DG on PX - Picking the Bowls

Oregon State busted out in the winner-takes-all Civil War. Can the Beavers respond with a victory in the Las Vegas Bowl?

Year to date - 57-19 straight up, 37-37 against the spread

Las Vegas Bowl
Oregon State vs. BYU
My Pick – Oregon State 34, BYU 27
Why I’m Thinking the Way I’m Thinking – Is it possible the wrong Oregon State player has been anointed a Heisman candidate? Defensive tackle Stephen Paea was ferocious in the Civil War, posting two tackles for loss and two forced fumbles. Unfortunately, Paea and the Beavers couldn’t force a stop late. They might not have needed to if quarterback Sean Canfield and the offense not settled for two red-zone field goals. Scoring touchdowns will be crucial, especially with BYU quarterback Max Hall (3368 yards passing, 30 touchdowns) on the opposing sideline. The rebuilt secondary, which will be without corner Tim Clark (broken leg), must withstand Hall’s aerial assault. Dominating time of possession with Jacquizz Rodgers to keep Hall off the field might be the best approach.
What It Means for 2010 – On schedule alone, Oregon State must be considered a serious contender to reach the Rose Bowl. Factor in the return of the Rodgers, nine of ten on the offensive line two-deep and all but one defensive starter, the Beavers look like the most viable challenger to the rival Ducks once again. That is, if Canfield and linebacker Keaton Kristick can be replaced without significant drop off.

Poinsettia Bowl
Cal vs. Utah
My Pick – Utah 31, Cal 24
Why I’m Thinking the Way I’m Thinking – Just when it looked as if the Bears turned the corner with gutsy wins over Arizona and Stanford, they face plant in the season finale against a Washington team with one-half their talent. Utah has been far more consistent, giving Oregon all it could handle at Autzen and falling just short in the Holy War. The Utes pass defense has been lights out, led by senior safety Robert Johnson and his five interceptions, and Cal quarterback Kevin Riley can make his share of mistakes. In the Bears’ losses, Riley completed 60 of 137 passes (43.8 percent). Rattle him and Cal loses. The Bears need to rely on its rushing attack and hope senior defensive end Tyson Alualu (10 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks this season) and company frustrate an offense led by freshman QB Jordan Wynn. Without Jahvid Best (concussion) and a handful of other starters banged up, Utah feels like the safer pick.
What It Means for 2010 – Even with a win, the Bears won’t be saddled with the enormous expectations of years past. Trips to USC and Oregon State, the expected departure of star tailback Best and memories of blowout losses will have the pundits pegging Cal outside the top three in conference. However, signs of an improved Riley could be the difference in breaking through a loaded Pac-10.