2009 Compu-Picks Regular Season Wrapup

The Compu-Picks model details some interesting stats about the 2009 college football regular season.

One of the things that I like to do with this model is come up with interesting bits of information about the season. Rankings, schedule strength, which teams got better and which got worse, which teams had an especially strong home-field edge and which did relatively better on the road (yes there WERE a few, as there usually are).

As usual, only 1-A games are counted, so it doesn't matter how badly you beat a AA foe (or if you actually struggled or lost to them), it simply counts as a bye. No boost to winning percentage, no drop to schedule strength. It's as if the game wasn't played. In some cases , it entirely explains why the schedule is rated to highly; count AA games and it drops like a stone.

Also, please remember that these ratings are used for the sole purpose of predicting future results. There are no bonus points for being undefeated, or being from a top conference, or playing X number of top 25 teams, or beating a team with a similar ranking head to head, or any single other sort of adjustment that many people use when making their rankings. Schedule strength counts a lot, and margin counts a lot. A close loss against a great team gives a better rating than a close win against a lousy team. Many people object to this, but in terms of predictive value, I consider it the only way to go. These rankings look different than most human polls, and for that matter they look different from most computer polls. That's OK. It's supposed to look different, both because its goals are different, and because it operates differently from other models. The only standard I use to judge it is how accurate its picks are, and so far this year it's been pretty decent, going 151-129 (53.9%) ATS.

Team Rankings

1 Alabama	31 Brigham Young	61 Troy State	91 Buffalo
2 Florida	32 Georgia	62 Southern Mississippi	92 Utah State
3 Texas	33 Kentucky	63 Arizona State	93 Hawaii
4 Texas Christian	34 Connecticut	64 Duke	94 Nevada-Las Vegas
5 Virginia Tech	35 Mississippi State	65 Middle Tennessee State	95 Wyoming
6 Georgia Tech	36 South Carolina	66 Iowa State	96 Louisiana-Monroe
7 Cincinnati	37 Wisconsin	67 Kansas State	97 Florida Atlantic
8 Oregon	38 Florida State	68 Purdue	98 Texas-El Paso
9 Oklahoma	39 Utah	69 Temple	99 Colorado State
10 Boise State	40 Missouri	70 Minnesota	100 San Diego State
11 Miami (Florida)	41 Boston College	71 Louisiana Tech	101 Kent
12 Nebraska	42 California	72 North Carolina State	102 Louisiana-Lafayette
13 Ohio State	43 Rutgers	73 Northwestern	103 Arkansas State
14 Louisiana State	44 Notre Dame	74 Baylor	104 Toledo
15 Penn State	45 Central Michigan	75 Ohio	105 Florida International
16 Clemson	46 Houston	76 Northern Illinois	106 Western Michigan
17 Arkansas	47 Nevada	77 Marshall	107 Army
18 Texas Tech	48 Air Force	78 Colorado	108 Memphis
19 Pittsburgh	49 Texas A&M	79 Michigan	109 North Texas
20 Iowa	50 East Carolina	80 Bowling Green State	110 Ball State
21 North Carolina	51 UCLA	81 Southern Methodist	111 Washington State
22 Oregon State	52 Wake Forest	82 Idaho	112 New Mexico
23 Stanford	53 Washington	83 Alabama-Birmingham	113 San Jose State
24 Southern California	54 Navy	84 Vanderbilt	114 Akron
25 Arizona	55 South Florida	85 Louisville	115 Miami (Ohio)
26 Mississippi	56 Virginia	86 Tulsa	116 Rice
27 Tennessee	57 Fresno State	87 Syracuse	117 Tulane
28 Oklahoma State	58 Kansas	88 Maryland	118 New Mexico State
29 West Virginia	59 Central Florida	89 Indiana	119 Western Kentucky
30 Auburn	60 Michigan State	90 Illinois	120 Eastern Michigan

