2009 Armed Forces Bowl - Houston vs Air Force

The CFN 2009 Armed Forces Bowl Preview - Air Force vs. Houston

2009 Armed Forces Bowl

Air Force (7-5) vs. Houston (10-3)

12:00 EST, ESPN, Thursday, December 31

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Team Pages and 2009 Season
Air Force | Houston 
 

- 2008 CFN Armed Forces Bowl Preview
- 2007 CFN Armed Forces Bowl Preview
- 2006 CFN Armed Forces Bowl Preview

National Rankings
A		H
77th	Total Offense	1st
10th	Total Defense	108th
54th	Scoring Offense	2nd
9th	Scoring Defense	88th
3rd	Rushing Offense	83rd
45th	Run Defense	111th
118th	Passing Offense	1st
1st	Passing Defense	77th
3rd	Turnover Margin	15th

Position Ratings relative to each other
A	5 highest 1 lowest	H
3	Quarterbacks	5
3	RBs	3.5
1	Receivers	5
5	O Line	3.5
4	D Line	2
3	Linebackers	3
5	Secondary	1.5
4	Spec Teams	3.5
5	Coaching	4

Armed Forces Bowl History

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2008	Houston 34, Air Force 28
2007	California 42, Air Force 36
2006	Utah 25, Tulsa 13
2005	Kansas 42, Houston 13
2004	Cincinnati 32, Marshall 14
2003	Boise State 34, TCU 31

Air Force and Houston are back in Fort Worth for a second straight year, testing whether the tortoise or the hare will win the Armed Forces Bowl this time.

A study in contrasts, the Falcons and the Cougars will tee it up exactly a year after the Cougs prevailed 34-28. Air Force is No. 3 in the country in rushing and has one of the most underrated defenses around. Houston, on the other hand, leads the country in passing and has a feeble defense. In other words, it’ll be a battle of old school vs. new school at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

For a time, it looked as if Houston might be the first Conference USA team ever to be a bona fide BCS buster. A perfect September included upsets of Oklahoma State and Texas Tech and an improbable No. 12 ranking. The high-powered passing game was humming as usual, positioning record-breaking QB Case Keenum for all kinds of national honors. However, even at a school like Houston, you’ve got to play defense once in a while if you’re going to navigate all of the landmines of a 12-game schedule. The Cougars didn’t, which is why they’re playing in December instead of January.

By the first week of October, Houston’s defensive flaws got exposed. UTEP RB Donald Buckram ran for 262 yards and four scores in a 58-41 rout that significantly lowered the bar for the Cougars. They’d get plucked again a month later by UCF, 37-32, yet with a little help still ended up as West Division champs. That’s where the titles would stop. In the Conference USA championship game, Houston couldn’t contain a balanced East Carolina offense, losing 38-32. While Keenum has thrown for more than 5,000 yards and accounted for 47 touchdowns, the Cougars won’t be a complete team until it starts playing some consistent defense.

For Air Force, this will be a third consecutive trip to the Armed Forces Bowl, the Academy’s longest postseason streak since the early 1990s. Head coach Troy Calhoun has helped breathe new life into the Falcons since arriving in time for the 2007 season and replacing legendary Fisher DeBerry. While the offense still has the familiar look of DeBerry’s old option attacks, the defense has been a revelation under coordinator Tim DeRuyter. Although this next opponent presents an entirely different challenge, Air Force does lead the nation in pass defense, allowing just four touchdown passes in the first 11 games. Plus, it’s been dynamite at creating big plays, leading the Mountain West with 28 takeaways.

Air Force enters this game with something to prove. Sure, it’ll be playing in a third bowl game in-a-row, but it has sort of feasted on the softer, less competitive portion of the schedule during that time. Over the last two seasons, the Falcons are 0-8 versus Utah, TCU, BYU, and Navy, the most notable opponents on the schedule. Their most impressive win of 2009? Err, that would have to be Wyoming, which finished the regular season at 6-6. That’ll change if they can upset Houston, a team that’s just outside the Top 25 and spent most of the season ranked.

Players to Watch: Keenum makes the Houston offense go with his quick delivery, accurate throws, and grasp of Dana Holgorsen’s offense. He does, however, get plenty of help from the supporting cast. His receiving corps is as deep as any in the country, boasting five players with at least 40 catches and three with no less than 80. Air Force will have to pay particular attention to James Cleveland, Tyron Carrier, and Patrick Edwards. Cleveland, who began his career at Iowa, has blossomed into a star in this offense, catching a team-high 101 passes for 1,182 yards and 14 touchdowns. His size and physicality along with the quickness of Carrier, Edwards, and all-purpose RB Charles Sims will keep the Falcons guessing all afternoon.

The Falcons believe they have the answers on defense to at least slow down the high-octane Houston passing game. Until facing QB Max Hall and BYU at the end of the regular season, Air Force was air-tight in pass defense, limiting big plays over the top and yards after the catch. Three members of the secondary earned All-Mountain West honors, Reggie Rembert, Anthony Wright, and Chris Thomas, who combined for 10 interceptions. The best combination of corners the program has had in ages, Rembert and Wright are a couple of terrific athletes, with the burst and change-of-direction to stay with the Cougars’ quicker receivers. Houston must also contend up front with DT Ben Garland, an interior lineman with the quick first step to get in Keenum’s face as he throws. He leads the Falcons with 10.5 tackles for loss, often requiring more than one blocker.

To have a chance on Thursday, Air Force must be successful at extending drives and keeping Keenum on the sidelines for as long as possible. In other words, QB Tim Jefferson needs to be at full-strength and able to play up to his expectations. He’s had an inconsistent sophomore year, largely due to nagging injuries, including bruised ribs in the final regular season game. When he’s on, the ground game can be devastating, pounding away at defenses with a combination of 210-pound bruiser Jared Tew and 185-pound playmaker Asher Clark. Tew had his first start in last year’s game, rushing for a bowl-record 149 yards. And the Houston run defense hasn’t plugged any holes since then.

