Stanford (+10) vs Oklahoma
Stanford is ranked, Oklahoma is not, but the Sooners are simply a much better team. Their offense has been very up and down, but their defense is fantastic. And since Andrew Luck will either be playing hurt or won’t be playing at all, Stanford is likely to become one-dimensional on offense, which means that Oklahoma should be able to largely contain Stanford and put more than enough points on the board against a consistently vulnerable Cardinal defense.
Oklahoma 31, Stanford 17
Oregon (-3.5) vs Ohio St
This is a hard game to peg. Ohio St has been consistently decent to good in their bowl games (the disaster against Florida aside), which makes it tough to blow them out. Moreover, both of the teams who beat the Ducks this year had extra time to prepare for their offense, and the Buckeyes have plenty of time for that. However, Oregon is simply a better football team. Unless their defense completely collapses (possible given their play over their last few games but still unlikely), they should be able to largely hold down Ohio St’s offense, and their own offense will put enough points on the board to win it, though it’ll be a hard-fought battle.
Oregon 27, Ohio St 24
Navy vs Missouri (-6.5)
Navy 31, Missouri 28
Mizzou is better, but probably not that much better. Extra time to prepare for Navy’s offense will help a bit, but not enough. When in doubt, pick the underdog.
Air Force vs Houston (-4.5)
Air Force 31, Houston 28
I think Houston is one of the most overrated teams in the country; at the least this is about a tossup, and honestly I think Air Force is actually a bit better.
Iowa St vs Minnesota (-2)
Iowa St 28, Minnesota 24
Minnesota simply isn’t the same without Erik Decker. I don’t get why they’re favored here.
Tennessee vs Virginia Tech (-5.5)
Virginia Tech 28, Tennessee 17
The Vols are better than they get credit for, but Virginia Tech is far better than they get credit for. They have more talent, are better coached, and won’t be caught napping in this game.
Northwestern vs Auburn (-7.5)
Auburn 31, Northwestern 24
This could be a decent game, but I don’t see the upset. Neither team is hugely consistent, but Auburn is still substantially better.
Florida St vs West Virginia (-2.5)
WV 28, FSU 20
Florida St isn’t quite as bad as many people think, but West Virginia is a better team, and won’t fall victim to the ‘Noles in yet another bowl matchup between these two programs.
LSU vs Penn St (-2.5)
Penn St 24, LSU 23
I have no clue who wins, but I strongly suspect this will be one of the best bowl games of the season.
Cincy vs Florida (-12.5)
Florida 31, Cincy 24
Florida is certainly better than the Bearcats, but not nearly two touchdowns better. With both teams dealing with coaching situation issues in the offseason, how each responds will be a huge deal here.
Northern Illinois vs South Florida (-6.5)
USF 31, NIU 21
I think USF is more than a touchdown better, though I really don’t feel strongly about this one.
UConn vs South Carolina (-4.5)
UConn 24, South Carolina 20
No one is really paying attention to the Huskies, but they’re a decent football team, more than good enough to knock off a South Carolina team that is unlikely to be fully focused on an opponent they won’t think highly of.
Oklahoma St vs Ole Miss (-3)
Miss 28, OK St 24
I don’t trust either team to play well or play poorly. This should be a good, entertaining game, but either one could win by two touchdowns.
East Carolina vs Arkansas (-7.5)
Arkansas 27, ECU 24
This could easily be an upset. ECU is underrated and under-appreciated, and Arkansas is a bit up and down. Over a touchdown is just too high of a line here.
Michigan St vs Texas Tech (-7)
Texas Tech 35, Michigan St 20
The Mike Leach drama is a huge distraction for the Red Raiders, but that doesn’t change the fact that they’re much better than Michigan St. They should win easily.
Boise St vs TCU (-7.5)
TCU 28, Boise St 24
This line is a touch high. Both teams are very good, and this should be an excellent game, easily one of the most interesting of the entire bowl season.
Iowa vs Georgia Tech (-3.5)
Georgia Tech 35, Iowa 28
Georgia Tech’s defense is awful, but even though Iowa will have extra time to prepare, the Yellow Jacket offense will simply be able to outscore the Hawkeyes.
Troy vs Central Michigan (-3.5)
Troy 31, CMU 30
When in doubt, pick the underdog.
Texas vs Alabama (-4)
Alabama 28, Texas 20
Texas is a quality team, but Alabama is simply better. Much is being made of the success the #2 teams have had, of Texas’s upset over USC, and of Bama’s loss to Utah. These things will only ensure that Alabama is focused and prepared for this game.
Regular Season Record:
Pac-10: 54-21 SU, 29-39-3 ATS
National: 26-17 SU, 20-22-1 ATS
Bad Lines: 40-32-1
Mr Pac-10's 2009 Blog
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