2009 SEC Fearless Predictions
Week 13 ... Nov. 28 Games, Part 2
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Florida
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Georgia
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Kentucky
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South Carolina
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Tennessee
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Vanderbilt
West
Alabama
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Arkansas
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Auburn
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LSU |
Ole Miss
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Miss State
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Week 13, Part 1
Tennessee (6-5) at Kentucky (7-4),7:00 EST, Saturday, November 28, ESPNU
Why to watch: Everyone who had Kentucky pegged as the No. 2 team coming out of the SEC East raise your hand. No one could’ve predicted how badly Georgia would collapse, and no one could’ve guessed the Kentucky could be 7-4 with a disastrous array of injuries and a three game early losing streak. And then came the second half of the schedule when things started to easy up in a big way with teams like ULM, Eastern Kentucky, and Vanderbilt on the slate. That the Wildcats blew the home layup against Mississippi State is all that kept them from being a lock for a New Year’s Day bowl right now. Winners of their last six, including last week’s victory over the Dawgs, the Cats will be all but certain to go to a nice Florida bowl on New Year’s Day with a win. For Tennessee, a win would throw the SEC bowl picture into a tizzy. If Georgia can beat Georgia Tech, and the Dawgs, Cats, and Vols all end up 7-5, then it becomes a beauty contest. But if Georgia loses and Tennessee wins, then in his first year at the helm, Lane Kiffin might take his team to the Outback Bowl.
Why Tennessee might win: Kentucky doesn’t do well against good running teams. The secondary has been fine, but with a struggling defensive front that doesn’t generate much pressure and has problems making plays behind the line, UK could have a big problem with Montario Hardesty. The UT back is coming off a 171-yard rushing day against Vanderbilt and is well over the 1,000-yard mark. He got 32 carries last week and could get at least that many again as the Vols try to establish the running game early on, will try to get up early by pounding away, and will hope for the awful UK passing game to try for the comeback.
Why Kentucky might win: Dexter McCluster. Tennessee has had problems with smallish, quick backs, and while it might not be time to put Derrick Locke in the same paragraph as McCluster, or some of Florida’s lightning bug backs, or Auburn’s Ben Tate, he’s not that far off. The junior has phenomenal athleticism and next-level speed, and he’s fully past a knee injury that knocked him out last year. If he can get going, he’s the exact type of runner who could put up 100 yards and control the game against the good Vol defense. Defensively, the strong UK secondary could make life hard for …
Who to watch: Jonathan Crompton. The oft-maligned quarterback completed 6-of-8 passes for 101 yards and a score in last year’s win over the Wildcats, but with the way he’s playing, he could riddle the UK secondary. With 11 touchdown passes and one interception in his last three games, Crompton has settle down and has been far more efficient. The bigger story for Tennessee is the reemergence of starting safety Janzen Jansen, who was originally caught up in the armed robbery charges that Mike Edwards and NuKeese Richardson got involved in. But the prosecutor didn’t charge Jansen because of failure of evidence, and now the Vols get their emerging star of a safety back.
What will happen: Hardesty will run well, Crompton will throw for 200, and Tennessee will be playing on New Year’s Day.
CFN Prediction: Tennessee 27 … Kentucky 20 ... Line: Tennessee -3
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 3.5
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Arkansas (7-4) at LSU (8-3), 7:00 EST, Saturday, November 28, ESPN
Why to watch: Florida and Alabama will be in the BCS meaning there are three prime SEC bowl slots to fill. One is the Outback, which typically goes to the best available team in the East (likely the winner of the Kentucky vs. Tennessee game), and the other two, the Capital One and the Cotton, typically go to the SEC West. If Ole Miss beats Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl it’ll likely be Capital One bound, meaning (keeping in mind that bowl scenarios always get wacky at the 11th hour … like if Auburn beats Alabama) that the winner of this game will probably get to go to Dallas for the Cotton. While that might be a bit of a disappointment for an LSU team that dreams of playing in the BCS every year, it would be a tremendous step forward for Arkansas in the second year under Bobby Petrino.
Thanks to the record-setting passing season of Ryan Mallett, and an advantageous four-game homestand, Arkansas went on a run of wins to put itself in a position for a big bowl bid. The Hogs have the SEC’s best offense and have been bombing away to a good season, but their best win this season came against Auburn. That’s good, but beating LSU would bring a whole other level of validity to the season and would make Arkansas the hot team going into the offseason and 2010 (sort of like Ole Miss was the darling of the 2009 offseason). But LSU also wants to make a statement. This isn’t the juggernaut of a Tiger team that SEC fans are used to, but the three losses have come to Florida, Alabama, and Ole Miss, with last week’s loss to the Rebels finalized by a brain-cramp of a final few minutes by the coaching staff when it came to clock management; the team is doing something right to get into this position. However, a loss would mean a rough November with three defeats in the final four games.
If nothing else, if history holds true, this should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Arkansas has won the last two, including the stunner in 2006 that appeared at the time to be a deathblow to LSU’s national title dream. The last four games between the two have been decided by one, two, five, and two points. This should be just as close.