Schedule Strength - Top 30 and Bottom 30

1 Mississippi State	91 New Mexico State
2 Georgia	92 Utah
3 Florida State	93 Tulsa
4 Miami (Florida)	94 Houston
5 Virginia	95 Southern Methodist
6 South Carolina	96 Nevada
7 North Carolina	97 Idaho
8 Baylor	98 Louisiana-Monroe
9 Georgia Tech	99 Akron
10 Alabama	100 Louisiana-Lafayette
11 Clemson	101 Buffalo
12 Auburn	102 Troy State
13 Virginia Tech	103 Western Kentucky
14 Oklahoma	104 Arkansas State
15 Arkansas	105 Boise State
16 Vanderbilt	106 Bowling Green State
17 North Carolina State	107 Florida Atlantic
18 Florida	108 Army
19 Mississippi	109 Eastern Michigan
20 Arizona	110 Texas-El Paso
21 Kansas	111 Central Michigan
22 Washington State	112 Ohio
23 Washington	113 Toledo
24 Duke	114 Ball State
25 Oregon State	115 North Texas
26 Wake Forest	116 Kent
27 Oregon	117 Middle Tennessee State
28 Maryland	118 Western Michigan
29 Kentucky	119 Northern Illinois
30 Louisville	120 Temple

Most vs Least Improved - Top 25 and Bottom 25

1 Nevada	96 Cincinnati
2 Northwestern	97 Florida State
3 Texas A&M	98 Louisville
4 Arkansas	99 Indiana
5 Central Florida	100 Florida International
6 New Mexico	101 Marshall
7 East Carolina	102 Eastern Michigan
8 Mississippi State	103 Western Kentucky
9 Texas Tech	104 Navy
10 North Carolina	105 Minnesota
11 Illinois	106 Arizona State
12 Alabama-Birmingham	107 Western Michigan
13 Colorado	108 Kansas
14 Oklahoma State	109 Louisiana-Monroe
15 Georgia	110 Duke
16 Oregon State	111 UCLA
17 Rice	112 Virginia
18 Texas	113 Army
19 Vanderbilt	114 Southern California
20 Louisiana Tech	115 Colorado State
21 New Mexico State	116 Arkansas State
22 North Carolina State	117 Michigan
23 Oklahoma	118 North Texas
24 Wisconsin	119 South Florida
25 Utah State	120 Iowa

Home Cooking vs Road Warriors - Top 20 and Bottom 20 Home-Field Factor
This describes how much better a team played at home vs on the road. It's well worth noting that it's neither good nor bad to be high or low on this list; it's good to have an especially strong home-field edge, with a loud crowd and possibly a weather edge, but it's also good to be able to play well on the road. Consequently, you will tend to see most really good teams around the middle of the list, because they do have a strong home-field edge but also are very capable of playing well on the road.

1 Kansas State	101 Vanderbilt
2 Troy State	102 Buffalo
3 Nevada	103 Western Kentucky
4 Auburn	104 Fresno State
5 Mississippi	105 Southern California
6 Washington	106 Cincinnati
7 Oklahoma	107 Brigham Young
8 Clemson	108 Oklahoma State
9 Texas A&M	109 Tulsa
10 South Carolina	110 Duke
11 Texas-El Paso	111 Nebraska
12 Louisiana Tech	112 Northwestern
13 Houston	113 Virginia
14 Air Force	114 Kentucky
15 Southern Mississippi	115 Ball State
16 Miami (Florida)	116 Alabama
17 Boston College	117 Florida State
18 Minnesota	118 Penn State
19 Arizona	119 Missouri
20 Alabama-Birmingham	120 Iowa

