2009 Pac 10 Fearless Predictions
Week 13 ... Nov. 28 Games
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Arizona
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California
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Oregon
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Stanford |
UCLA
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USC |
Washington
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Washington St
Pac 10 Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
UCLA (6-5) at USC (7-3),10:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: It’s been a while since UCLA has had this good of a chance to take a small step outside of the long USC shadow. The Bruins have won three in-a-row to gain bowl eligibility and some much-needed confidence. The Trojans have gotten routed in two of the last three games, and are in the unfamiliar position of being out of the Pac-10 race. While it’s not as if this is about to become a Bruin town anytime soon, this could be the opening that Rick Neuheisel has been looking for since returning to Westwood. USC got a week off to clear its head, regain its focus, and try to get a head start on 2010 with a strong finish to 2009.
Why UCLA might win: USC’s struggles on offense aren’t likely to get solved this weekend in the face of the UCLA D. The Bruins allow a league-low 20 points a game and give up little ground in pass defense. They’re strong at every level, challenging the opposition with All-America candidates, like DT Brian Price, LB Reggie Carter, S Rahim Moore, and CB Alterraun Verner. The Trojans are a mess on offense, averaging 18 points over the last three games and failing miserably in the red zone. Plus, QB Matt Barkley has begun to play like a rookie, throwing a pick in each of the last six games, including three in the latest loss to Stanford.
Why USC might win: Yeah, the Trojans might struggle to score touchdowns, but they won’t be alone. UCLA has even bigger headaches on offense, ranking ninth in the league in scoring and sporting no semblance of a running game. USC may not be USC on defense, but you’re not going to beat these athletes with a limp, one-dimensional attack. The Trojans will relish a chance to flex their muscles against a flimsy Bruin offensive line, harassing young Kevin Prince with a combination of ends Everson Griffin and Nick Perry, and linebackers Michael Morgan and Chris Galippo. Two weeks of watching film of the Stanford debacle will have this group feeling a little ornery come Saturday night.
Who to watch: USC LB Malcolm Smith made the most of his increased snaps two weeks ago, making 11 tackles and showing nice range. He’d been slowed by a shoulder injury, but is close to full-strength and ready to regain his starting job at weakside. If Morgan remains bothered by an injury of his own, freshman DE Devon Kennard could take a step back and earn a start at strongside.
What will happen: The defenses figure to dominate in a game that isn’t going to be very easy on the eyes. Both offenses are led by erratic freshmen quarterbacks and have not been executing with razor-like precision. The Trojan D will be just a step quicker and more opportunistic than the Bruins, helping the program avoid a third embarrassing loss of the past month.
CFN Prediction: USC 27 … UCLA 16 ... Line: USC -13
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2.5
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Arizona (6-4) at Arizona State (4-7),3:30 EST, ABC, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: In two short weeks, the landscape has changed dramatically in Tucson. The same Arizona team that controlled its own destiny in the Pac-10 not long ago is now trying to prevent the season from going into a tailspin. Even after losing at Cal a week earlier, the Wildcats were still painfully close to Pasadena, but lost a double-overtime heartbreaker to Oregon, 44-41, that could create a hangover effect. Of course, things could always be worse. They could be the Sun Devils. Arizona State continued its late-season swoon, losing at UCLA, its fifth consecutive defeat. This program, which was flush with so much hope when Dennis Erickson got on board in 2007, is now mired in mediocrity and destined to finish in ninth place in the conference.
Why Arizona might win: The Sun Devils’ inability to score has haunted them throughout the season. There’s simply no consistency at quarterback and a feeble running game averages just 122 yards. While the Wildcat D hasn’t been great lately, it won’t have to be to get its hands on the Territorial Cup. Now that DE Brooks Reed is healthy enough to play, he joins Ricky Elmore and Earl Mitchell to give Arizona a feisty front line. On the outside, Arizona State doesn’t have enough playmakers to beat the corner tandem of Devin Ross and Trevin Wade. The ‘Cats won’t need to erupt on offense to get out of Tempe with win No. 7.
Why Arizona State might win: Despite getting no support from the other side of the ball, the Sun Devils continue to harbor one of the more underrated defenses in the country. They lead the Pac-10 in total D, playing equally tough against the run as the pass. Tackles Saia Falahola and Lawrence Guy, and linebackers Vontaze Burfict and Mike Nixon help give Arizona State a front seven that can shut down the Arizona ground game and force QB Nick Foles into third-and-long situations. While the Wildcats might still be wallowing in last Saturday’s emotionally-draining loss, the Devils are treating this like their bowl game.
Who to watch: The biggest beneficiary of Foles’ promotion back in late September has been sophomore WR Juron Criner, who has played his way into All-Pac-10 contention. Used sparingly in the early going, he’s emerged as the go-to receiver, catching a team-high 34 passes and three touchdown passes in last week’s loss to Oregon. The pair still has two more seasons left in Tucson, which is encouraging news for the Wildcat offense.
What will happen: It’ll be a nip-and-tuck defensive struggle for all 60 minutes, as Arizona spends the first two quarters trying to shake the cobwebs and match Arizona State’s intensity. The Wildcats are destined to be dragged into another emotional nail-biter, needing a Greg Nwoko plunge late in the final quarter to eke out a win over a game bunch of Sun Devils.
