DG on PX - Picking the Emerald Bowl

Motivation, not talent, is the question for USC heading into the Emerald Bowl. Will the Trojans show up and take care of Boston College?

Year to date - 58-20 straight up, 38-38 against the spread
(1-1 straight up and ATS this bowl season)

Emerald Bowl
USC vs. Boston College
My Pick – USC 30, Boston College 13
Why I’m Thinking the Way I’m Thinking – If the Trojans show up, they win. It’s just that simple. They have more talent than the Eagles as every position, but motivation is the big unknown, especially with the loss of three players for academics and unknown status of Joe McKnight. However, McKnight’s absence could be the necessary spark to keep USC invested in Allen Bradford, a punishing runner who keyed wins over Oregon State and UCLA. Quarterback Matt Barkley’s production tailed off late in the year, so he needs a stable rushing attack. Boston College has struggled to score, so avoiding turnovers should be enough for the win. For all their well-documented breakdowns, the Trojan defense has been effective against impotent foes like UCLA and Arizona State. The Eagles, who only topped 30 points against a BCS opponent once, certainly qualify. Pete Carroll will pull out all the stops against running back Montel Harris, including allowing safety Taylor Mays to attack the line of scrimmage in his final game.
What It Means for 2010 – Few predicted a four-loss season for USC, though there were signs of trouble: a freshman quarterback, massive turnover on defense, new coordinators and a ferocious road schedule. Barkley’s learning curve was a steep one, but the Trojans will be better for it next year. The secondary must be rebuilt and depth established at linebacker, but the defense can’t be worse. Without an Ohio State to drain emotional reserves in the non-conference slate and a better home draw, USC enters the season in good shape to return to the BCS and could challenge for the BCS title, especially if it conquers the curse of Corvallis.