2009 Pac 10
Championship (sort of)
Oregon State (8-3) at
Oregon (9-2)
 |
|
National
Rankings
|
|
OSU |
|
O |
|
26th |
Total Offense |
31st |
|
40th |
Total Defense |
27th |
|
20th |
Scoring Offense |
7th |
|
39th |
Scoring Defense |
44th |
|
59th |
Rushing Offense |
8th |
|
13th |
Run Defense |
40th |
|
24th |
Passing Offense |
92nd |
|
92nd |
Passing Defense |
29th |
|
39th |
Turnover Margin |
29th |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
OS |
5
highest
1 lowest |
O |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
4.5 |
|
5 |
RBs |
5 |
|
4.5 |
Receivers |
3 |
|
3 |
O
Line |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
4 |
|
3.5 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
2.5 |
Secondary |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
4.5 |
|
4.5 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
9:00 EST,
ESPN, Thursday, December 3
In all walks of life, out of rarity comes tremendous interest. With that
in mind, this year’s edition of the Civil War is going to be wildly
intriguing on a national scale.
Oregon and Oregon State have met 112 times in this heated rivalry, but
this is the first time in history that a winner-take-all scenario for
the Rose Bowl is in place. As if this game needed the addition of more
kerosene, this one promises to trump all others in terms of intensity
and significance.
Hey, the state of Oregon has to feel pretty good about owning the
spotlight on Thursday night, but how about the Pac-10? In a year when
the league’s calling card, USC, is down and out of the running for an
eighth straight title, an ad hoc championship game in primetime between
two rivals has been an unexpected gift. If anything, the Pac-10 ought to
be celebrating parity, which will be in full bloom in Eugene this week.
If the only Oregon game you caught this year was the opener at Boise
State, you’ll have a hard time believing where it resides today. Since
getting blown out by the Broncos and losing star RB LeGarrette Blount to
a temper tantrum, the Ducks got off the mat quicker than anyone could
have imagined, winning nine of the next 10 games and slowly scaling the
Top 25. With Chip Kelly feeling through his first season as the boss and
a defense littered with anonymity, the program caught fire around
playmaking QB Jeremiah Masoli and an unlikely hero behind him in the
backfield.
Hey, the staff in Eugene loved the upside potential of Blount’s heir
apparent, redshirt freshman LaMichael James, but no one could have
imagined he’d be this good. And certainly not this fast. A microcosm for
the school’s next-man-in culture, he promptly took over in Week 2 and
has gone on to rush for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns, including at
least 117 yards in each of the last six games. While he may be the most
heralded of the upstart Ducks, he’s certainly not alone. When Oregon
needed the rebuilt offensive line to mesh, it did. On defense, new pass
rushers have emerged and the secondary has somehow survived a spate of
injuries, including a season-ender to top corner Walter Thurmond.
Perseverance has had squatter’s rights in Eugene this year, yet it
hasn’t kept the Ducks from being just one game away from Pasadena.
Does anyone do a better job of coaching up Pac-10 talent than Mike Riley
and his assistants? That’s a rhetorical question. The answer is no.
Year-in and year-out, Oregon State enters a season with modest
expectations and promptly exceeds everyone’s projections. Last season,
for example. Or this season.
Before the year began, the Beavers were pegged to finish somewhere in
the middle of the Pac-10 pecking order. What else is new? Yet, here they
are with eight wins and plenty of raised eyebrows across the country.
What else is new? Oregon State doesn’t get the four and five-star
players, yet when the raw material becomes a finished product, you’ve
got all-star talent, like RB Jacquizz Rodgers, WR James Rodgers, and LB
Keaton Kristick. The Rodgers brothers, in particular, have once again
spearheaded the charge in Corvallis, helping the Beavs to four
consecutive wins and six in the last seven games.
Life will be anything but civil in Eugene on Thursday night. There’s too
much at stake and too much history between these two rivals. Oregon
hasn’t been to the Rose Bowl since the 1994 season. Oregon State? Try
1964. A date with Ohio State awaits the winner of this week’s
much-anticipated Civil War.