Conference Rankings - Best to Worst

1 SEC

2 ACC

3 Big 12

4 Pac-10

5 Big East

6 Big Ten

7 Mountain West

8 Indep

9 WAC

10 C-USA

11 MAC

12 Sun Belt

40 Best and 40 Worst Performances

40 Best Games

Rank	Team	Conference	Opponent	Location	Score
1	Alabama	SEC	Florida	NEUTRAL	32-13
2	Texas Tech	Big 12	Nebraska	AWAY	31-10
3	Alabama	SEC	Mississippi	AWAY	22-3
4	Florida	SEC	Kentucky	AWAY	41-7
5	Stanford	Pac-10	Southern California	AWAY	55-21
6	Alabama	SEC	Mississippi State	AWAY	31-3
7	Virginia Tech	ACC	Miami (Florida)	HOME	31-7
8	Texas Christian	Mountain West	Brigham Young	AWAY	38-7
9	Texas Tech	Big 12	Oklahoma	HOME	41-13
10	Alabama	SEC	Arkansas	HOME	35-7
11	Oklahoma	Big 12	Oklahoma State	HOME	27-0
12	Texas	Big 12	Oklahoma State	AWAY	41-14
13	Southern California	Pac-10	California	AWAY	30-3
14	Ohio State	Big Ten	Penn State	AWAY	24-7
15	Texas	Big 12	Missouri	AWAY	41-7
16	Texas A&M	Big 12	Texas Tech	AWAY	52-30
17	Oregon	Pac-10	California	HOME	42-3
18	Cincinnati	Big East	Rutgers	AWAY	47-15
19	Alabama	SEC	Virginia Tech	NEUTRAL	34-24
20	Oklahoma	Big 12	Texas A&M	HOME	65-10
21	Virginia	ACC	North Carolina	AWAY	16-3
22	Florida	SEC	Louisiana State	AWAY	13-3
23	Kansas State	Big 12	Texas A&M	HOME	62-14
24	Florida	SEC	Georgia	NEUTRAL	41-17
25	Iowa	Big Ten	Iowa State	AWAY	35-3
26	Miami (Florida)	ACC	Georgia Tech	HOME	33-17
27	Notre Dame	Indep	Nevada	HOME	35-0
28	Florida State	ACC	Brigham Young	AWAY	54-28
29	Oregon	Pac-10	Southern California	HOME	47-20
30	North Carolina	ACC	Boston College	AWAY	31-13
31	Georgia Tech	ACC	Duke	AWAY	49-10
32	Georgia	SEC	Arkansas	AWAY	52-41
33	Washington	Pac-10	California	HOME	42-10
34	Florida	SEC	Troy State	HOME	56-6
35	Georgia	SEC	Georgia Tech	AWAY	30-24
36	North Carolina	ACC	Virginia Tech	AWAY	20-17
37	Iowa	Big Ten	Penn State	AWAY	21-10
38	Penn State	Big Ten	Michigan State	AWAY	42-14
39	Georgia Tech	ACC	North Carolina	HOME	24-7
40	Virginia Tech	ACC	Boston College	HOME	48-14

40 Worst Games

Rank	Team	Conference	Opponent	Location	Score
-1	New Mexico State	WAC	Hawaii	AWAY	6-24
-2	Western Kentucky	Sun Belt	Troy State	HOME	10-40
-3	New Mexico State	WAC	Nevada	HOME	20-63
-4	Western Michigan	MAC	Ball State	HOME	17-22
-5	Rice	C-USA	Vanderbilt	HOME	17-36
-6	Tulane	C-USA	Rice	AWAY	20-28
-7	Ohio	MAC	Kent	HOME	11-20
-8	New Mexico State	WAC	Fresno State	HOME	3-34
-9	Akron	MAC	Indiana	HOME	21-38
-10	New Mexico	Mountain West	Wyoming	AWAY	13-37
-11	Texas-El Paso	C-USA	Memphis	AWAY	20-35
-12	Florida International	Sun Belt	Toledo	HOME	31-41
-13	Colorado State	Mountain West	San Diego State	HOME	28-42
-14	New Mexico	Mountain West	New Mexico State	HOME	17-20
-15	Tulane	C-USA	Marshall	HOME	10-31
-16	Tulane	C-USA	Central Florida	AWAY	0-49
-17	Western Michigan	MAC	Northern Illinois	AWAY	3-38
-18	Washington State	Pac-10	Hawaii	HOME	20-38
-19	Rice	C-USA	Navy	HOME	14-63
-20	Miami (Ohio)	MAC	Western Michigan	AWAY	26-48
-21	Marshall	C-USA	Texas-El Paso	AWAY	21-52
-22	Rice	C-USA	Central Florida	HOME	7-49
-23	Eastern Michigan	MAC	Northern Illinois	AWAY	6-50
-24	Western Kentucky	Sun Belt	North Texas	AWAY	49-68
-25	New Mexico	Mountain West	Nevada-Las Vegas	HOME	17-34
-26	Tulane	C-USA	Tulsa	HOME	13-37
-27	Miami (Ohio)	MAC	Buffalo	HOME	17-42
-28	Eastern Michigan	MAC	Toledo	AWAY	21-47
-29	San Jose State	WAC	Nevada	HOME	7-62
-30	Akron	MAC	Temple	HOME	17-56
-31	Ball State	MAC	North Texas	HOME	10-20
-32	Louisiana-Lafayette	Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	HOME	29-51
-33	Eastern Michigan	MAC	Army	HOME	14-27
-34	Western Kentucky	Sun Belt	Florida International	HOME	20-37
-35	New Mexico	Mountain West	Tulsa	HOME	10-44
-36	Eastern Michigan	MAC	Western Michigan	HOME	14-35
-37	North Texas	Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	HOME	6-33
-38	Eastern Michigan	MAC	Kent	HOME	6-28
-39	New Mexico State	WAC	Texas-El Paso	HOME	12-38
-40	Toledo	MAC	Western Michigan	HOME	26-58

