2009 BCS Analysis
Week 7 ... Nov. 29
http://cfn.scout.com/2/924458.html -
2009
CFN Rankings
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2009
Harris Poll
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2009 Coaches' Poll
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2009
BCS Rankings
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BCS Breakdowns
Week 1
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3
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5
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6
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The Top
25
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Expanded BCS Rankings
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. Ohio State
9. Iowa
10. Georgia Tech
11. Penn State
12. Virginia Tech
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Pitt
16. Oregon State
17. Miami
18. USC
19. California
20. Oklahoma St
21. Houston
22. Nebraska
23. West Virginia
24. Stanford
25. Utah |
If Cincinnati beats Pitt and Texas beats Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship, it's all but certain that the ten BCS teams will be Florida, Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Clemson/Georgia Tech winner, Oregon State/Oregon winner, Cincinnati/Pitt winner, TCU, Iowa, and Boise State.
Penn State (11) might be selected over Iowa (9), but it's
doubtful. If Nebraska upsets Texas, then Boise State is out.
With Oklahoma State coming up with a disastrous clunker in a
loss to Oklahoma, Boise State becomes all but cemented as an
at-large team to join TCU in the BCS. Also helping the Broncos'
cause was Georgia Tech's loss to Georgia, eliminating any chance
of the Yellow Jackets getting in as an at-large team if they
lose to Clemson in the ACC Championship.
TCU at No. 4 will get the automatic bid as the highest ranked
non-BCS league champion, but Cincinnati is lurking in the
national title discussion. If Texas loses to Nebraska, then
things get interesting. Ranked No. 2 by the humans, the
Longhorns can sink like a stone with a loss, and while TCU is
ranked ahead of Cincinnati, the margin is thin enough that it
could change quickly if the Bearcats win impressively over Pitt.
But there's enough of a gap in the human polls between
Cincinnati and TCU that it would have to be a big, convincing
victory to get up to No. 4.
Can Cincinnati or TCU get up into the top two? If would take a
Texas loss to Nebraska to start the discussion, but there's a
chance that it might not be enough. If the Longhorns lose, TCU and Cincinnati might need Alabama to lose, too.
Florida's computer and human scores are so high that the Gators
still might play for the national title even if they lose to
Alabama. There's a ten-mile wide gap between Florida and TCU,
and it might be insurmountable considering the computers aren't
going to be too upset with a Gator loss to the No. 2 team. And
then there's the more interesting question.
Could Florida still
play for the national title if it loses to Alabama, no matter what
Texas does?
At the moment, Texas is ranked No. 2 by the humans and aren't
likely to be ranked No. 1 no matter how big the win over
Nebraska. If Florida beats Alabama, then it's a done deal with
the Gators playing the Longhorns in the BCS Championship. But if
Alabama wins the SEC Championship game it'll almost certainly go
from No. 3 to No. 1 in both human polls, Texas will stay at No.
2, and Florida, assuming it's a close loss to the Tide, would
likely fall no further than No. 3. The computers would be the X
factor, but the final results might turn out to be very, very,
very close. The Gators, with a loss, might still play for
the national title if they fall no further than third in the
human polls; they might have to be dropped to No. 4 unless the
computers give Texas a big boost, and that likely won't happen
unless Cincinnati loses to Pitt. In other words, this might not
be as cut and dry as you think, and if you're a Texas fan, get
the Florida pom-poms out just to make sure.
Other interesting notes from the Week Seven rankings …
- The Big Ten has three teams (Ohio State at 8, Iowa at 9, and Penn State at
11) in the top 11.
- Why isn't Texas getting any respect from the computers? The
No. 2 team in the Big 12 is Oklahoma State at 20th. Nebraska is
22nd, while Texas Tech is 34th, Missouri is 37th and Oklahoma
38th behind teams like Central Michigan, Arizona, and
Northwestern.
- The ACC doesn't have much in the way of national respect, but
it has plenty of teams high in the BCS rankings with Georgia
Tech 10th, Virginia Tech 12th, Miami 17th, and Clemson 27th.
The Big Winners: Boise State (with Oklahoma State
losing),
Florida (with score going from 0.9664 to 0.9868), Iowa (11th to
9th)
The Big Losers: Oklahoma State (12th to 20th),
Georgia Tech (7th to
10th), Pitt (9th to 15th)
1. Florida Score: 0.9868
After obliterating Florida State, Florida moved
up from being No. 1 overall to being even more firmly entrenched
with three of the six computers agreeing with the humans.
There's a huge gap between the Gators and No. 2 Alabama, and
there's a giant lead over No. 3 Texas. Could Florida lose to
Alabama and still play for the national title? It might be close
according to the formula, but realistically, no.
