back-breaking touchdown burst.
CFN Prediction: Georgia Tech 35 … Georgia 24 ... Line: Georgia Tech -7
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 3.5
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Miami (8-3) at South Florida (7-3), 3:30 EST, Saturday, ABC, November 28
Why to watch: Having already toppled Florida State back on Sept. 26, South Florida has a chance to send shockwaves throughout the region with another win over one of the state’s Big 3 programs. The Bulls became bowl-eligible by beating Louisville a week ago, but this week’s visit from Miami trumps any St. Petersburg or International Bowl on so many levels. Beat the ‘Canes, and only top-ranked Florida would stand between USF claiming it’s the Sunshine State’s top team of 2009. Can you say recruiting windfall? Miami will have to remain focused this week, knowing it has little to gain in Tampa. Yeah, a better bowl destination could be at stake, but it won’t be the BCS variety, and after zooming past Duke a week ago, 34-16, it can’t do better than second place tie in the ACC Coastal Division. Since peaking at No. 8 in the rankings a month ago, the Hurricanes have shown their youth with an inconsistent and mistake-filled November.
Why Miami might win: Yeah, Jacory Harris needs to cut down on his turnovers, but the Hurricane offense continues to churn out the yards and the points when he’s not making mistakes. The sophomore is surrounded by a spate of talented skill position players, who have the speed and athleticism to really challenge the South Florida defenders. Graig Cooper, Javarris James, and Damien Berry give the running game three viable options to ensure that no one is gassed in the final 30 minutes. Leonard Hankerson has evolved into Miami’s top receiver, and TE Jimmy Graham, a former basketball player, has become a more consistent threat in the passing game.
Why South Florida might win: Might the Bulls have the more dangerous quarterback in this game? The reality is that Harris has thrown 17 interceptions, including one in all but two games this season. He’ll have more problems in the face of the athletic and opportunistic South Florida D that leads the Big East in pass efficiency defense. With George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul up front, Kion Wilson in the middle, and Nate Allen and Jerome Murphy in the secondary, the Bulls have all-star caliber defenders at each level. On the other hand, B.J. Daniels is going up against an ordinary ‘Cane defense that’s been hampered by injuries and is ninth in the ACC in sacks. Plus, he’s coming off a heroic effort in the Louisville win, becoming the first quarterback in Big East history to throw for 300 yards and run for 100 more on the same day.
Who to watch: This game boils down to the two young quarterbacks, who, along with Florida’s John Brantley and Florida State’s Christian Ponder, will dominate headlines in the state again next year. While Daniels has flashed all of the inconsistency you’d expect from a redshirt freshman, Harris has regressed in his second year, forcing Randy Shannon to come to his defense. If he gets outplayed by a lesser-known hurler from South Florida, the hand-wringing and eye-rolling will reach a new level around Coral Gables.
What will happen: While both teams will be motivated on Saturday afternoon, South Florida’s intensity and want-to will be off the charts. This game really matters in Tampa, and it’ll show in the effort of the Bulls. It’s been a while since Miami has looked sharp for 60 minutes, so it’s ripe for the upset. USF will harass Harris all day, forcing him into a couple of costly picks that give Daniels short-field opportunities. With one final chance to win it late, the ‘Canes will get stuffed by the South Florida D, bringing thousands of fans out of the stands and on to the field at Raymond James Stadium.
CFN Prediction: South Florida 27 … Miami 24 ... Line: Miami -7
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 3
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Clemson (8-3) at South Carolina (6-5),12:00 EST, ESPN, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: You can throw out the records when South Carolina and Clemson meet in their annual Palmetto State rivalry game; the hatred and intensity are already prepackaged into this one. The Gamecocks enter this year’s edition a little more ornery than normal, having dropped three straight prior to the bye week and four of the last five. Clearly a middling SEC squad headed to a second-rate bowl game, they’d like nothing more than to take some of the wind out of Clemson’s sails. The Tigers are one of the hottest teams in the country, winning six consecutive games to clinch the Coastal Division and earn a berth opposite Georgia Tech in next week’s ACC title game. They’ve won six of the last seven in this series and haven’t lost in Columbia since 2001.
