2009 C-USA
Championship
Houston (10-2) at East Carolina (8-4)
 |
|
National
Rankings
|
|
UH |
|
ECU |
|
1st |
Total Offense |
70th |
|
110th |
Total Defense |
68th |
|
1st |
Scoring Offense |
63rd |
|
83rd |
Scoring Defense |
31st |
|
72nd |
Rushing Offense |
60th |
|
113th |
Run Defense |
41st |
|
1st |
Passing Offense |
65th |
|
75th |
Passing Defense |
86th |
|
8th |
Turnover Margin |
13th |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
UH |
5
highest
1 lowest |
ECU |
|
5 |
Quarterbacks |
3 |
|
3.5 |
RBs |
3.5 |
|
5 |
Receivers |
3 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
4 |
|
2 |
D
Line |
4 |
|
2.5 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
3 |
Secondary |
3 |
|
3 |
Spec
Teams |
4.5 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
12:00 EST, ESPN2, Saturday, December 5
East meets West. The young guns versus the cagey defending champs. It’ll be a study of contrasts on Saturday when Houston travels to East Carolina for the Conference USA championship and the right to play in the Liberty Bowl.
In a league that’s becoming synonymous with high-octane passing games, East Carolina stands out as a shining exception. A throwback of sorts, Skip Holtz has relied on a more conservative approach in order to build a bridge to the glory days when the Pirates were routinely avoided by larger schools. Behind a mature defense and quality depth on both lines, the Pirates have won back-to-back East Division crowns, narrowly surviving a scare from Southern Miss a week ago.
These are interesting and exciting times in Greenville, a community that’s long supported this program with enthusiasm. No, this season was not on par with last year, when ECU made national news with upsets of Virginia Tech and West Virginia, but it has been another building block for Holtz, who continues to swat away offers from larger programs. Sans any star power or a defining non-conference victory, East Carolina has muscled its way through the league schedule, overcoming an Oct. 10 loss to SMU and winning five of the last six games. The program is now in a position to become the first team to win consecutive championships since Conference USA went to a divisional format.
If East Carolina is a marathoner, that would make Houston the 100-meter sprinter in this discussion. One of the most exciting and inventive programs in America, the Cougars are fueled by Heisman-contending QB Case Keenum and the nation’s most prolific offense. They’ve flirted with 700 total yards in four of the last five games, spreading the field and allowing Keenum to perform his modern-day impersonations of David Klingler and Andre Ware. Second-year head coach Kevin Sumlin hasn’t just taken the baton from Art Briles. He’s helped bring it to a new level and is a win away from fulfilling his promise of bringing championships to the program.
As different as Houston is from East Carolina, its 2009 season is surprisingly similar to the one the Pirates authored in 2008. The Cougars, too, climbed deep into the Top 25 with upsets of Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, got humbled in losses to UTEP and UCF, and needed help to get to this point. After losing in Orlando on Nov. 14, Houston actually trailed SMU in the West Division before the Mustangs fell a week later at Marshall. At No. 18 nationally in the human polls, the Cougs have an opportunity to inch closer to the top 10 with wins in the next two games.
East Carolina and Houston may be polar opposites in their methodologies and blueprints for success, but on Saturday, they’ll share the common goal of winning a Conference USA championship and earning a Jan. 2 trip to Memphis.
Players to Watch: The dirty little secret in Houston is that the defense has been a sieve throughout 2009, allowing 445 yards a game and ranking 113th nationally against the run. The Cougars have been gouged on a weekly basis, which will be an invitation for East Carolina RB Dominique Lindsay to continue his breakthrough senior season. The answer to the Pirates’ void in the backfield, he’s carried 181 times for 954 yards and three scores in a feature role for the first time in his four seasons. He’s liable to reprise his role from the Tulsa game three weeks ago when he turned a career-high 31 carries into 172 yards.
