2009 Compu-Picks Post-Bowl Wrapup

The Compu-Picks model details some interesting stats about the 2009 college football season.

One of the things that I like to do with this model is come up with interesting bits of information about the season. Rankings, schedule strength, which teams got better and which got worse, which teams had an especially strong home-field edge and which did relatively better on the road (yes there WERE a few, as there usually are).

As usual, only 1-A games are counted, so it doesn't matter how badly you beat a AA foe (or if you actually struggled or lost to them), it simply counts as a bye. No boost to winning percentage, no drop to schedule strength. It's as if the game wasn't played. In some cases , it entirely explains why the schedule is rated to highly; count AA games and it drops like a stone.

Also, please remember that these ratings are used for the sole purpose of predicting future results. There are no bonus points for being undefeated, or being from a top conference, or playing X number of top 25 teams, or beating a team with a similar ranking head to head, or any single other sort of adjustment that many people use when making their rankings. Schedule strength counts a lot, and margin counts a lot. A close loss against a great team gives a better rating than a close win against a lousy team. Many people object to this, but in terms of predictive value, I consider it the only way to go. These rankings look different than most human polls, and for that matter they look different from most computer polls. That's OK. It's supposed to look different, both because its goals are different, and because it operates differently from other models. The only standard I use to judge it is how accurate its picks are, and so far this year it's been pretty decent, going 151-129 (53.9%) ATS in the regular season, and 18-9 (66.7%) in the bowls for a total of 169-138 (55.0%)

Team Rankings

1 Alabama	31 Wisconsin	61 Fresno State	91 Wyoming
2 Florida	32 Auburn	62 Central Florida	92 Utah State
3 Texas	33 Florida State	63 Duke	93 Nevada-Las Vegas
4 Virginia Tech	34 Utah	64 Purdue	94 Buffalo
5 Texas Christian	35 Rutgers	65 Minnesota	95 Hawaii
6 Boise State	36 Air Force	66 Iowa State	96 Florida Atlantic
7 Ohio State	37 Arizona	67 Southern Mississippi	97 Louisiana-Monroe
8 Nebraska	38 Kentucky	68 Arizona State	98 Colorado State
9 Georgia Tech	39 Mississippi State	69 Northwestern	99 San Diego State
10 Oklahoma	40 Oklahoma State	70 Kansas State	100 Texas-El Paso
11 Cincinnati	41 South Carolina	71 Southern Methodist	101 Arkansas State
12 Penn State	42 Notre Dame	72 Temple	102 Louisiana-Lafayette
13 Oregon	43 Navy	73 Louisiana Tech	103 Florida International
14 Clemson	44 Boston College	74 North Carolina State	104 Kent
15 Louisiana State	45 East Carolina	75 Marshall	105 Toledo
16 Iowa	46 South Florida	76 Michigan	106 Army
17 Miami (Florida)	47 Central Michigan	77 Baylor	107 Western Michigan
18 Pittsburgh	48 Wake Forest	78 Ohio	108 Memphis
19 Arkansas	49 California	79 Colorado	109 North Texas
20 Texas Tech	50 Missouri	80 Bowling Green State	110 New Mexico
21 North Carolina	51 Houston	81 Northern Illinois	111 Ball State
22 Mississippi	52 UCLA	82 Syracuse	112 San Jose State
23 Brigham Young	53 Texas A&M	83 Louisville	113 Akron
24 Southern California	54 Virginia	84 Idaho	114 Washington State
25 Stanford	55 Washington	85 Alabama-Birmingham	115 Miami (Ohio)
26 Connecticut	56 Troy State	86 Indiana	116 Rice
27 Georgia	57 Michigan State	87 Vanderbilt	117 Tulane
28 Oregon State	58 Nevada	88 Maryland	118 New Mexico State
29 Tennessee	59 Middle Tennessee State	89 Tulsa	119 Western Kentucky
30 West Virginia	60 Kansas	90 Illinois	120 Eastern Michigan

