2009 M-West Fearless Predictions
Week 13 ... Nov. 28 Games
Air Force |
BYU
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Colorado State
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New Mexico
San
Diego State |
TCU
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UNLV
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Utah
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Wyoming
Mountain West Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
Utah (9-2) at BYU (9-2), 5:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: TCU will go to the BCS after disposing of New Mexico, so this rivalry battle between the Cougars and Utes will be for the No. 2 spot in the Mountain West and the league’s No. 1 bowl spot. BYU overcame the embarrassing home loss to TCU to win three straight to close out strong, but it will all go for naught if it can’t beat its archrival after losing last year 48-24 in a meltdown of a defeat. This has been a good BYU team, but it hasn’t been able to crack the ranks of the elite while its top conference foes, TCU and Utah, have been taking up BCS space over the last two seasons. This has to be a statement game of sorts; the veteran team has to pull off the key home win. On the other side, Utah overcame its ugly loss to TCU by blasting away on San Diego State in a near-perfect game. The only losses on the year came against the Horned Frogs and Oregon, two likely BCS teams, and while the Utes wanted to be playing on the big stage again, a 10-2 record with a road win over BYU would be a good year by any measure. This is always one of the nastiest underground rivalries of college football. It’s always intense, always entertaining, and always good for drama in one way or another.
Why Utah might win: The defense is good enough to give Max Hall and the BYU offense a nightmare of a time. With 15 interceptions on the year including five in the last three games, the Utah secondary is almost certain to come up with a few picks to make up for the yards it’ll allow. The BYU running game is good, but it’s not good enough to dominate the Utah defensive front if Hall starts screwing up. On the other side, BYU doesn’t generate enough consistent pressure into the backfield to stop the Utah running game before it gets started, and while it’s fine at getting to the quarterback, it’ll struggle against a stout Ute O line.
Why BYU might win: BYU at least has a win over Oklahoma on the résumé. Utah’s best win is over … Air Force? In overtime?! The second best win is over Wyoming. Yes, Utah is good and yes, it’s not just a good team that has ripped up a mediocre schedule, but it’s not like the team has been that impressive against bad competition. There was a seven point win over a bad Colorado State team, a ten-point win over a miserable San Jose State team, and only one win over a sure-thing bowl bound team. The run defense is good, but it’s not like it has faced a who’s who of ground attacks and could get punished by Harvey Unga and the Cougar power ground game. However, this game is all about …
Who to watch: Max Hall. While Hall might be the winningest quarterback in BYU history, but for all the positives and all the big performances, there have been almost as many head-scratching moments and mistakes. The 89 touchdowns and 11,039 yards are impressive, but the 40 interceptions are way, way too many for an elite quarterback of Hall’s caliber. And then there are the problems against Utah. Yeah, he was the starter for a win over the Utes in 2007, but he only completed 17-of-40 passes for 269 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. That was a dream performance compared to the disaster of last year with five interceptions, 205 yards, and a disaster of a meltdown that put an ugly cap on disappointing end to the regular season. But all that matters now is getting a win over the Utes, and if he can do that, it would be the biggest victory of his interesting career. It wouldn’t be like going to the BCS, but it would be a special way to close before going off to the bowl. To do that, he has to be careful with the ball, he can’t take too many chances, and he can’t let his fiery emotions get the best of him.
What will happen: Hall will have his day. Because BYU hasn’t gone to the BCS and Hall got flattened by TCU two years in a row, his career will be seen as good, and not elite. Beating Utah won’t make him a BYU legend, but it’ll make the Cougars 10-2 and Hall with a 2-1 record against the hated rival.