Air Force will win if ... : it can control the tempo of the game and win the turnover margin. The Falcons’ best defense will be a ground-control offense and a couple of drive-ending takeaways. Air Force basically has to do what it does best, pounding it on the ground at least 60 times with a combination of Tew, Clark, Jefferson, and Savier Stephens, and dominating time of possession. It’s sort of elementary, but if Keenum and the Houston receivers aren’t on the field, they’re no threat to the Falcon D. When the Air Force running game is clicking, it has the ability to bring a defense to its knees. Why would the Cougars be any different? They rank 111th nationally against the run and have a dearth of talent on the defensive side of the ball. What happens on third down will be crucial. Air Force has been solid all year at converting, while Houston has struggled to make stops when it matters. For the Falcons, that trend must continue on New Year’s Eve.
Houston will win if ... : it forces Air Force out of its comfort zone. If the Cougars can turn this game into a track meet, the Falcons are in deep trouble. They just don’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace in that type of a game, ranking 118th in passing and getting held below 20 points on five different occasions. Houston has the attack to survive in comeback mode, but will really put Air Force in a corner if it can build an early lead and grow it to double-digits at any point. Keenum needs to win the game-within-the-game with the Falcon secondary, peppering it with short and intermediate throws to his wave of receivers and avoiding settling on Matt Hogan field goal attempts. Air Force has allowed more than 23 points just one time all year and wasn’t competitive after the first quarter in that game. Houston needs to follow a similar blueprint in Fort Worth.

What will happen: This shapes up as a battle of wills, with both Houston and Air Force determined to impose its style of play on the other. The Cougars want to air it out, dragging the Falcons into unfamiliar territory. The Falcons want to slow things down, controlling the clock and bloodying the Cougars’ nose. Advantage Cougs … barely. Much like the two times these schools met in 2008, this is going to be a close, competitive game that won’t get decided until the final minutes. While Houston will have success on offense, it’s not going to erupt the way it did against some of Conference USA’s feebler defenses. And its defense will make sure that Air Force is never too far behind. However, didn’t we get a glimpse of the Falcons’ true colors in the last game with BYU, another high-powered team led by a talented veteran quarterback? They got shredded for 377 yards and five touchdown passes. Even if Keenum can’t hit those numbers, he’ll do enough to get the Cougars a second straight Armed Forces Bowl win.

CFN Prediction: Houston 33 … Air Force 27 ... Line: Houston -4.5

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Best Falcon Bowl Moment: One of the most decisive postseason wins in Air Force history came in the 1998 Oahu Bowl, a 45-25 demolition of the Pac-10’s Washington. The Falcons were uncommonly balanced in the lopsided victory, generating 232 yards on the ground and 267 yards through the air from game MVP, QB Blane Morgan.

Best Cougar Bowl Moment: The last second upset of Nebraska in the 1980 Cotton Bowl warrants real strong consideration; however, it’s the 30-21 win over unbeaten Maryland in the 1977 Cotton Bowl that has a special place in the hearts of Cougar fans. The school’s first trip to a New Year’s Day bowl game was the finishing touch on an unforgettable season that saw Houston stun the Southwest Conference by winning the league in its debut as a member.

Houston Bowl History (9-10)

2008	Armed Forces	Houston 34, Air Force 28
2007	Texas	TCU 20, Houston 13
2006	Liberty	S Carolina 44, Houston 36
2005	Fort Worth	Kansas 42, Houston 13
2003	Hawaii	Hawaii 54, Houston 48 (3OT)
1996	Liberty	Syracuse 30, Houston 17
1988	Aloha	Washington State 24, Houston 22
1985	Cotton	Boston College 45, Houston 28
1981	Sun	Oklahoma 40, Houston 14
1980	Garden State	Houston 35, Navy 0
1980	Cotton	Houston 17, Nebraska 14
1979	Cotton	Notre Dame 35, Houston 34
1977	Cotton	Houston 30, Maryland 21
1974	Bluebonnet	Houston 31, NC State 31
1973	Bluebonnet	Houston 47, Tulane 7
1971	Bluebonnet	Colorado 29, Houston 17
1969	Bluebonnet	Houston 36, Auburn 7
1962	Tangerine	Houston 49, Miami (Ohio) 21
1952	Salad	Houston 26, Dayton 21

Air Force Bowl History (8-9-1)

2008	Armed Forces	Houston 34, Air Force 28
2007	Armed Forces	Cal 42, Air Force 36
2002	San Fran.	Virginia Tech 20, Air Force 13
2000	Silicon Valley	Air Force 37, Fresno State 34
1998	Oahu	Air Force 45, Washington 25
1997	Las Vegas	Oregon 41, Air Force 13
1995	Copper	Texas Tech 55, Air Force 41
1992	Liberty	Mississippi 13, Air Force 0
1991	Liberty	Air Force 38, Mississippi St. 15
1990	Liberty	Air Force 23, Ohio St. 11
1989	Liberty	Mississippi 42, Air Force 29
1987	Freedom	Arizona St. 33, Air Force 28
1985	Bluebonnet	Air Force 24, Texas 16
1984	Indep.	Air Force 23, Virginia Tech 7
1983	Indep.	Air Force 9, Mississippi 3
1982	Hall of Fame	Air Force 36, Vanderbilt 28
1971	Sugar	Tennessee 34, Air Force 13
1963	Gator	North Carolina 35, Air Force 0
1959	Cotton	Air Force 0, TCU 0