Schedule Strength - Top 30 and Bottom 30

1 Mississippi State	91 Southern Mississippi
2 Florida State	92 Hawaii
3 North Carolina	93 New Mexico State
4 Miami (Florida)	94 Tulsa
5 Alabama	95 Southern Methodist
6 South Carolina	96 Louisiana-Monroe
7 Virginia	97 Nevada
8 Georgia Tech	98 Troy State
9 Georgia	99 Boise State
10 Clemson	100 Louisiana-Lafayette
11 Florida	101 Western Kentucky
12 Baylor	102 Idaho
13 Virginia Tech	103 Akron
14 Vanderbilt	104 Arkansas State
15 North Carolina State	105 Florida Atlantic
16 Arkansas	106 Army
17 Oklahoma	107 Buffalo
18 Auburn	108 Bowling Green State
19 Mississippi	109 Eastern Michigan
20 Kentucky	110 Central Michigan
21 Louisiana State	111 Texas-El Paso
22 Arizona	112 Ohio
23 Maryland	113 North Texas
24 Louisville	114 Middle Tennessee State
25 Duke	115 Toledo
26 Wake Forest	116 Ball State
27 Boston College	117 Northern Illinois
28 Oregon	118 Kent
29 Kansas	119 Western Michigan
30 Tennessee	120 Temple

Most vs Least Improved - Top 25 and Bottom 25

1 Northwestern	96 Miami (Ohio)
2 New Mexico	97 Fresno State
3 Arkansas	98 Army
4 Southern Methodist	99 Louisiana-Monroe
5 Mississippi State	100 Akron
6 East Carolina	101 Temple
7 Air Force	102 UCLA
8 Brigham Young	103 Boston College
9 Nevada	104 Duke
10 Georgia	105 Southern California
11 Rice	106 Toledo
12 Alabama-Birmingham	107 Kent
13 Alabama	108 Arizona
14 Syracuse	109 Missouri
15 Tulane	110 Iowa State
16 Auburn	111 Arizona State
17 Mississippi	112 Colorado State
18 Louisiana Tech	113 Arkansas State
19 Rutgers	114 Eastern Michigan
20 Texas A&M	115 Michigan
21 Central Florida	116 Western Michigan
22 Illinois	117 North Texas
23 Wisconsin	118 Northern Illinois
24 Middle Tennessee State	119 Virginia
25 Nevada-Las Vegas	120 Kansas

Home Cooking vs Road Warriors - Top 20 and Bottom 20 Home-Field Factor
This describes how much better a team played at home vs on the road. It's well worth noting that it's neither good nor bad to be high or low on this list; it's good to have an especially strong home-field edge, with a loud crowd and possibly a weather edge, but it's also good to be able to play well on the road. Consequently, you will tend to see most really good teams around the middle of the list, because they do have a strong home-field edge but also are very capable of playing well on the road.

1 Nevada	101 Boise State
2 Troy State	102 Rutgers
3 South Carolina	103 Buffalo
4 Kansas State	104 Western Kentucky
5 Texas A&M	105 Tulsa
6 Auburn	106 Florida
7 Washington	107 New Mexico State
8 Houston	108 Duke
9 Louisiana Tech	109 Kentucky
10 Miami (Florida)	110 Southern California
11 Texas-El Paso	111 Brigham Young
12 Oklahoma	112 Northwestern
13 Clemson	113 Nebraska
14 Southern Mississippi	114 Missouri
15 Arizona	115 Virginia
16 Mississippi	116 Penn State
17 Maryland	117 Ball State
18 Boston College	118 Florida State
19 Northern Illinois	119 Alabama
20 Minnesota	120 Iowa

Conference Rankings - Best to Worst

1 SEC	0.31
2 ACC	0.21
3 Big East	0.17
4 Big 12	0.16
5 Pac-10	0.11
6 Big Ten	0.09
7 Mountain West	-0.03
8 Indep	-0.04
9 WAC	-0.16
10 C-USA	-0.20
11 Sun Belt	-0.31
12 MAC	-0.34