Predicted Wins: Alabama (SEC Championship)
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 13-0
Predicted Bowl: BCS Championship
Toughest Remaining Tests: Alabama (SEC Championship)
2. Alabama Score:
0.9513
While things get very interesting if Florida
loses a close game, it's an easy equation for Alabama. A win in
the SEC Championship will boost the Tide to No. 1 in the BCS,
while a loss would almost certainly mean a trip to the Sugar
Bowl. The computers have the Tide tied with the Gators for No.
1, but the humans are skeptical with a No. 3 ranking.
Predicted Wins: None
Predicted Losses: Florida (SEC Championship)
Predicted Final Record: 12-1
Predicted Bowl: Sugar
Toughest Remaining Tests: Florida (SEC Championship)
3. Texas Score: 0.9263
The computers are killing the Longhorns. The No. 4 ranking by the
computers offset the No. 2 ranking from the humans, and
Cincinnati being at No. 3 in the computer polls is a killer.
Texas has to hope for a Florida win over Alabama to be assured
of a trip to the BCS Championship. The Longhorns can't
count on the humans to rank Florida fourth, and they certainly
can't count on the computers to help out considering the joke of
a non-conference schedule and a bad Big 12 not helping the
cause.
Predicted Wins: Nebraska (Big 12 Championship)
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 13-0
Predicted Bowl: BCS Championship
Toughest Remaining Tests: Nebraska
4. TCU Score: 0.8689
It can still happen. If Cincinnati loses at Pitt, if Texas loses
to Nebraska, and if Florida blasts Alabama, TCU will end up
playing for the national title. But if Alabama beats Florida, it
might be tough. The computers like Cincinnati better, and that's
not going to change if the Bearcats beat Pitt. No matter what
happens, TCU is in the BCS. The program deserves it.
Season Finished: 12-0
Predicted Bowl: Sugar
5. Cincinnati Score: 0.8547
If Cincinnati beats Pitt, it's in the BCS as the Big East
champion. But would a one-loss Bearcat team get in over Iowa or
Boise State? That might be a tough sell considering the lack of
respect the league gets. Can the Bearcats get into the national
championship? The math might not work out without everything to
go perfectly, but there's a good chance of moving ahead of TCU
with a win over Pitt. The margin between the Bearcats and the
Horned Frogs are thin.
Predicted Wins: None
Predicted Losses: at Pitt
Predicted Final Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Gator
Toughest Remaining Tests: at Pitt
6.
Boise State Score: 0.8096
The Broncos got a huge break with the Oklahoma State loss to
Oklahoma, and now they need everything to go to form. If
Nebraska beats Texas, they're out, and it could be a close call
if Pitt beats Cincinnati. But now, there's enough respect to get
them in even though TCU will take the automatic non-BCS league
slot. If Cincinnati loses, there's a chance Boise could move up
to No. 5.
Predicted Wins: New Mexico State
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 12-0
Predicted Bowl: Fiesta
Toughest Remaining Tests: None
7. Oregon Score: 0.7343
As high up as Oregon might be, it's not going to get an at-large
spot if it loses to Oregon State. On an island at No. 7, there's
almost no chance of moving up too much higher, but it doesn't
matter. Beat Oregon State, go to the Rose Bowl.
Predicted Wins: Oregon State
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 10-2
Predicted Bowl: Rose
Toughest Remaining Tests: Oregon State
8. Ohio State Score: 0.6882
Ohio State is in the Rose Bowl, and now it's waiting to see if
it plays Oregon or Oregon State. The humans like the Buckeyes
(No. 7) more than the computers (No. 11) do.
Season Finished: 10-2
Predicted Bowl: Rose
9. Iowa Score: 0.6028
The BCSers might think about taking Penn State as the Big Ten's
second team in the big money games, but the Iowa fan base would
be too much to overlook. Don't assume the Fiesta Bowl will
automatically want TCU or an unbeaten Cincinnati. With the Sugar
almost certain to take the SEC Championship loser first, the
Fiesta, if it loses Texas to the BCS Championship, will be happy
to be invaded by Iowans.
Season Finished: 10-2
Predicted Bowl: Fiesta
10. Georgia Tech Score: 0.5803
Now there's no margin for error. If Tech had beaten Georgia, it
had a shot for an at-large BCS spot with a loss to Clemson. Now,
it's ACC title or bust. Still hanging around the top ten thanks
to the computers, it doesn't matter. All the Yellow Jackets care
about is beating the Tigers.
Predicted Wins: Clemson (ACC Championship)
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 11-2
Predicted Bowl: Orange
Toughest Remaining Tests: Clemson
In Range:
11. Penn State Score: 0.5499
12. Virginia Tech Score: 0.5376
13. LSU Score: 0.5139
14. BYU Score: 0.4394
15. Pitt Score: 0.4101
16. Oregon State Score: 0.4070
17. Miami Score: 0.3843
18. USC Score: 0.3565
19. California Score: 0.2392
20. Oklahoma State Score: 0.2251
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