CFN Prediction: Arizona 24 … Arizona State 20 ... Line: Arizona -3
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2
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Washington State (1-10) at Washington (3-7),6:30 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: As bad as Washington and Washington State have been in recent years, the Apple Cup has taken on even greater meaning for both schools. If nothing else, it represents the last chance to carve out something positive before heading off to another long and bowl-less postseason. While the Huskies’ first year under Steve Sarkisian began with so much promise, sustaining it has been another issue. As hard as it is to digest, U-Dub has won just a single game since shocking USC way back on Sept. 19. Wazzu has been even less fortunate this fall, winning just a once, ironically on the same day that the Huskies made national headlines. Head coach Paul Wulff is excited about the Cougars’ future, but he might be on his own with that level of optimism.
Why Washington State might win: The offense has some playmakers capable of taking advantage of a soft Washington defense. The Huskies are No. 9 in the league in just about every statistical category, yielding 421 yards and 31 points a game. The Cougars aren’t going to run it, so they’ll put the ball in the hands of Kevin Lopina and Jeff Tuel if he’s healthy enough to put on pads. The quarterbacks are surrounded by an athletic ensemble of pass-catchers that’s comprised of Jared Karstetter, Gino Simone, and Johnny Forzani.
Why Washington might win: The Husky D may be bad, but the Cougars are a full rung lower on the ladder. Wazzu can’t stop anyone, ranking in the FBS basement in total defense. And the trend won’t be flipped in this week’s trip to Seattle. If this is QB Jake Locker’s final Apple Cup, he’ll leave a lasting impression, burning the Cougs on the ground and through the air. He’s made a quantum leap as a passer under Sarkisian, firing 17 touchdown passes and maximizing the talents of receivers Jermaine Kearse and Devin Aguilar, and TE Kavario Middleton. Balance will come from RB Chris Polk, who’s rushed for 100 yards in each of the last three games and is closing in on 1,000 yards.
Who to watch: Washington State’s problems protecting the passer will be exacerbated this weekend by Washington DE Daniel Te'o-Nesheim. Though not a household name, he’s been one Huskies’ warriors throughout the tough times, always playing with high intensity and a positive attitude. He has a team-high 5.5 sacks this year, a number that could jump to eight or nine by late Saturday evening.
What will happen: Washington has been waiting a full year to exact some revenge on Washington State for last year’s last-second loss in Pullman. It’s going to get it for all four quarters, roughing up a tooth-less Cougar team that isn’t playing with a legitimate Pac-10 defense. The Huskies will rack up more than 500 yards of total offense, rolling to their easiest Apple Cup victory in years.
CFN Prediction: Washington 38 … Washington State 13 ... Line: Washington -24
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 1.5
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Notre Dame (6-5) at Stanford (7-4),8:00 EST, ABC, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Okay, rubberneckers, this could be your last opportunity to watch Charlie Weis squirm. The Notre Dame head coach has been in the eye of a national storm since his team lost to Navy on Nov. 7 to start a well-publicized three-game losing streak. Last Saturday, the Irish was beaten by Connecticut, the second straight year it lost to an average Big East opponent on Senior Day. Although the outcome of this game is unlikely to impact Weis’ future one way or the other, it still qualifies as a pretty dramatic event in the Golden Dome world. Yeah, Stanford took a Big Game detour on its way to the big time, but a visit from the Irish affords it another nationally-televised opportunity to show how far it’s progressed under Jim Harbaugh. The Cardinal can also use this weekend as a vehicle to enhance the exposure of RB Toby Gerhart, who’s up for a number of national awards.
Why Notre Dame might win: As long as Jimmy Clausen is eligible and upright, the Irish has a shot at snapping the losing streak and deflecting some attention away from its coach. Notre Dame is No. 6 nationally in passing offense, a concern for a Stanford secondary that’s allowed 11 touchdown passes in the last five games and ranks 97th in pass defense. There are too many weapons out on the perimeter, like future pros Golden Tate and Michael Floyd, for an average Cardinal defensive backfield to contain. After seeing Cal’s Shane Vereen gash Stanford for 193 yards and three scores, the Irish might want to give a few more carries to Armando Allen as well.
Why Stanford might win: Every time the Irish has faced a talented back this season, it’s wilted. Vince Murray at Navy, Dion Lewis at Pitt, and Andre Dixon and Jordan Todman, have all gone well over 100 yards on Notre Dame in the last three weeks. So, too, will Gerhart. Arguably the best back the Irish will try to stop this season, he’s a 235-pound horse, who’ll carry tacklers and bring opposing defenses to their knees. The Cardinal will be eager to showcase its cover boy to a chunk of the nation that’s yet to see No. 7 in action. If Notre Dame focuses too many resources to stopping him, it’ll open up the field for receivers Chris Owusu and Ryan Whalen to get behind a beatable last line of defense.
Who to watch: We’re going to learn a lot this week about Andrew Luck, the young Stanford quarterback coming off the worst game of his brief career. Does he bounce back or does the 10-of-30 performance and crushing pick down the stretch haunt him beyond the Cal game? As good as Gerhart is between the tackles, the Cardinal offense is markedly more dangerous when Luck is on his game and defenses have to respect the vertical game.
What will happen: For Stanford, this is huge. It’s a chance for the coach, the players, and the community to show off on a broad stage just how far it’s come over the past few years. It’s not about to fumble that opportunity. Gerhart will run wild on the Notre Dame defense, and possibly strike a pose if his teammates can goad him into it. Clausen will keep the situation competitive, but he’ll also absorb plenty of hits from a Cardinal defense that likes to force the action and create pressure.
CFN Prediction: Stanford 35 … Notre Dame 27 ... Line: Stanford -10
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 3.5
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