2009 WAC Fearless Predictions
Week 13 ... Nov. 28 Games
Boise State |
Fresno State |
Hawaii
|
Idaho
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Louisiana Tech
Nevada |
New Mexico St |
San Jose
State |
Utah State
WAC Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
Nevada (8-3) at Boise State (11-0), 10:00 EST, Friday, November 27, ESPN2
Why to watch: It’s been assumed that Boise State is going to win the WAC, go 12-0, and be in a fight for an at-large BCS spot, but Nevada might have other ideas. Nevada provides the same problem for Boise State that Boise State provides for the other big name programs. The Wolf Pack is more than good enough to win this game, it’s going to be a battle for the Broncos to pull it off, but on a national scale, it’s still just Nevada. Basically, Boise State isn’t going to get a whole bunch of credit for winning, and it could certainly end up losing it. The Broncos really are good, and if they win, they deserve a spot in the BCS without question. Will they get it? That depends on possible upsets, but they’ve been unbelievable at home, the offense has been unstoppable over the last several weeks, leading the nation in scoring, and despite a seven-point win over Tulsa and a ten-point victory over Louisiana Tech, they haven’t been remotely close to being challenged. And then there’s Nevada, who hasn’t beaten anyone with a pulse, unless you count Fresno State, but has gone on an epic run over the last eight games. The running game is operating at a historic level with three players (QB Colin Kaepernick and RBs Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott) each running for over 1,000 yards (the first time in NCAA history a team has had three 1,000-yard rushers) while the defense has kept points off the board. Unbeaten in conference play, the Wolf Pack has the talent to be the WAC champion.
Why Nevada might win: The running game really is that good. Boise State’s run defense is athletic, tough, and productive, but the Wolf Pack ground game is humming with perfect precision. While it’s not going to be as easy to run through Boise on the blue turf as it was tearing off 574 rushing yards against New Mexico State and 517 yards against San Jose State, it’s going to be impossible for the Broncos to be able to properly prepare for the Pistol offense with a short week. Yeah, that extra day might matter. There isn’t nearly enough time to simulate what Nevada does, and even though BSU might have its moments, it’s being asked to stop an attack that has rushed for over 300 yards three times, over 400 yards two times, and over 500 yards three times, with 47 rushing scores. Nevada will get its yards, but …
Why Boise State might win: … it’s uh-oh time against the Boise State passing game. Nevada has been able to dominate with the ground game to such an unprecedented degree that opponents haven’t been able to get into a groove with their respective offenses. Even so, Idaho, Hawaii, and Fresno State were all able to pick apart a Nevada secondary that hasn’t stopped anyone cold (outside of New Mexico State’s pathetic attack) in the last few years. Boise State has the third most efficient passing game in America, while Nevada has the seventh least efficient pass defense. Nevada will score, but Boise State will be there step for step.
Who to watch: Two years ago, redshirt freshman Colin Kaepernick announced his arrival on the WAC scene with a 177 rushing yards and two touchdowns and 243 passing yards and three scores in the 49-41 shootout loss to Boise State. In last year’s 41-34 loss, Kaepernick struggled with his passing, completing 19-of-50 for 241 yards and a score, but he ran for 70 yards. This year he has taken his game to a whole other level running for 1,129 yards and 16 scores while throwing for 16 touchdowns with just five interceptions. Most importantly during this current run of success, he has thrown just one interception in his last nine games. Junior RB Vai Taua has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last seven games and has gone over the 1,000-yard mark for the second year in a row, and Luke Lippincott has come off a knee injury that cost him all of last year to rush for 1,028 yards and nine scores after running for 1,420 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2007.
What will happen: It’ll be yet another fun and wild Boise State/Nevada game. The Pack will get over 300 rushing yards, but it’ll be Kaepernick’s passing that keeps this close. While all the focus will be on the Nevada offense, it’ll be Kellen Moore who steals the show with a 400-yard game as Boise State wins the WAC title … again.
