2009 Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
Week 13 ... Nov. 28 Games
Arkansas State |
Florida Atlantic
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Florida International
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MTSU
North Texas
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Troy
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UL Lafayette
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UL Monroe |
Western Kentucky
Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
Troy (8-3) at Louisiana-Lafayette (6-5), 7:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Troy has already won at least a share of the Sun Belt title, and has the tie-breaker over Middle Tennessee, and now it can finish the job and win it outright. Winners of eight of their last nine, with the loss coming at Arkansas a few weeks ago, the Trojans have dominated in their eight wins with the offense steamrolling through the Sun Belt. Louisiana-Lafayette became bowl eligible last week with the 21-17 win over rival ULM, and while a 13th game might be a bit too much to hope for, there aren’t going to be enough slots, to beat Troy and get to seven wins would be a tremendous step forward for a team in rebuilding mode.
Why Troy might win: ULL doesn’t score. For all the good things the Ragin’ Cajuns have done this year, and despite being able to pull out wins when things aren’t always going well, the offense has died failing to score more than 21 points in and of the last four games. The pass rush is non-existent, and if there isn’t any pressure on Levi Brown, the Troy passing yards will come in bunches. ULL will move the ball, but it won’t finish off drives with points.
Why Louisiana might win: The Troy defense isn’t good. While ULL doesn’t have much firepower, the Troy D will give up yards on the ground and can get torched through the air. Most of the passing yards allowed have come from teams so desperately behind that they’re trying to catch up, but the chances will be there for the Ragin’ Cajuns to strike some sort of offensive balance and keep the game close. The key will be to make the most of every chance; ULL is great in turnover margin.
Who to watch: Chris Masson is the ULL quarterback, but he gives way to Brad McGuire when more mobility is needed. It worked well in the win over ULM with McGuire scoring on two short runs, and he’ll get more work to try to throw a wrinkle into the offensive mix. Masson has had a nice season and is looking to this game as a stepping stone after throwing for 200 yards or more in each of the last six games. Can he keep up with the Troy passing game? He has to or else this will be a blowout.
What will happen: Troy’s offensive firepower will be too much for ULL to overcome. The Ragin’ Cajuns simply don’t score.
CFN Prediction: Troy 37 … Louisiana-Lafayette 17 ... Line: Troy -10
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2.5
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North Texas (2-9) at Arkansas State (2-8) , 3:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: It’s the battle of two mega-flops. Arkansas State was supposed to be good, but with a rough schedule. As it turned out, the Red Wolves have been simply bad with the only win over an FBS team coming against FIU over a month ago. North Texas is 2-9 and closing out another rocky season, but this year’s bad campaign was different from previous ones. The last few Mean Green teams got blown out game after game and weren’t even close, but this year’s squad is finding new ways week after week to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Last week it was a blocked field goal leading to a game-winning touchdown for Army. ASU still gets a win against Western Kentucky as a gift to close out its season, but for UNT, this is it and it has to come up with a strong performance to get just its second win since the season opener on September 3rd at Ball State.
Why North Texas might win: UNT has been painfully, unfairly close to having a nice year. Ohio, Louisiana-Lafayette, Florida Atlantic, FIU, and Army were all decided by seven points or fewer and each could’ve gone either way. North Texas has a fun offense that doesn’t always connect, but it leads the Sun Belt in rushing and can tear off yards in chunks when it’s working well. Defensively, UNT shouldn’t have too much of a problem against an ASU offense that has gotten more than 20 points just once in the last six games.
Why Arkansas State might win: The ASU run defense has been solid and the scoring D leads the Sun Belt. FAU and Middle Tennessee were able to crank out points and yards in chunks over the last two weeks, but neither team ran wild. The ASU offense might be struggling, and the line isn’t doing much in pass protection, but North Texas doesn’t have a pass rush to worry about. If field position turns out to be a big deal, ASU has a big advantage against a miserable North Texas punting game.
Who to watch: The Mean Green has the makings of an impressive backfield for the next few years with QB Riley Dodge and RB Lance Dunbar. Dunbar, a lightning-quick sophomore, has rushed for 1,252 yards on the year with 16 touchdowns, tearing off 100 yards or more in seven of his last eight games. He has also become a tremendous receiver out of the backfield and will be used in a variety of ways to see if he can be a workhorse. This is the last game of the year, so expect 30 touches coming in a variety of ways.
What will happen: North Texas is playing better, but it’s going to invent another way to lose in soul-crushing fashion. ASU’s defense will come up with a good game.
