(Just like a) Big East
Championship
Cincinnati (11-0) at Pittsburgh (9-2)
12:00 EST, ABC, Saturday, December 5
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Cin |
|
Pitt |
|
4th |
Total Offense |
46th |
|
47th |
Total Defense |
15th |
|
6th |
Scoring Offense |
32nd |
|
19th |
Scoring Defense |
15th |
|
58th |
Rushing Offense |
32nd |
|
49th |
Run Defense |
24th |
|
6th |
Passing Offense |
56th |
|
19th |
Passing Defense |
45th |
|
12th |
Turnover Margin |
15th |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
C |
5
highest
1 lowest |
P |
|
5 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
3 |
RBs |
5 |
|
4.5 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
4 |
|
4.5 |
D
Line |
5 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
3.5 |
Secondary |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Spec
Teams |
2.5 |
|
5 |
Coaching |
3.5 |
|
Although there’ll be no title sponsor or neutral site, the Big East has stepped into a de facto conference championship game on the final weekend of the regular season. Those cheers you hear are coming out of the league offices in Rhode Island.
c
In a constant search for an identity and national respect, the Big East caught a break that the league’s two best programs of 2009 just happen to be facing off on Saturday, with a crown and a BCS bowl berth hanging in the balance. When the conference held its annual meetings in August, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati were selected as two of the top three schools in the pecking order, yet both have clearly soared beyond expectations this fall.
The Panthers were considered the favorite in the preseason, but was anyone really that confident about their chances? We’d all been fooled before by Dave Wannstedt-led teams, who’d get off to fast starts, only to slump back to reality as the hurdles got higher. This season, however, has been different in Western Pennsylvania, as Pitt has been a steady performer throughout the year, taking six straight before last Friday’s emotional 19-16 loss to West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl.
The keys for Wannstedt have been the play along both lines and the emergence of a precocious rookie running back. When Wanny arrived from the NFL, he cited building in the trenches as his biggest priority. He wanted to routinely control the line of scrimmage with a rotation of physical linemen on both sides of the ball. The first few years? Not so much, but that has changed markedly. The Panthers lead the country in sacks and are No. 10 nationally in sacks allowed, providing foundations for the skill guys to do more damage in space. Players, like Greg Romeus, Mick Williams, and Jabaal Sheard on defense and Jason Pinkston and Lucas Nix on offense, have been the unheralded cornerstones of the team’s No. 15 ranking in the latest BCS standings.
The more heralded catalyst? Well, that would be true freshman RB Dion Lewis, whose contributions to the team have been immeasurable. Surely, no one could replace star runner LeSean McCoy, right? Uh-uh. In fact, Lewis has been better than his predecessor, rushing for a league-high 1,446 yards and 13 scores, bailing out a Panther offense built around the running game. Without Lewis, QB Bill Stull is not No. 10 nationally in passing efficiency, and Pitt is not contending for its second-ever trip to a BCS bowl game.
While Cincinnati is the defending champ, few in their right mind thought it would have a shot to be a repeat champ. Yeah, the offense would get up and down the field, but 10 new starters on defense would eventually catch up to the Bearcats. Well, eventually has yet to arrive. Cincy served notice with a road rout of favored Rutgers in the opener and has yet to look back. There’ve been challenges along the way, such as losing QB Tony Pike for a month, and a few close calls, but the school has persevered to remain one of the six unbeatens left in the FBS.
Cincinnati’s success over the last three years has become a double-edged sword around the Queen City. A third straight 10-win season has meant plenty of national notoriety and plenty of suitors for head coach Brian Kelly, who’s been linked to the opening at Notre Dame among other schools. Is this a destination program that can retain a coach of Kelly’s caliber? And will going unbeaten, yet having no shot at a national championship, be the impetus for his departure? These are the kinds of distractions that the staff will be trying to tune out leading up to Saturday’s kickoff.
Kelly has been brilliant, especially the way he handled backup QB Zach Collaros for five games, but be sure to save a bouquet or two for assistant Bob Diaco. He’s the coordinator, who came over from Virginia and inherited a single returning starter, S Aaron Webster. Despite springing some leaks in November, his unit has been a microcosm for the entire season, creating lots of pressure and raising the bar with a bunch of athletes, who share a common bond of anonymity.
Cincinnati wants to turn this game into a track meet, getting all of its skill players into space. Pittsburgh is looking for a second brawl in two weeks. Whichever school can impose its will on this game is going to exit Heinz Field with a Big East title, a BCS bowl berth, and a fat paycheck for the university.