CFN Prediction: Boise State 48 … Nevada 34 ... Line: Boise State -11
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 5
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Utah State (3-8) at Idaho (7-4), 5:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Idaho is 7-4 and almost assured of going to a bowl game, but an extra win would be nice after losing three of their last four games. The Vandals beat the bad teams in the WAC, but lost to the three strongest teams (Nevada, Fresno State and Boise State). Utah State qualifies as a bad WAC team because of its 3-8 record, but it’s dangerous. The running game has speed and talent, and the offense ranks 24th in the nation, but the defense gives up points and yards in bunches. In the first year under Gary Andersen, the Aggies have played well and have been more competitive. A win over the Vandals, in what amounts to USU’s bowl game, would be a big step going into year two,
Why Utah State might win: Idaho’s defensive front doesn’t get into the backfield and it doesn’t generate pressure on the quarterback. While the D has gotten away with it against most teams, it has been gouged by anyone who can run effectively. Utah State can run effectively. The 1-2 combination of QB Diondre Borel and RB Robert Turbin should be enough to control the game and keep the Vandal offense off the field. In a game like this, mistakes will matter. Utah State will get a few easy chances against an Idaho offense that turned it over seven times against Boise State last week. Utah State is second in the WAC in turnover margin.
Why Idaho might win: Utah State doesn’t generate any pass rush from a line that’s struggling to stop the run as well as get into the backfield. Idaho’s passing game is among the most efficient and effective in the nation, and while it has had problems against good secondaries, Utah State’s is having problems. Nathan Enderle is returning at quarterback after missing the last few weeks with a rotator cuff injury and he should light up the Aggies without a problem. However, Idaho should be able to run, too. If Hawaii could run for 360 rushing yards and three scores, then the Vandals should be able to crank out at least 200 yards without working hard.
Who to watch: Who is Mike Iupati and why is he an Outland finalist? All week, Outland voters scrambled to figure it is who they just voted for on hearsay and a high draft ranking. The Vandal guard is a dominant run blocker with the skills and athleticism to move to tackle at the next level. Has he been Outland worthy this year? Not really, but he’s one of the WAC’s best blockers and he should steamroll his way through a soft Aggie defensive front.
What will happen: With Enderle back at the helm, the Idaho offense will be effective and back in gear just enough to overcome a big day from the Utah State ground attack.
CFN Prediction: Idaho 37 … Utah State 27 ... Line: Idaho -3
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2
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New Mexico State (3-8) at San Jose State (1-9),8:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Avoiding the WAC cellar will be at stake when New Mexico State travels to Silicon Valley this weekend. The Aggies have essentially gone through a feeling-out process in DeWayne Walker’s debut season in Las Cruces, scoring building-block victories in the early going, yet fading to five consecutive losses down the stretch. With a trip to Boise up next, this is their last realistic shot to snap the losing streak. For Dick Tomey, this will be his final home game as the San Jose State head coach. The veteran of many seasons and many different stops announced his retirement earlier in the month, going out on one of the low points of his career. The Spartans, losers of six in-a-row, have yet to defeat a team from the FBS.
Why New Mexico State might win: The Aggies might want to keep things simple on Saturday, chipping away at a San Jose State run defense allowing 270 yards a game. The Spartans haven’t slowed down anyone that committed to the run, and it’s not as if New Mexico State has any faith in its aerial attack. It’ll put its fate in the hands of top backs Seth Smith and Tonny Glynn, who’ve both flashed an ability to be the feature guy. If they can soften up the Spartans’ interior and control the clock, the upset will be there for the taking.
Why San Jose State might win: Whatever hope and potential that existed in the New Mexico State defense is now a distant memory. The Aggies have been gashed for more than 40 points a game over the last month, while falling completely apart in run defense. This is the best chance all year for the Spartans to flex their offensive muscles, with help from RB Lamon Muldrow, QB Kyle Reed, and WR Kevin Jurovich. After being caged up throughout the year, San Jose State’s best playmakers will delight in an opportunity to make plays and not absorb first contact at the line of scrimmage.