Why Clemson might win: Everything has come together for the Tigers during this run to Tampa. QB Kyle Parker is no longer playing like a freshman, RB C.J. Spiller is enjoying the best stretch of his career, and the D has consistently been among the ACC’s toughest. It’s that defense, which will cause the biggest problems for South Carolina. The Gamecocks cannot run the ball, struggle in pass protect, and don’t figure to improve on their 20-point average this weekend. Plus, the supposed strength, the passing attack, will be traveling head on into the nation’s No. 12 pass defense. It figures to be a long day for QB Stephen Garcia, who’ll spend a lot of time on his back or dodging speedy ends Ricky Sapp and Da’Quan Bowers.
Why South Carolina might win: When the Gamecocks raise the bar, it’s often because of the play of the defense. South Carolina is No. 17 nationally in total defense and is especially difficult to navigate through the air. In fact, it’s yielded just five touchdown passes over the last eight weeks. Parker has been good, but he’s still a rookie, who’s capable of wilting in the face of LB Eric Norwood and ends Clifton Geathers and Cliff Matthews. That Gamecock secondary, which was so inexperienced in September, has grown up around young corners Stephon Gilmore and Akeem Auguste, and will have the edge on a thin Clemson receiving corps.
Who to watch: While Garcia is making much better decisions as a sophomore, he’s still prone to making poor reads that’ll get his team in trouble. The Clemson secondary won’t make his life any simpler. The Tigers feature a veteran group that ball hawks about as well as any in the country, picking off 15 and batting down a bunch. Garcia out to pay special attention to safeties DeAndre McDaniel and Rashard Hall, who have 13 of those interceptions between them.
What will happen: Although trends tend to go out the window in these types oames, it’s hard to deny just how well Clemson is executing these days. Or how poorly South Carolina is playing, for that matter. While the Gamecock defense will keep things close for a while, Spiller or Ford will eventually give the Tigers a little breathing room, exploiting one of the worst special teams coverage units in the country.
CFN Prediction: Clemson 28 … South Carolina 20 ... Line: Clemson -3
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 3
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Wake Forest (4-7) at Duke (5-6),12:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Well, it was fun while it last lasted, Duke fans. The Blue Devils flirted with bowl eligibility throughout the month of November, but came up short with consecutive losses to North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Miami. All that’s left now for David Cutcliffe and his young program is to shoot for a .500 season and try to build more momentum for 2010. Wake Forest is in a similar situation, though any chance of evening the record went by the wayside in the loss to Florida State two weeks ago, its fifth in-a-row. Out of the bowl picture for the first time since 2005, the Demon Deacons are in the unfamiliar position of playing out the string and simply trying to send off the seniors with one final victory.
Why Wake Forest might win: Well-rested and coming off a bye week, the Deacon offense will get a crack at a Duke D that’s banged up and running out oas. The Blue Devils have allowed 83 points over the last two games and could be without star DT Vince Oghobaase. Wake Forest has been able to move the ball all year behind veteran QB Riley Skinner and an exciting ensemble of receivers. Marshall Williams, Devon Brown, and Chris Givens will create headaches for an average Duke back seven.
Why Duke might win: Wake Forest never quite adjusted to the offseason losses of so many key defenders, and it showed throughout the year. The Deacons have the ACC’s 10th-ranked defense and have allowed a ton of points over the last two months. The Blue Devils will capitalize with a Thaddeus Lewis-led passing game that leads the league at almost 300 yards a game. The senior has performed like an all-star, throwing 17 touchdown passes and helping along the maturity of a young and improving set of receivers. If this becomes a track meet, Lewis has the supporting cast to keep Duke going stride-for-stride.
Who to watch: The best of those young Duke receivers has been sophomore Donovan Varner, though Conner Vernon, Austin Kelly, and Johnny Williams are no slouches either. Varner, however, has become the go-to guy in Durham, catching a team-high 54 passes for 873 yards and six touchdowns. He had a career-day against the Miami secondary a week ago, and is poised to continue growing in the second half of his Blue Devil career.
What will happen: While both teams enter this weekend disappointed, you get the feeling that Duke is genuine about wanting to finish at .500 or better for the first time since 1994. It’d be a milestone and a stepping stone for a school headed in the right direction. In an entertaining, pass-happy game, Lewis will complete his legacy with the program by leading the Blue Devils to the game-winning drive in the waning moments.
CFN Prediction: Duke 28 … Wake Forest 27 ... Line: Wake Forest -3
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 1.5
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- Week
13, Part 2 (Virginia Tech at Virginia, NC at NC St,
& more)