25 Biggest Head-Scratchers

These were the games that, after all of the games have been played, stick out as especially weird. For instance, if a 20-point underdog wins by 10 early in the year, but then they go 8-4 and the team they upset goes 4-8, well, that's not really so weird. But if a 14-point favorite wins by 35, then ends up 4-8 while the team they beat goes 8-4, then that would stick out as a weird result despite it making sense at the time.

25 Biggest Surprises

Order	Team	Conference	Opponent	Location	Score
1	Texas A&M	Big 12	Texas Tech	AWAY	52-30
2	Kansas State	Big 12	Texas A&M	HOME	62-14
3	Virginia	ACC	North Carolina	AWAY	16-3
4	Texas-El Paso	C-USA	Houston	HOME	58-41
5	Syracuse	Big East	Rutgers	HOME	31-13
6	Western Michigan	MAC	Toledo	AWAY	58-26
7	Colorado State	Mountain West	Nevada	HOME	35-20
8	Northwestern	Big Ten	Iowa	AWAY	17-10
9	Stanford	Pac-10	Southern California	AWAY	55-21
10	Texas-El Paso	C-USA	Marshall	HOME	52-21
11	Texas Tech	Big 12	Nebraska	AWAY	31-10
12	Kent	MAC	Ohio	AWAY	20-11
13	Notre Dame	Indep	Nevada	HOME	35-0
14	Washington	Pac-10	California	HOME	42-10
15	Rutgers	Big East	South Florida	HOME	31-0
16	Purdue	Big Ten	Ohio State	HOME	26-18
17	Texas Tech	Big 12	Oklahoma	HOME	41-13
18	Florida State	ACC	Brigham Young	AWAY	54-28
19	Southern California	Pac-10	California	AWAY	30-3
20	Illinois	Big Ten	Michigan	HOME	38-13
21	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	North Texas	AWAY	33-6
22	Georgia	SEC	Arkansas	AWAY	52-41
23	Toledo	MAC	Colorado	HOME	54-38
24	Georgia	SEC	Georgia Tech	AWAY	30-24
25	Iowa State	Big 12	Nebraska	AWAY	9-7

Some other notes about the model's numbers:

1) The model thinks that the Big Ten sucks (for a BCS league anyway). Most pollsters and BCS computers disagree.