Who to watch: Reed got benched in September in favor of Jordan La Secla, but La Secla got pulled in favor of Reed a week ago. Now what? Tomey has yet to decide, but figure on both getting a chance to move the gimpy San Jose State offense on Saturday. Although Reed has been a disappointment since transferring from Cal a couple of years ago, he brings more athleticism to the position.
What will happen: What do you get when the nation’s 116th-ranked offense entertains the nation’s 120th-ranked offense? Poor attendance. In what might be the least appealing conference game of 2009, San Jose State will gut out a victory for Tomey, outlasting New Mexico State in a sloppy affair.
CFN Prediction: San Jose State 19 … New Mexico State 16 ... Line: San Jose State -10
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight
Saga: New Moon 1) … 1
Navy (8-3) at Hawaii (5-6), 10:30 EST, Saturday, November 28, ESPNU
Why to watch: It’s the final game of the weekend and it could be among the most entertaining. It’s the ultimate contrast in styles with Hawaii’s passing game looking to bomb away while Navy and its tremendous ground attack will try to keep the Warriors off the field. Hawaii needs this win to keep bowl hopes alive, needing to win this week and beat Wisconsin next week, but no matter what happens, this has been a successful season. Faced with off-the-field controversy and a slew of injuries on the field, Hawaii has been able to overcome everything, and a six-game losing streak, to beat the dregs of the WAC (Utah State, San Jose State, and New Mexico State) to turn things around. While they might not be good enough to win their final two games, the Warriors could end up with a home split if everything is working. Navy knows where it’s going having already accepted a bid to play in the Texas Bowl, but it’s shooting for a ten-win regular season with Army coming up to finish things up in a few weeks. With two more wins and a bowl win, Navy will win 11 games for the first time in school history.
Why Navy might win: It’s always simple when it comes to playing Navy: can you stop the run? Hawaii can’t. These aren’t the Warriors of previous years with a stout run defense that was overshadowed by the high-octane offense; this defense has been consistently mediocre. While it did a decent job against Nevada, at least better than almost anyone else has over the last two months, Louisiana Tech and Fresno State were able to run without a problem. Navy’s running game has been tremendous over the second half of the season, after a bit of a rocky start, and it shouldn’t have problems cranking out at least 250 yards. The Hawaii linebackers are athletic, but they won’t be to handle Navy’s attack inside or out.
Why Hawaii might win: It’s always simple when it comes to playing Hawaii: can you stop the pass? Navy’s overall pass defense numbers are fine, but it has struggled against the teams that can throw, like Notre Dame, SMU, and Pitt. With no pass rush whatsoever, except when it’s trying to get to Jimmy Clausen in the end zone, Navy isn’t going to apply the pressure needed to disrupt the good, but not great Hawaii passing attack. Unlike past years, Hawaii has a bit of a running game to rely on, too. No, it’s not going to try to pound the ball against a good Navy run defense, but the balance might be there more than the Midshipmen might like.
Who to watch: The Hawaii passing game all comes down to the ribs of Bryant Moniz. The starter if he’s healthy, he hasn’t been able to practice much and wasn’t able to go last week. Shane Austin was fine, throwing for 299 yards against San Jose State, but he didn’t throw any touchdown passes. Moniz will try to give it a go, but Austin will almost certainly see a little bit of time. Navy’s quarterback situation is more than secure; it’s thriving. Ricky Dobbs is being talked about as the best to ever run the option in Annapolis, and it has showed over the last two weeks running for 102 yards and a score against Notre Dame and 100 yards and five scores against Delaware. He has set the record for the most rushing touchdowns in a season by a quarterback with two games still to play.
What will happen: The running game will outplay the passing game, but it’ll be tight for a full sixty minutes. The Midshipmen will hold on to the ball for most of the fourth quarter to take control of the game.
CFN Prediction: Navy 27 … Hawaii 24 ... Line: Navy -8
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2.5
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