40 Best and 40 Worst Performances

40 Best Games

Rank	Team	Conference	Opponent	Location	Score
1	Alabama	SEC	Florida	NEUTRAL	32-13
2	Texas Tech	Big 12	Nebraska	AWAY	31-10
3	Alabama	SEC	Texas	NEUTRAL	37-21
4	Texas Christian	Mountain West	Brigham Young	AWAY	38-7
5	Florida	SEC	Cincinnati	NEUTRAL	51-24
6	Alabama	SEC	Mississippi	AWAY	22-3
7	Florida	SEC	Kentucky	AWAY	41-7
8	Alabama	SEC	Mississippi State	AWAY	31-3
9	Nebraska	Big 12	Arizona	NEUTRAL	33-0
10	Stanford	Pac-10	Southern California	AWAY	55-21
11	Texas Tech	Big 12	Oklahoma	HOME	41-13
12	Ohio State	Big Ten	Penn State	AWAY	24-7
13	Alabama	SEC	Arkansas	HOME	35-7
14	Virginia Tech	ACC	Miami (Florida)	HOME	31-7
15	Cincinnati	Big East	Rutgers	AWAY	47-15
16	Alabama	SEC	Virginia Tech	NEUTRAL	34-24
17	Texas A&M	Big 12	Texas Tech	AWAY	52-30
18	Texas	Big 12	Oklahoma State	AWAY	41-14
19	Florida State	ACC	Brigham Young	AWAY	54-28
20	Southern California	Pac-10	California	AWAY	30-3
21	Oklahoma	Big 12	Oklahoma State	HOME	27-0
22	Texas	Big 12	Missouri	AWAY	41-7
23	Florida	SEC	Georgia	NEUTRAL	41-17
24	Virginia	ACC	North Carolina	AWAY	16-3
25	Boise State	WAC	Texas Christian	NEUTRAL	17-10
26	Oregon	Pac-10	California	HOME	42-3
27	Florida	SEC	Louisiana State	AWAY	13-3
28	Rutgers	Big East	South Florida	HOME	31-0
29	Iowa	Big Ten	Iowa State	AWAY	35-3
30	Florida	SEC	Florida State	HOME	37-10
31	Oregon	Pac-10	Southern California	HOME	47-20
32	Brigham Young	Mountain West	Oregon State	NEUTRAL	44-20
33	Iowa	Big Ten	Penn State	AWAY	21-10
34	Oklahoma	Big 12	Texas A&M	HOME	65-10
35	Virginia Tech	ACC	Tennessee	NEUTRAL	37-14
36	Florida	SEC	Troy State	HOME	56-6
37	North Carolina	ACC	Virginia Tech	AWAY	20-17
38	Miami (Florida)	ACC	Georgia Tech	HOME	33-17
39	Georgia Tech	ACC	Duke	AWAY	49-10
40	Iowa	Big Ten	Georgia Tech	NEUTRAL	24-14