Why Arkansas might win: The LSU offense doesn’t have the firepower to keep up if the Arkansas offense starts to work. The Hog defense hasn’t been a rock, but it has gotten better over the last few weeks and it doesn’t have a running game to worry about. The loss of Charles Scott to a shoulder injury killed the LSU ground, even though he wasn’t having a stellar year thanks to a mediocre offensive line, and then another blow came with the loss of Keiland Williams to an ankle injury. Jordan Jefferson and the Tiger passing attack are fine, but this isn’t a high-octane offense. LSU has given up yards through the air to some decent passers like Washington’s Jake Locker and Georgia’s Joe Cox, and it’s about to get bombed on. With no pass rush to get to Mallett, the LSU back seven will have to be flawless.
Why LSU might win: Yeah, the Arkansas defense has looked better on paper, and on the field, but that’s partly because the last four games were against Eastern Michigan, South Carolina, Troy, and Mississippi State. Yeah, Troy has a tremendous passing game, but it’s still a Sun Belt team. LSU has a few NFL caliber wide receivers who can get the offense going against the Hog secondary, and while Jefferson might not be Mallett as a bomber, he’s efficient enough to keep the attack moving. Arkansas has played three road games this year, and while they were killers (Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss), they were all losses. Going to Death Valley doesn’t exactly help the overall record when it comes to away games.
Who to watch: The world saw a little bit of Mallett in the Florida game, and while he struggled with a 12-of-27 performance, he was plagued by drops and he came up with the one big pass play needed to make it interesting. However, against Alabama, Florida, and Ole Miss, the sophomore star has completed just 36-of-96 passes (38% … he completed 12 passes in each game) with three touchdown passes and an interception. Those were also three of his four worst yardage games of the season, with the fourth a blowout over Eastern Michigan that he didn’t play in for most of the second half. He’ll get the national spotlight and he’ll get the eye of all the NFL scouts. Conventional wisdom is that he’s not even close to being ready for the next level, but if he came out, he’d probably be a first round pick. He has to show he can light up a good defense to have any thought of jumping ship early.
What will happen: The LSU defense will keep the Arkansas passing game from blowing up, but the offense will be stunned by the Hog pass rush. LSU can’t run the ball, Jefferson won’t get enough time to work, and in a battle of passing games, Arkansas has the upper hand.
CFN Prediction: Arkansas 23 … LSU 22 ... Line: LSU -3
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 4
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Georgia (6-5) at Georgia Tech (10-1),8:00 EST, Saturday, ABC, November 28
Why to watch: My, how the winds of change have swept into this annual rivalry. Georgia, which owned Georgia Tech throughout the decade, is staring at its worst season since 1996 and a second straight loss to the resurgent Yellow Jackets. The Dawgs may have located the bottom floor of the 2009 season a week ago, blowing a late lead and losing at home to Kentucky. Can things get any worse for Mark Richt? You bet. Tech is residing in a completely different neighborhood these days, embedded in the top 10, winners of eight straight games, and coasting into the ACC championship game versus Clemson. After years of playing second-fiddle in the state, fans on the Flats are hoping to be singing a different tune throughout Saturday night.
Why Georgia might win: For all of the success that Tech is having, the defense remains a work-in-progress. The secondary, in particular, is an issue, giving up 20 touchdown passes and ranking 94th nationally in pass efficiency D. The Bulldogs are aiming to capitalize with QB Joe Cox and his collection of young receivers. Yeah, Cox has been erratic, but he’s also the type of veteran who won’t be unnerved by a raucous opposing crowd. His mission, with the help of TE Orson Charles and receivers Rantavious Wooten and Tavarres King, will be to create match up problems with the vulnerable Jacket defensive backs. If A.J. Green can make it back from his shoulder injury, even better.
Why Georgia Tech might win: Time and time again, it’s been clear that this is not a vintage Georgia defense. Yeah, Rennie Curran is a rock at linebacker and DE Justin Houston is having a breakout year, but more is needed. Much more from a team that’s allowed at least 34 points five times already. Tech’s option attack has been humming behind QB Josh Nesbitt and B-back Jonathan Dwyer since the winning streak began at the end of September. Now averaging 314 yards a game on the ground, the Yellow Jackets are on a tear, incorporating other ballcarriers, like Anthony Allen and Roddy Jones. The Dawgs also can’t overlook Nesbitt as a passer, or else WR Demaryius Thomas will get behind the secondary at least two or three times.
Who to watch: The Yellow Jackets need a big night on defense from rover Morgan Burnett, the unit’s best all-around athlete. A junior playmaker in every sense of the word, he’ll stop the run, but will be particularly valuable when the ball is in the air. He leads the team in interceptions for a second straight year, which ought to concern Cox, who’s been picked off as much as any other SEC quarterback.
What will happen: This is going to be a coronation type game for Georgia Tech, which will not pass up an opportunity to kick the Dawgs when they’re down. Georgia will certainly be motivated to treat this trip like it’s true bowl game, but emotion and want-to get you only so far against the Yellow Jacket running game. Nesbitt will once again stand out as the point man and Dwyer will continue his second-half surge, burying the Bulldogs for 150 yards on the ground and a long, back-breaking touchdown burst.
CFN Prediction: Georgia Tech 35 … Georgia 24 ... Line: Georgia Tech -7
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 3.5
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Week 13, Part 1
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