2009 C-USA Fearless Predictions
Week 13 ... Nov. 28 Games
East
UAB |
UCF
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East
Carolina
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Marshall
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Memphis
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Southern
Miss
West
Houston |
Rice
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SMU
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Tulane
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Tulsa
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UTEP
Conference USA Fearless Predictions
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13, Part 2 (Marshall at UTEP, & more)
Game of the Week
Southern Miss (7-4) at East Carolina (7-4),1:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Who says there are no playoffs in the FBS? East Carolina and Southern Miss will be staging one in Greenville on Saturday afternoon. Sort of. The winner will take the East Division crown, while the loser must sit around for a few days to await its postseason fate. The Pirates are the defending Conference USA champs and winners of their last four league games, including a blowout of UAB a week ago. They’ll be looking to buck history this weekend, having lost seven straight in the series. When Larry Fedora arrived a little over a year ago, he vowed to bring championships back to Hattiesburg. Well, he’s just two wins away from fulfilling his promise. The Golden Eagles have played well since losing QB Austin Davis for the season, winning four of the last five games.
Why Southern Miss might win: The offense hasn’t skipped a beat since losing Davis, averaging 36 points over the last six games and still getting a desired level of balance. The staple remains the ground game, a two-pronged attack comprised of seniors Damion Fletcher and Tory Harrison. Both have rushed for eight touchdowns and have workhorse ability if needed. The surprise has been delivered by backup QB Martevious Young, who’s thrown 12 touchdown passes to one pick, while flashing great athleticism outside the pocket. The emergence of Young means DeAndre Brown remains a homerun threat at wide receiver.
Why East Carolina might win: The Pirates have the better defense, home field advantage, and a veteran squad that’s played in games of this magnitude before. It’ll be enough to get them over the top. The biggest edge will be in the trenches, where East Carolina is loaded with big bodies on defense and is No. 11 nationally in sacks allowed. The defensive line, in particular, is a seasoned and sizable group that’ll gum up the Southern Miss ground game with DE C.J. Wilson and tackles Linval Joseph and Jay Ross. Young has been terrific, but how will he react if forced to become the centerpiece of the Eagle offense?
Who to watch: The Pirate backfield, a mystery throughout the season, has started to mesh at a most opportune time. Over the last two games, QB Patrick Pinkney has ditched his inconsistent ways, tossing five touchdown passes without a pick. And Dominique Lindsay has evolved into the feature runner that the offense has desperately sought, going over 100 yards three times since midseason. Toss in the big play ability of WR Dwayne Harris and East Carolina finally has the ingredients of a decent offense.
What will happen: Saddle up, Conference USA fans. Two equal opponents playing for a divisional title promises to be entertaining. East Carolina has the edge in intangibles, having been down this road a year ago, which should not be overlooked. It’ll be the difference in a game that won’t be decided until the waning minutes. Pinkney, having found the confidence that eluded him in the early going, will have a seminal moment, leading the Pirates down the field for a game-winning score.
CFN Prediction: East Carolina 28 … Southern Miss 24 ... Line: East Carolina -3
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight
Saga: New Moon 1 … 3.5
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Memphis (2-9) at Tulsa (4-7),3:30 EST, Friday, November 27
Why to watch: Conference USA’s two biggest disappointments hook up on Friday afternoon to determine, among other things, who’s, the biggest letdown of 2009. Tulsa’s days as a league power are over for now, as the Hurricane failed to win a game in the last two months, dropping six in-a-row. After winning the West in back-to-back seasons, it’s had a difficult time adapting to also-ran status down the stretch. Memphis has known for a few weeks that it wouldn’t be bowling for just the second time since 2002. The Tigers have also known that this would be the final year on the sidelines for Tommy West, who’ll be coaching his final game with the program.
Why Memphis might win: It’s tough having much faith any longer in a Tulsa defense that’s given up at least 44 points in each of the last three games and is 114th nationally in pass defense. For all of their troubles this season, the Tigers still have a number of weapons capable of making big plays and keeping the chains moving. For starters, Curtis Steele is a legitimate next-level runner, who’s gone for more than 100 yards in five of the last six games. Over at wide receiver, rangy Duke Calhoun and Carlos Singleton have the size and ability to follow him into the NFL, a concern this week for an overmatched Hurricane secondary.