Compu-picks looks at games like:
Indiana (1-7 B10) getting waxed by 40 at Virginia (2-6 ACC) and nearly losing at home to Western Michigan
NW (5-3 B10) losing at Syracuse (1-6 BE) and almost losing to Eastern Michigan, arguably the worst team in 1-A; also only beat Miami of Ohio (who only has ONE 1-A win) by 10 at home
Minn (3-5 B10) losing at home by 14 to Cal (5-3 Pac-10) and getting taken to OT by Syracuse (1-6 BE)
Ohio St (7-1 B10) losing at home to USC (5-3 Pac-10)
Purdue (4-4 B10) losing at home to Northern Illinois (though at least they had a nice showing @ Oregon)
Illinois (2-6 B10) getting waxed on a neutral field by Mizzou (4-4 B12)
Penn St (6-2 B10) playing NO ONE non-conference
Wisconsin (4-4 B10) getting taken to overtime at home by Fresno
Mich St (4-4 B10) losing at home to Central Michigan

Yeah, there are a few bright spots... but not many, and not nearly to offset all of the ugliness. Other models and pollsters may be fooled a boatload of easy wins against lousy teams (poster child: Penn St), but not this one. I stand by my model's conclusion that the Big Ten is the worst of the BCS leagues this year... and it's not even close. That said, Wisconsin’s dominating win at Hawaii helped a bit, and if they can come up with a respectable bowl showing, that could end up better than 6th.

2) The ACC is STILL the #2 conference according to the model, though it took a substantial hit in week 13 for obvious reasons. Overall, there are still a boatload of very solid performances against non-SEC OOC opponents, from the aforementioned ass-kicking by UVA over Indy, to VA Tech's win over Nebraska and convincing win at ECU, to UNC's win at UConn, to Wake's win over Stanford, to FSU's beatdown at BYU, to NC St's win over Pitt, to Miami’s beatdown of USF, and a few more I'm not bothering to mention. Aside from Maryland, the two AA losses, Duke's thrashing at Kansas, and two upset losses by Clemson and Georgia Tech, there's a stunning lack of crappy non-conference performances, especially considering how many solid showings they have.

I disagree with this result; had the model counted the AA games it would have dropped a bit further, at least to #3, possibly to #4 or #5 (2 through 5 are all fairly close together), and I think that would be a fair result. Still, it’s hard to say that the ACC is substantially below any leagues other than the SEC this year. And yes, that does make the resounding point about how far above the rest the SEC is this year, though bowl season may lead to a re-evaluation.

3) Given the amount of flak I’ve taken at times for having Oklahoma ranked highly (and now they’re #9), I figured they deserved their own section. No, I don’t think it’s correct, but yes, I do think it’s reasonable and defensible (worth noting: LVSC currently has them 11th, see: http://www.vegasinsider.com/co...fm/story/936207 ), so it’s not like the model is alone on an island on this one. Anyway, here’s why they’re so high:

They had two EXTREMELY impressive wins, thumpings over OK St and A&M (by 55!); both currently make the model’s list of 40 performances , which puts them in pretty good company, considering that Bama, Florida, and Texas combined account for eleven, and no one else has more than two). They also barely lost to Miami (on the road) and Texas (NO ONE ELSE came within single digits, and most lost by 20+). Overall, they’re 6-5 against 1-A teams, which doesn’t sound great, but it’s against an absolutely brutal schedule, and they’ve been dominant in their wins and oh so close in their losses (except Tech of course). Yes, they’re been extremely inconsistent, but it fluctuates between mediocre showings and outstanding shows, for the most part, and there’s been a lot of outstanding.

4) The following teams are ranked much higher by the model than the BCS: Florida (see note 6), Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Clemson,Arkansas, Texas Tech, UNC. Virginia Tech, Oklahoma (aside from the Tech loss), Miami (aside from VA Tech), Clemson (aside from South Carolina) and Arkansas (aside from Bama) are all teams with very tough schedules, and who have had close losses and blowout wins. The model rewards both types of things, because those types of teams tend to be a lot better than their records.

Nebraska (aside from the Tech loss) has been consistently convincing in their wins, and occasionally hugely dominant; also, three of their four losses were by less than a field goal, which was far less of a detriment to their rating than if they had been convincing losses.