Players to Watch: It’s Pittsburgh in December, so some semblance of a running game is a must. For Cincinnati, enter Isaiah Pead, a big-play sophomore who has added some much-needed juice on the ground for the Bearcats. The type of player who hits the hole in a hurry and can get into the secondary in the blink of an eye, when he’s on, Pike and the passing game are virtually unstoppable.
Speaking of that Cincy aerial assault, which has produced 33 touchdown passes, the Panthers must play their best game of the season to slow down game-breaker Mardy Gilyard, Armon Binns, and D.J. Woods, a trio that has found the soft spots in defenses all year. Pitt has had the occasional soft areas in the secondary, meaning it’s up to corners Ricky Gary and Jovani Chappel to limit yards after the catch and keep Gilyard, in particular, from taking the crowd out of the game.
Lewis is going to get his yards on Saturday, but when Pittsburgh is really rolling, Stull is managing the game effectively, keeping defenses form stacking the box, and occasionally getting the ball to massive WR Jonathan Baldwin and TE Dorin Dickerson, a red-zone specialist. If Cincinnati is going to have issues on defense for the third time in the last four games, it’s incumbent upon Stull to complete intermediate passes and connect on the occasional long ball downfield to Baldwin.
The spotlight on the Cincinnati D will shine squarely on the linebackers, Andre Revels, JK Schaffer, and Walter Stewart. Lewis has incredible vision and a knack for squirming through holes and falling ahead for extra yards. It’ll be up to Revels, Schaffer, and Stewart to cut off those running lanes and putting Stull in third-and-long situations as much as possible. They also have to keep an eye on Dickerson and Nate Byham, one of the best pass-catching tight end tandems in America.
Cincinnati will win if ... : Pike is well-protected. From left to right, Jeff Linkenbach, Jason Kelce, Chris Jurek, Alex Hoffman, and Sam Griffin have been fantastic this season, allowing only nine sacks in 11 games. Pitt, however, presents a unique challenge to the Bearcat front wall. Romeus and Sheard are ferocious off the edge and Williams has the quickness to shoot the gap and disrupt plays before they have a chance to develop.
With the way the Bearcats spread the field, Pike can carve up defenses with surgeon-like precision when he has time to check off and look for multiple options. After a few seconds, someone is always going to be open. If that Cincinnati offensive line can keep Pittsburgh from flushing Pike from the pocket, he’ll pick up where he left off against Illinois last Friday. If not, the Bearcats don’t have the sure-fire running game to switch gears and prevent Romeus & Co. from pinning their ears back and wreaking havoc.
Pittsburgh will win if ... : it can drag Cincinnati into a street fight. The Bearcats are a finesse team. The Panthers are the antithesis, content to bloody your nose and engage in hand-to-hand combat. If Pitt allows this to become a wide-open shootout, it lacks the firepower to go stride-for-stride. Instead, it wants to run Lewis 25 or 30 times, controlling the clock and keeping those high-octane Bearcats pacing on the sidelines. At the point of attack, Pitt is clearly the more physical team, capable of bullying Cincinnati into submission.
With that in mind, Pittsburgh absolutely, positively cannot fall behind by more than a touchdown at any point in this game. It’s not built to excel in comeback mode, and a big enough deficit might negate its edge in size, strength, and physicality. Part of the reason Stull has been so efficient this season is that he’s rarely been asked to play outside of his modest capabilities. If that changes and Lewis is forced to play more of a supporting role, the Panthers’ hopes for the win shrink dramatically.
What will happen: In a game of this magnitude, home field advantage is huge. For that matter, so is the combination of coach and quarterback, which is going to tip the scales in a tight game in Cincinnati’s favor. Pike plus Kelly trumps Stull plus Wannstedt. While it won’t be a traditional Bearcat game, Kelly will arrive prepared with a gameplan that addresses a slower pace and fewer possessions. Oh, Pike and his receivers will remain the focal point, but Pead and John Goebel should expect expanded roles and a few more touches than normal. Cincinnati is a versatile team that will make the right adjustments to erase a halftime deficit and gain the upper hand in the third quarter. Although Lewis will enjoy another big day, when Stull needs to deliver late, he’ll fall short, making the Bearcats back-to-back Big East champs.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 28 … Pittsburgh 23 ... Line: Cincinnati -1