CFN Prediction: BYU 27 … Utah 23 ... Line: BYU -7
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 4.5
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New Mexico (1-10) at TCU (11-0),1:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: There’s just one more hurdle, a formality, separating TCU from its first-ever trip to a BCS bowl game. Sure, nothing gets written in ink until the first week of December, but at No. 4 in the latest BCS rankings, only an improbable loss on Saturday will keep the Horned Frogs out of a major January bowl game. Hey, as close as they are to the top rung, a spot in the national championship can’t be ruled out either. There are just two winless teams left in the country. New Mexico is proud to announce that it’s not one of the pair. The Lobos snapped a 14-game losing streak that dated back to last October, beating Colorado State, 29-27, and handing Mike Locksley the first win of his tenure in Albuquerque.
Why New Mexico might win: Last weekend was evidence that the Lobos have not quit on the season, despite the modest returns. The offense has showed signs of life and the defense can be feisty, creating turnovers and pocket pressure. Donovan Porterie is a veteran behind center, who won’t be unnerved by the crowd in Fort Worth, and is making the most of a young and improving receiving corps. True freshmen Demond Dennis and Kasey Carrier have provided a jolt to the running game, combining for 220 yards on just 22 carries in last Saturday’s maiden victory.
Why TCU might win: The Horned Frogs are the only team in America that ranks in the top 5 in scoring offense and defense, a testament to their lack of holes. There’s nothing they do poorly, which eliminates areas that can be exploited. The offense is diverse behind QB Andy Dalton and a spate of gifted runners, and the defense allows just 12 points a game. TCU’s enormous edge in speed will be evident on both sides of the field in the form of all-stars, like WR Jeremy Kerley, DE Jerry Hughes, and LB Daryl Washington. New Mexico simply won’t be able to match the Frogs’ depth or team speed.
Who to watch: Although veteran Joseph Turner gets the most carries among the TCU runners, freshmen Ed Wesley and Matthew Tucker have been outstanding complements, getting around 10 touches a game. Both are averaging more than six yards a carry and have shown a knack for getting in and out of holes in an instant. With three backs that have gone for more than 600 yards this year, the Frogs have the depth, talent, and fresh legs to wear opponents out in the final two quarters.
What will happen: Although it’s a bit anti-climatic considering the opponent, it’ll still be a special day on the TCU historical timeline. For the Horned Frogs, it’ll be a four-quarter coronation and a chance to celebrate one of the greatest seasons in school history. They’ll build an early lead before coasting in the second half, allowing the starters to get Amon G. Carter curtain calls to the delight of the home crowd.
CFN Prediction: TCU 48 … New Mexico 9 ... Line: TCU -42
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight
Saga: New Moon 1) … 1.5
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Wyoming (5-6) at Colorado State (3-8), 2:00 EST, Friday, November 27
Why to watch: Mystifying. Stunning. Unexplainable. That’s been Wyoming’s first year under head coach Dave Christensen, who has the Cowboys one win away from a bowl game despite struggling mightily to put points on the board, and it also describes the complete and utter disaster that has been Colorado State’s last two months. After starting out 3-0 with wins over Colorado and Nevada, the Rams have gone into the tank with eight straight losses including inexplicable head-scratchers against San Diego State, UNLV, and last week, to a New Mexico team that’s playing as poorly as any team in America. While a home win over the Cowboys wouldn’t erase the losses, it would be a big plus going into an offseason that’s certain to be full of changes and butt-kickings. It’s a different story for UW, who has done enough to beat the miserable teams on the slate, there isn’t a win over a bowl bound team, to get into a position to close out with a 13th game and all the extra practice time that comes with it. This isn’t a good team, but it’s good against the bad. Colorado State qualifies, and UW has to take advantage.
Why Wyoming might win: So why and how have the wheels come off the Colorado State train? The offense has sputtered when it has come time to score. Yards haven’t been an issue, but converting them into points has been a big problem. The defense can’t come up with a timely stop, there’s little pressure into the backfield, and the pass defense has been a disaster. Overall, though, the biggest problem is how the Rams play down to the competition. They play like they’re waiting for the hammer to fall, and then it does. A few early scores from the Cowboys should send CSU into the tank.