UNC's schedule is ranked as one of the toughest, which significantly boosted their ranking. They have yet to play a truly bad 1-A team, and have played a number of very good teams. To be 6-4 (UNC) against THAT slates is legitimately impressive.

5) The following teams are ranked much lower than the model than the BCS: Cincy, Boise St, Ohio St, Iowa, BYU, West Virginia, Oklahoma St, Utah, Wisconsin. It should be pretty clear why the Big Ten schools are lower, so I won't rehash that one.

Cincy has had a very mediocre schedule for an alleged top three team, and they’ve hardly been week-in, week-out dominant against that slate (which would be TCU’s and Texas’s excuse). They have some legitimately impressive wins (blowout at Rutgers, 10-point win at Oregon St, 17-pont win a USF), but they have a number of red flags, like only beating Fresno by 8 at home, only beating UConn by 2 at home, only beating West Virginia by 3 at home, only beating a truly awful Illinois team by 13 at home, and only beating Pitt by one point in what was supposed to be a national title game audition (should Texas lose, which almost happened). On any given Saturday, they can play at a national title level, but they can also be surprisingly mediocre… and it’s happened multiple times. I’m OK with the model being lower on them than pretty much everyone else.

Boise is simply getting killed for an awful strength of schedule. That said, they’ve been extremely dominant against that schedule, and they do have a good win over Oregon, so it’s at least arguable that the model is underrating them. The problem is, since they really haven’t proved much (undefeated, but only one top 40 win), it’s hard to rate them accurately; no matter what, there are assumptions involved in comparing blowouts against crappy teams to less dominating wins against good teams. BCS homers might say Boise isn’t even top 15 and has no business in the Fiesta Bowl, WAC homers might say Boise is a top 3 team because beating Oregon is awesome and nothing else matters. I think 10th is a touch low but at least reasonable.

West Virginia is 8-3 against a decent but not great 1-A schedule. Their most dominating wins were by 21 against Syracuse, 17 against Marshall and 15 against ECU. Twice they’ve lost by double-digits, to both Auburn and USF. Most of their wins have been close. If you totally ignore margin you can argue them higher, but this model counts margin. They have two double-digit losses, and not a single showing that the model would put in its top 100, or even close to it. I’m not really sure why you’d think this is a clear top 25 team (and being ranked 16th says that plenty of people do). Around the edges… okay. Top 20 and nearly top 15? I don’t buy it.

Oklahoma St’s reasons resemble West Virginia, except the difference isn’t quite as extreme. They also have played an OK schedule, and they had three double-digit losses vs WV’s two. But they also had some higher-level showings, like demolishing Baylor and winning pretty easily against Georgia and Mizzou, plus a nice win over Texas Tech. Overall, top 20 seems like a reach in my opinion, though if you want to ignore margin you can probably make a reasonable case.

Utah has beaten precisely nobody (toughest test they passed was Air Force at home, and that took overtime), has three losses, and to be honest, I’ve got no clue why they’re ranked. “Helmet” status isn’t just for BCS schools anymore, I guess.

BYU has the win over Oklahoma, but that's offset by getting hammered by FSU at home. Not much else heft to the resume, plenty of wins but not much schedule strength (and only beating an awful New Mexico team by 5 doesn't help). However, they’re not really that far off either.

6) Florida lost by a bunch to Bama but only got knocked down to 2nd? Why is that? Well, a few things: first, they previously enjoyed a substantial gap over 3rd and below (last week: .75 vs .69; now it’s .70 vs .67); second, Texas hardly looked like a national title team when they squeaked by Nebraska (solid win if you’re top 10, great if you’re top 20… not so awesome if you’re trying for top 2); and third, Bama is a really good team. It’s not like they got punked by Alabama-Birmingham here, and while the loss certainly dropped them, it’s hardly the sort of result that ought to make you think that the sky is falling. They’re still a really good team and have a whole season’s worth of really good results to prove it. I’m sure it’s not popular, but I’m totally cool with this result from the model. I wouldn’t vote Florida 2nd myself, but it is absolutely reasonable.

Mr Pac-10's 2009 Blog

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