2009 C-USA Fearless Predictions
Week 13 ... Nov. 28 Games, Part 2
East
UAB |
UCF
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East
Carolina
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Marshall
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Memphis
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Southern
Miss
West
Houston |
Rice
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SMU
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Tulane
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Tulsa
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UTEP
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13, Part 1 (USM at ECU, & more)
Tulane (3-8) at SMU (6-5),3:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: You in? SMU is bowl-eligible and likely headed to Hawaii for a June Jones reunion, but the school doesn’t want to get complacent or take anything for granted down the stretch. The Mustangs already blew their chance to put the West Division in a headlock, losing a 34-31 heartbreaker to Marshall last Saturday. Taking the division will now require a win and a Houston loss to Rice a few hours later. Since evening its record with a win over Army on Oct. 3, Tulane has skidded to six losses in the last seven games, ensuring a seventh consecutive losing season in New Orleans. With no end to the futility in sight, should head coach Bob Toledo be getting uneasy about his future with the school?
Why Tulane might win: The SMU defense is not only having problems with opposing defenses, but also keeping players healthy. The Mustangs, already 97th nationally in total defense, are depleted in the secondary, which will be an invitation for QB Ryan Griffin to test it liberally. Flanked out, he has a bona fide star receiver in Jeremy Williams, who’s caught 79 passes and will get more breathing room than he did against UCF last weekend. For a dose of balance, the Green Wave will turn to RB Andre Anderson, who’s better than his numbers indicate and dangerous when his blockers do their job.
Why SMU might win: Tulane packed it in weeks ago on defense, which is a troubling omen heading into this capper. The Green Wave yields more than 37 points a game and has been inept when the ball is in the air. The Mustangs will pepper it with a spate of passes and the occasional run from Shawnbrey McNeal, the Miami transfer who’s closing in on 1,000 yards. Freshman QB Kyle Padron continues to play well since supplanting Bo Levi Mitchell, throwing twice as many touchdowns as picks and employing the myriad skills of top receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Aldrick Robinson.
Who to watch: As teammates drop around him, LB Chase Kennemer remains the rock of the SMU defense. Neither the biggest nor the fastest, he’s one of those defenders who just has a knack for making plays and always being around the ball. He leads the team with 117 tackles and 10.5 tackles for loss, lending hope and leadership to a side of the ball that currently needs both.
What will happen: Different mindsets are sure to produce different results. While Tulane has one foot in the offseason, SMU is about to dip its toe into the bowl season for the first time in a quarter-century. The Mustangs will overcome occasional breakdowns in coverage, rolling up 500 yards on a Green Wave defense that’ll be step slow all afternoon.
CFN Prediction: SMU 35 … Tulane 19 ... Line: SMU -17
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight
Saga: New Moon 1 … 1.5
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Marshall (6-5) at UTEP (3-8),3:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Now that Marshall is bowl-eligible, will it actually bowl for the first time since 2004? The Herd can certainly improve its case with a win in El Paso this weekend. Considering the importance of the postseason to the program and head coach Mark Snyder, it can ill-afford to wave around a resume that includes a 6-6 mark. UTEP used to be unpredictable. Ahh, the good old days. Back in the first half of the season, the Miners were capable of rising up every other week and delivering an upset. These days, however, they’re a shell of that quirky team, losing four straight games to ensure yet another losing season under Mike Price.
Why Marshall might win: Defense and the running game were the cornerstones of the Herd all year, but it might want to consider opening things up a bit at the Sun Bowl. UTEP has yielded at least 30 point in seven of the last eight games, while getting shredded through the air. Yeah, the offense will lean heavily on RB Darius Marshall, the league’s No. 3 rusher, but it’ll also give more liberty to QB Brian Anderson, who’s played better in the last month. In Cody Slate, he has a gifted tight end capable of causing match up nightmares for the middling Miner linebackers.
Why UTEP might win: The team may be laboring, but the offense is not, averaging 35 points since the beginning of October. There are playmakers dotting the two-deep, beginning with explosive RB Donald Buckram, the nation’s No. 2 rusher. He’s been literally unstoppable over the last two months, climbing to 1,569 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns. His presence has made life a little easier for QB Trevor Vittatoe when he play-action passes and looks downfield for Kris Adams and Jeff Moturi.
Who to watch: The Marshall receivers are young and inexperienced, but, boy, does the future look bright. True freshmen Antavious Wilson and Aaron Dobson have become integral parts of the passing game in their first season on campus. Wilson leads all wideouts with 48 catches for 553 yards and two touchdowns. Dobson has come on late, making nine grabs for 254 yards and three scores in the last three games alone.
What will happen: It’s not as if UTEP won’t come to play on the final weekend, but Marshall has a thirst for a bowl game that needs to be quenched. Although Buckram will win the running back battle with Marshall, the Herd will win the war, wearing out the Miner defense in the second half and creating a couple of key turnovers for the difference in a close game.
CFN Prediction: Marshall 30 … UTEP 27 ... Line: UTEP -1
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight
Saga: New Moon 1 … 1
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Rice (2-9) at Houston (9-2),7:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Houston got the break it needed to get back in the West Division driver’s seat. Now all it needs to do is handle an old rival at home. After flubbing control of its own destiny, the Cougars watched SMU lose at Marshall on Saturday to create a dead heat atop the division. Since the Cougs defeated the Mustangs earlier in the year, they own the tiebreaker in the quest to move on to the championship game. Give credit to Rice and head coach David Bailiff. Even after opening 0-9, the Owls didn’t quit on the season, winning back-to-back games over Tulane and UTEP to climb out of the divisional basement. In an otherwise dreadful answer to 2008’s success, denying Houston a title would be a great way to begin the offseason.
Why Rice might win: It took all year, but the offense has finally located an identity. The Owls are in the midst of their best three-week run of the season, averaging 29 points and getting production from a variety of sources. Nick Fannuzi appears to be the future behind center at Rice, and RB Tyler Smith is coming off a 127-yard effort on the ground versus UTEP. The way Houston is playing defense, allowing 451 yards a game, don’t expect the Owls’ offensive success to suddenly be halted.
Why Houston might win: The Cougar offense vs. the Owl defense is, to put it delicately, a mismatch. While Houston is cranking out 574 yards a game behind Case Keenum and his plethora of playmakers, Rice is 119th nationally in pass efficiency defense. That’s what you call a recipe for school records to fall. The Owls simply don’t have enough talent on that side of the ball to put a spoke in the Houston wheel. The Cougars will get the ball in the hands of James Cleveland, Tyron Carrier, Patrick Edwards, and Charles Sims, turning them loose and getting them into space. If Chase Turner is forced to punt more than twice, it’ll qualify as an upset.
Who to watch: Keenum is having a brilliant season, and he still has another year of eligibility remaining. When all the numbers are tallied, he’ll have thrown for more than 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns, but will it be enough to get past Texas’ Colt McCoy and Florida’s Tim Tebow when individual honors are handed out? With a win, the junior will have two more games to make his case and beef up his statistical resume.
What will happen: While the Houston defense has had a habit of making games interesting, the high-powered offense will ensure a victory and a date next week with either Southern Miss or East Carolina. Keenum will do his usual thing, peppering a defenseless Rice team for more than 400 yards and four more touchdown passes.
CFN Prediction: Houston 48 … Rice 24 ... Line: Houston -28
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight
Saga: New Moon 1 … 1.5
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13, Part 1 (USM at ECU, & more)
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