CFN Prediction: Arkansas State 24 … North Texas 17 ... Line: Arkansas State -9
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 1
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Western Kentucky (0-10) at Florida Atlantic (3-7), 4:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Western Kentucky’s first season in the FBS level has been a total disaster, losing all ten games as part of an 18-game losing streak, canning its coach, and not being closer than a seven points in any game until last week’s 21-18 loss to ULM. There are two more chances to make something positive happen with this week’s game against a disappointing FAU before finishing up against a struggling Arkansas State. The Owls were supposed to be in the mix for the Sun Belt title but haven’t been able to stop anyone defensively and haven’t gotten any offensive consistency. However, the last two games are winnable, with FIU up next week, and while 2009 might have been a dud, 5-7 isn’t so bad.
Why Western Kentucky might win: The Owl defense has been a disaster. There have been a few decent moments here and there to keep offenses like Middle Tennessee’s and Arkansas State’s in check, but for the most part, FAU hasn’t stopped anyone allowing 225 rushing yards per game and with the nation’s 113th ranked pass efficiency defense. WKU doesn’t have an offense, but if was ever going to break the mold and get hot, this would be the week.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: WKU’s defense is worst. The Hilltoppers did a nice job last week against ULM, but for the most part they haven’t been close. Last in the nation in pass efficiency D, second-to-last in total defense, and dead last in scoring D, there hasn’t been much to count on so far. For all of FAU’s problems, one of them hasn’t been throwing the ball. Rusty Smith was having a good, but not great season before getting hurt, and then …
Who to watch: Jeff Van Camp stepped in and was just fine. He’s a smart, athletic, 6-5, 210-pound bomber who can move a little bit. He has thrown seven touchdown passes and two interceptions in the last three games with three scoring passes against UAB and three against Arkansas State, and now he’s auditioning to be a bigger part of next year’s team. With the raw tools, all he needs is more time.
What will happen: In the final home game of the year, the Owls will have few problems with the struggling Hilltoppers. The WKU D won’t be able to slow down Van Camp and the FAU passing game.
CFN Prediction: Florida Atlantic 44 … Western Kentucky 20 ... Line: Florida Atlantic -14.5
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 1
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Middle Tennessee (8-3) at ULM (6-5), 4:30 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: If Troy loses its game at Louisiana-Lafayette and Middle Tennessee beats ULM, the Blue Raiders will tie for the Sun Belt title. Troy would get the New Orleans Bowl slot and would win the tie-breaker, but it would still be a strong way to close out a great season. QB Dwight Dasher and the Blue Raiders have won five straight and still have a shot at a ten-win season with an almost certain bowl game to follow no matter what. ULM was in the mix for the Sun Belt title but lost at Troy a month ago and lost last week at Louisiana-Lafayette. The offense has fallen flat while the defense has sputtered a bit. Bowl eligible, the only real shot of getting a 13th game will be to get the home win.
Why MTSU might win: Dasher might be an impressive runner, but he has been tremendous at making the passing game go. The Blue Raiders are averaging 249 yards per game through the air, while the defense continues to be tremendous at getting into the backfield. MTSU is seventh in the nation in sacks averaging over three per game and shouldn’t have too many problems disrupting the ULM passing game. The Warhawk offensive line has been great all year long at not allowing sacks, but it has struggled lately.
Why ULM might win: The ULM defense is strong enough to get into the MTSU backfield and stop Dasher before he can get going. The run defense has been one of the best in the Sun Belt this year and it’s been aggressive enough and tough enough to keep the Blue Raiders in check. ULM’s issues over the last few weeks have been on offense; the D has been more than fine. The secondary is a problem when it comes to giving up yards, but it comes up with its share of big plays and doesn’t get bombed on.
Who to watch: Trey Revell has to be better. The ULM junior quarterback has gotten worse at times instead of better this late in the season after missing a few games a month ago. He has run relatively well, scoring five times on the year with a touchdown in each of the last two games, but he has thrown four picks in two straight games giving WKU a shot at the upset and causing ULM to lose to Louisiana-Lafayette. He doesn’t have to be better than Dasher, but he can’t make any mistakes.
What will happen: MTSU will cement itself as the second best team in the Sun Belt as Dasher runs for 300 and runs enough to keep the ULM defense on its heels.
CFN Prediction: Middle Tennessee 27 … ULM 13 ... Line: MTSU -4
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2
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