Why Tulsa might win: Sure, the Hurricane can’t stop anyone, but how is that any different than the Tigers, which are 110th or lower in pass, scoring, and total defense? Tulsa hasn’t completely forgotten how to move the ball around to its playmakers, such as receivers Damaris Johnson, Charles Clay, and Trae Johnson. Plus, QB G.J. Kinne has dual-threat tendencies and a full season behind center now in the rear view mirror. Memphis hasn’t kept an opponent under 31 points since Oct. 20, and isn’t likely to start now.
Who to watch: Johnson is coming off a monster game in the loss to Southern Miss last weekend. One of the league’s most versatile players, he caught 17 balls for 196 yards, rushed twice for 18 yards, and returned five kicks for 106 yards. An all-purpose dynamo whenever he has the ball in his hands, he’ll be the focal point of the offense again in the finale.
What will happen: Sure, Tulsa has the edge on Friday, but the way it’s played the second half of the year, no game is safe. Both schools will have success on offense, with Steele churning out 175 yards on the ground to keep Memphis competitive. The Tigers’ depleted secondary will eventually cave in, however, keeping West from exiting with one final victory.
CFN Prediction: Tulsa 35 … Memphis 24 ... Line: Tulsa -15
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight
Saga: New Moon 1 … 1
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UCF (7-4) at UAB (5-6),1:30 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Although UCF has been boxed out of the East Division title by Southern Miss and East Carolina, it still has plenty to play for in the finale. After flopping to 4-8 a year ago, the Knights have an opportunity to reverse their 2008 mark while improving their destination in the postseason. Plus, a win and a Pirate loss to the Golden Eagles would give UCF a share of the division crown without the berth in the championship game. After losing badly in Greenville a week ago, UAB has one final chance to become bowl-eligible, though even a sixth win won’t guarantee that coveted bowl invitation. Regardless of what December holds, the Blazers have made clear strides this fall after winning no more than four games the last three years.
Why UCF might win: Without any national attention, the Knights have cobbled together quite defense. Ranked in the top 10 nationally in sacks and run defense, they boast a front seven that would hold up well in the ACC or Big East. And whatever issues UCF has had in pass defense aren’t likely to be exploited by a Blazer team that’s 95th nationally through the air. With Bruce Miller, Jarvis Geathers, and Torrell Troup up front, and Cory Hogue, Derrick Hallman, and Lawrence Young, very few plays will get beyond the second line of defense.
Why UAB might win: Joe Webb, Joe Webb, Joe Webb. Without disrespecting the rest of the Blazers, the quarterback has been a one-man gang throughout his senior season, making plays where they don’t exist and carrying the team on his back. The nation’s No. 12 rusher, he’s also made great strides as a passer, throwing a dozen touchdown passes and just one pick over the last five games. He has a decent set of receivers at his disposal, including WR Frantrell Forrest and TE Jeffery Anderson. It is not easy solving this UCF defense. However, Webb is dynamic enough to be the exception.
Who to watch: The primary shortcoming in Birmingham has been the play of a defense allowing 457 yards and 32 points a game. UCF will attack that unit with a steady diet of Brynn Harvey, one of the conference’s premier running backs. In just his second season in Orlando, he’s already rushed for 1,466 yards, including back-to-back 100-yard games and three touchdowns in each of the last two wins.
What will happen: Defense and the running game. It’s a time-tested formula that’s working for UCF. And will continue to work at Legion Field on Saturday. UAB will need more than just Webb against a defense as stout as the Knights, and more stoppers on defense to prevent Harvey from going over the century mark for a third consecutive game.
CFN Prediction: UCF 31 … UAB 21... Line: UCF -3
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight
Saga: New Moon 1 … 1.5
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13, Part 2 (Marshall at UTEP, & more)