Why Colorado State might win: You can’t win if you don’t score. Wyoming scored 29 points or more in each of the five wins, and stunningly, scored a grand total of 30 points in the six losses. That’s not even counting the help coming from the special teams and the defense; the Wyoming offense simply doesn’t work against decent defenses. Colorado State’s defense isn’t good and it hasn’t held anyone in check all season long, but it’s not awful against the run and the Cowboys don’t have a passing game to do much to light up the scoreboard. Colorado State, score 31 points and you will win.
Who to watch: The Wyoming offense is going to revolve around Austyn Carta-Samuels for the next three years, and this is a game that can show he can take the team to a win in a big situation. This is it; bowl game or bust, and it’s all on his shoulders to get the team there. He has only thrown seven touchdown passes with year with three coming against UNLV and three against New Mexico. His other scoring pass came against San Diego State, while in the six losses he failed to throw for more than 125 yards in any of them. Good on the move, he’s going to have to be a baller against the Rams mixing up the run with throws out of the pocket. With little running game to fall back on, if he doesn’t throw for 200 yards or more, Wyoming can’t win.
What will happen: Wyoming will do just enough of the little things right, like punting, the return game, and penalties, to get the tough win and get to a bowl game. Christensen won’t earn Coach of the Year honors, but he should finish No. 2 behind TCU’s Gary Patterson.
CFN Prediction: Wyoming 30 … Colorado State 24 ... Line: Colorado State -3
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2
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San Diego State (4-7) at UNLV (4-7) , 9:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Both programs might be 4-7, but they’re on opposite ends of the spectrum and going in different directions. San Diego State collapsed over the last three games when all it needed was one win to stay alive for a bowl bid, but to be fair, two of the losses came to TCU and Utah. The other loss was a total choke job to Wyoming, and the team never recovered. However, there are signs of life under head man Brady Hoke with a good passing game and a little bit of defense against the mediocre teams. UNLV, however, is starting from scratch as the Mike Sanford era comes to a close. The offense was never consistent under Sanford’s tenure, and the wins simply never came. With six losses in the last eight games, but with all of those coming against bowl bound teams (if Wyoming beats Colorado State), it was time to start anew. 5-7 isn’t going to make anyone too happy around the Vegas program, but it would put the Rebels above the dregs of the league in the final standings.
Why San Diego State might win: The Rebel defense has been ripped to shreds far too often. San Diego State doesn’t have an offense like Utah’s or TCU’s, but everyone has been able to move the ball without much of a problem thanks to a bad Rebel defensive front that struggles way too much to get into the backfield and does next to nothing against the run. If the Aztecs can get into a passing groove early, UNLV will be in big trouble. Without WR Ryan Wolfe, the Rebels don’t have much in the way of firepower to keep up if Ryan Lindley and the Aztecs get hot early.
Why UNLV might win: San Diego State will give UNLV plenty of opportunities to score. The Aztec defense doesn’t take the ball away with just one forced turnover in the last four games, and just one forced fumble in the last six. UNLV isn’t exactly stingy when it comes to ball security, but if it’s +2 in the final turnover margin, that might be enough to get the win. UNLV’s offense might not be hitting on all cylinders, but at home in the season finale, it should have just enough balance to make the Aztecs scramble. SDSU won’t get in the Rebel backfield.
Who to watch: UNLV’s season was already bad, and it’s going to end on an even bigger down note without Wolfe, who broke his foot in practice. He was the Mountain West leader in catches, making 74 grabs for 760 yards and four touchdowns, and he was one of the program’s few bright spots over the last four years making 283 catches for 3,495 yards and 15 touchdowns. Sophomore Phillip Payne will have to step up into the No. 1 receiving role, and while he caught ten passes for 112 yards against Nevada, he hasn’t proven he can be a playmaker to build a passing game around. This is his showcase game for next year.
What will happen: San Diego State will throw for over 300 yards, but UNLV will get decent balance, QB Omar Clayton will come up with a solid game, even without Wolfe, and the Rebels will send out Sanford on a positive note.
CFN Prediction: UNLV 34 … San Diego State 26 ... Line: UNLV -4
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 1.5
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