The “X” factor in the Pirate offense is Dwayne Harris, QB Patrick Pinkney’s favorite target and the man taking direct snaps when the Holtz shifts to a “Wildcat” package. Shifty in open space, he’s caught a team-high 70 balls for 791 yards and five touchdowns, adding five scores on the ground. Recognizing the vulnerabilities on the other side of the line, East Carolina will get as creative as possible in order to get the ball in No. 17’s hands.
Four players have caught at least 50 passes, so Keenum has no one favorite receiver, but James Cleveland has emerged out of the sea of smurfs as a unique weapon. A former Iowa Hawkeye and junior-college transfer, he’s been a hand-in-glove fit in Houston, using his 6-2, 205-pound frame to catch 82 passes for 941 yards and 11 touchdowns. He and his fellow pass-catchers will be facing one of the league’s most dependable and physical defensive backfields. S Van Eskridge, in particular, will be looking to make the smaller Cougars pay for crossing over the middle of the field.
As if containing Keenum and his receivers isn’t tough enough, East Carolina cannot forget about No. 25, RB Bryce Beall. While not employed as much as his freshman season, he’s still averaged five yards on his 135 carries and is a dangerous receiver on swing passes. When the field gets spread, he’s capable of getting through the line and into the secondary in a hurry. If he fails to get past that line, he’s going to take a beating. The Pirates boast the league’s most talented and experienced defensive line, which is a concern for Sumlin. The rotation is relentless, featuring C.J. Wilson and Scotty Robinson on the outside and massive Linval Joseph and Jay Ross on the interior. Keenum gets the ball off quickly, but he’s going to endure more knockdowns than normal this weekend.
Houston will win if ... : Keenum is permitted to be Keenum.
More specifically, the Cougars need to get the ball in their quarterback’s hands as quickly as possible. More possessions mean more chances to move the ball downfield and wear out the East Carolina defense. What happened in Houston’s two losses this season? Keenum and the offense were fine, but the defense just couldn’t get off the field. Against UTEP, Donald Buckram ran for 262 yards as part of a 581-yard explosion. Against UCF, Brynn Harvey went for 139 yards, helping the Knights to nearly a 20-minute edge in time of possession. The only realistic way to stop the high-powered Cougar attack is to not let it get on the field. If the Pirates control the clock and the tempo, the dynamic of this game changes dramatically.
East Carolina will win if ... : Pinkney plays up to his potential, or preferably beyond it.
Listen, Pinkney does not have to be Keenum. He doesn’t even have to be mentioned in the same sentence as Keenum. However, he does have to perform the way he did in the second half of the season, making smart decisions and picking his spots wisely. Over the last six games, he threw nine touchdown passes and just four picks, adding a pair of scores on the ground. Not coincidentally, the Pirates went 5-1. When he keeps defenses honest, there’s more running room for Lindsay and Harris to navigate. And if Lindsay and Harris are able to exploit that sketchy Houston defense, they’ll lead East Carolina to a second straight Conference USA championship. A balanced Pirate offense will be like kryptonite to the visitors.
What will happen: Defense wins championships...still.
Didn’t we see this game play out last December? Tulsa had the high-flying, record-breaking offense. East Carolina had, what, solid fundamentals? Well, the Pirates went on to win, 27-24, picking off five of David Johnson’s passes. Even if the takeaways aren’t frequent, the Pirates will make Keenum work for every first down, getting in his face, shoving around his receivers, and preventing too many yards after the catch. Oh, the Cougars will score, but not up to their usual standards. Plus, everything will be hard-earned, especially as the weather begins to turn in North Carolina.
Houston’s bigger problem will be when it must play defense. It’s an Achilles’ heel that Pinkney, Lindsay, and Harris will expose from the opening drive. While the Pirates don’t have the more explosive attack, you might not know on this afternoon. At some point, you’ve got to make a stop when a championship hangs in the balance. The Cougars won’t, giving a team from the East a title for a third straight year.
CFN Prediction: East Carolina 34 … Houston 31 ... Line: Houston -1
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