Players to Watch: Oregon State simply would not be in this
position if not for the emergence of Sean Canfield at quarterback. A
fifth-year senior who’s been booed lustily at time in his career, he’s
made the most of his final season, throwing 19 touchdown passes and
leading the Pac-10 in passing efficiency. The Beavers will need him to
navigate an Oregon secondary that’s been sneaky-good all year, ranking
18th nationally in pass efficiency defense, with the help of rover Javes
Lewis and FS T.J. Ward, who’s healthy again after missing parts of the
beginning of the season.
The Beavers realize that if you can’t slow down Masoli and that
eighth-ranked Oregon running game, you’ve got no chance. One look at
last year’s film of this game confirms that point. The encouraging news
for Oregon State is that it leads the Pac-10 in run defense at 98 yards
a game. Kristick has been one of the keys with a team-high 80 tackles,
but the unsung hero is DT Stephen Paea, a freakishly strong and quick
interior linemen, who makes everyone around him better. If the junior
can spend enough time in the backfield, the Beavers have a shot to
contain the Duck spread.
By design, Masoli won’t throw all that often, but when he does, he’ll
likely be looking for Ed Dickson, one of the most athletic and dangerous
tight ends in the country. A glorified wide receiver, with terrific
hands, he leads the Ducks with 42 receptions for 551 yards and six
touchdowns. He can be murder on opposing linebackers, beating them with
his speed and penchant for going up in the air and plucking the ball out
of the air.
The most interesting match up that no one will be talking about occurs
when Oregon DE Kenny Rowe lines up opposite Oregon State LT Michael
Philipp. Rowe has been the answer to the Ducks’ need for an edge rusher,
playing with the speed of an outside linebacker and leading the team
with 9.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks. In Philipp, he’ll be facing a
true freshman, but not just any true freshman. That rare blue-chipper to
call Corvallis home, he’s been as good as advertised, quickly securing
the starting job in August and playing well beyond his years.
Oregon State will win if ... : it can stand up to Oregon’s
first few uppercuts and take the Autzen Stadium crowd out of the
game…sort of.
Last November, the Ducks jumped all over the Beavers, scoring the first
10 points, leading by 20 at halftime, and never letting up in a 65-38
ambush. Oregon State absolutely, positively has to start strong and
prevent Oregon from ever building a double-digit cushion. The more
confident that Masoli and James get, the louder that lathered up crowd
is going to become. Long, sustained drives that blend the passing of
Canfield with the running of Rodgers will keep the Ducks where they’re
least dangerous—on the sideline. On defense, Oregon State needs to play
its best game of the year, maintaining its trend as the Pac-10’s top run
D, while avoiding the breakdowns in pass defense that have plagued it
from time to time during the season.
Oregon will win if ... : it keeps the Rodgers brothers from
completely taking the game over. They’re more than capable of doing it.
When Jacquizz is zipping through small holes in the defense and James is
driving opponents batty on fly sweeps, Oregon State is capable of
beating anyone in the country, including the Ducks in Eugene. Oregon has
to keep these jackrabbits in check, putting Canfield in the unenviable
position of having to do too much without a ton of help from the
receiving corps. The onus will fall on Duck linebackers Casey Matthews,
Spencer Paysinger, and Eddie Pleasant, an underrated group, which needs
to quickly fill running lanes and string out plays from sideline to
sideline. O Brother, Where Art Thou? Oregon needs to answer that
question for all 60 minutes.
What will happen: Oregon State is a good football team. Oregon
at night, at home, and with a Rose Bowl berth hanging in the balance,
will be an unbeatable team.
The stumble at Stanford aside, the Ducks have been one of the nation’s
most complete teams over the last three months, cranking up the offense
and playing above expectations on defense. Masoli in these huge spots
has been brilliant over the last two seasons, raising the level of his
play and inspiring those around him with his emotion and fullback
persona outside the pocket. James and Jacquizz will make things
interesting, to be sure, but their efforts won’t be enough to offset the
play of Masoli and James, who’ll lead Oregon to more than 250 yards on
the ground. Who knows? Maybe there’ll even be a Blount sighting in this
one, a fitting full-circle development for a school that’s comes so far
since that dreadful opening night in Boise.
CFN Prediction: Oregon 41 … Oregon State 27 ... Line:
Oregon -10
-Free
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