40 Worst Games

Rank	Team	Conference	Opponent	Location	Score
-1	Washington State	Pac-10	UCLA	HOME	7-43
-2	Akron	MAC	Indiana	HOME	21-38
-3	Rice	C-USA	Navy	HOME	14-63
-4	Wyoming	Mountain West	Colorado	AWAY	0-24
-5	Colorado State	Mountain West	San Diego State	HOME	28-42
-6	Rice	C-USA	Vanderbilt	HOME	17-36
-7	Tulane	C-USA	Rice	AWAY	20-28
-8	Tulane	C-USA	Marshall	HOME	10-31
-9	Western Michigan	MAC	Ball State	HOME	17-22
-10	Texas-El Paso	C-USA	Memphis	AWAY	20-35
-11	Nevada	WAC	Southern Methodist	NEUTRAL	10-45
-12	Ohio	MAC	Kent	HOME	11-20
-13	Florida International	Sun Belt	Toledo	HOME	31-41
-14	New Mexico	Mountain West	New Mexico State	HOME	17-20
-15	New Mexico State	WAC	Fresno State	HOME	3-34
-16	Washington State	Pac-10	Hawaii	HOME	20-38
-17	Miami (Ohio)	MAC	Western Michigan	AWAY	26-48
-18	Western Kentucky	Sun Belt	North Texas	AWAY	49-68
-19	New Mexico	Mountain West	Nevada-Las Vegas	HOME	17-34
-20	Marshall	C-USA	Texas-El Paso	AWAY	21-52
-21	Tulane	C-USA	Central Florida	AWAY	0-49
-22	New Mexico State	WAC	Nevada	HOME	20-63
-23	Tulane	C-USA	Tulsa	HOME	13-37
-24	Western Michigan	MAC	Northern Illinois	AWAY	3-38
-25	Louisiana-Lafayette	Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	HOME	29-51
-26	Ball State	MAC	North Texas	HOME	10-20
-27	Eastern Michigan	MAC	Northern Illinois	AWAY	6-50
-28	Miami (Ohio)	MAC	Buffalo	HOME	17-42
-29	Eastern Michigan	MAC	Toledo	AWAY	21-47
-30	Rice	C-USA	Central Florida	HOME	7-49
-31	Eastern Michigan	MAC	Army	HOME	14-27
-32	Akron	MAC	Temple	HOME	17-56
-33	Western Kentucky	Sun Belt	Florida International	HOME	20-37
-34	San Jose State	WAC	Nevada	HOME	7-62
-35	New Mexico	Mountain West	Tulsa	HOME	10-44
-36	Eastern Michigan	MAC	Western Michigan	HOME	14-35
-37	North Texas	Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	HOME	6-33
-38	Eastern Michigan	MAC	Kent	HOME	6-28
-39	New Mexico State	WAC	Texas-El Paso	HOME	12-38
-40	Toledo	MAC	Western Michigan	HOME	26-58

25 Biggest Head-Scratchers

These were the games that, after all of the games have been played, stick out as especially weird. For instance, if a 20-point underdog wins by 10 early in the year, but then they go 8-4 and the team they upset goes 4-8, well, that's not really so weird. But if a 14-point favorite wins by 35, then ends up 4-8 while the team they beat goes 8-4, then that would stick out as a weird result despite it making sense at the time.

25 Biggest Surprises

Order	Team	Conference	Opponent	Location	Score
1	Texas A&M	Big 12	Texas Tech	AWAY	52-30
2	Southern Methodist	C-USA	Nevada	NEUTRAL	45-10
3	Syracuse	Big East	Rutgers	HOME	31-13
4	Kansas State	Big 12	Texas A&M	HOME	62-14
5	Virginia	ACC	North Carolina	AWAY	16-3
6	Western Michigan	MAC	Toledo	AWAY	58-26
7	Texas Tech	Big 12	Nebraska	AWAY	31-10
8	Stanford	Pac-10	Southern California	AWAY	55-21
9	Texas-El Paso	C-USA	Marshall	HOME	52-21
10	Northwestern	Big Ten	Iowa	AWAY	17-10
11	Texas-El Paso	C-USA	Houston	HOME	58-41
12	Purdue	Big Ten	Ohio State	HOME	26-18
13	Kent	MAC	Ohio	AWAY	20-11
14	Rutgers	Big East	South Florida	HOME	31-0
15	Colorado State	Mountain West	Nevada	HOME	35-20
16	Texas Tech	Big 12	Oklahoma	HOME	41-13
17	Florida State	ACC	Brigham Young	AWAY	54-28
18	Washington	Pac-10	California	HOME	42-10
19	Hawaii	WAC	Navy	HOME	24-17
20	Missouri	Big 12	Kansas State	AWAY	38-12
21	Illinois	Big Ten	Michigan	HOME	38-13
22	Iowa State	Big 12	Nebraska	AWAY	9-7
23	Notre Dame	Indep	Nevada	HOME	35-0
24	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	North Texas	AWAY	33-6
25	Bowling Green State	MAC	Troy State	HOME	31-14

Some other notes about the model's numbers:

1) Just like last year, we had a national champion that was substantially better than everyone else. Take a look at that list of top 40 performances. Of the 13 1-A games Bama played (they also had a AA game, which the model didn't count), they had an amazing SIX make the top 40 list: numbers 1 (32-13 over Florida); 3 (37-21 over Texas); 6 (22-3 @ Miss); 9 (31-3 @ Miss St); 13 (35-7 home vs Arkansas); and 16 (34-24 over Virginia Tech). It's worth noting that Florida also had six (which is why they were 2nd ranked, well above the rest), but even they were generally lower on that list, with only two top 10 performances and the rest below 20th (and they lost pretty convincingly when they played Bama a few weeks ago). The most that ANYONE else on the list had was three top 40 performances (Iowa, whose best was only 29th on the list). There's a decent gap between 1 and 2, and a huge gap between the top two and everyone else, and it's completely deserved.

2) The Big Ten had a nice bowl season (4-3 against a fairly tough slate), and thanks to that the gap has largely closed between them and the #5 league (the Pac-10, thanks to a crummy bowl season). However, the Big Ten is still stuck at 6th, and the reason is that the regular season was so lousy for them, with games like:
Indiana (1-7 B10) getting waxed by 40 at Virginia (2-6 ACC) and nearly losing at home to Western Michigan
NW (5-3 B10) losing at Syracuse (1-6 BE) and almost losing to Eastern Michigan, arguably the worst team in 1-A; also only beat Miami of Ohio (who only has ONE 1-A win) by 10 at home
Minn (3-5 B10) losing at home by 14 to Cal (5-4 Pac-10) and getting taken to OT by Syracuse (1-6 BE)
Ohio St (7-1 B10) losing at home to USC (5-4 Pac-10)
Purdue (4-4 B10) losing at home to Northern Illinois (though at least they had a nice showing @ Oregon)
Illinois (2-6 B10) getting waxed on a neutral field by Mizzou (4-4 B12)
Penn St (6-2 B10) playing NO ONE non-conference
Wisconsin (4-4 B10) getting taken to overtime at home by Fresno
Mich St (4-4 B10) losing at home to Central Michigan

Ultimately, there were too many poor results and too few good ones. Next year may well be better, but this year was very unpleasant for the league, even with a nice ending to it.

3) The ACC is STILL the #2 conference according to the model, even after a slightly sub-par bowl season (3-4). Overall, there are still a boatload of very solid performances against non-SEC OOC opponents, from the aforementioned ass-kicking by UVA over Indy, to VA Tech's win over Nebraska (which got a LOT better after the Holiday Bowl), and convincing win at ECU, to UNC's win at UConn, to Wake's win over Stanford, to FSU's beatdown at BYU, to NC St's win over Pitt, to Miami’s beatdown of USF, and a few more I'm not bothering to mention. Aside from Maryland, the two AA losses, Duke's thrashing at Kansas, and two upset losses by Clemson and Georgia Tech, there's a stunning lack of crappy non-conference performances, especially considering how many solid showings they have. And even in the bowls, they still had a nice upset win by Florida St over West Virginia and an absolute thrashing by Virginia Tech of Tennessee.

Ultimately, I tend to disagree with this result; had the model counted the AA games, for instance, it would have dropped a bit further, and I'm just not sold on the idea that they were really the #2 league. That said, I can't think of any other league I'd definitely have above them (all non-SEC leagues have substantial warts after all), so maybe it's reasonable. Honestly, I'm really not sure.

4) Given the amount of flak I’ve taken at times for having Oklahoma ranked highly (they're STILL not ranked in the final AP Poll), I figured they deserved their own section. No, I don’t think it’s correct, but yes, I do think it’s reasonable and defensible (worth noting: LVSC had them 11th pre-bowl, see: http://www.vegasinsider.com/co...fm/story/936207 ), so it’s not like the model is alone on an island on this one. Anyway, here’s why they’re so high:

They had two EXTREMELY impressive wins, thumpings over OK St and A&M (by 55!); both currently make the model’s list of 40 performances , which puts them in pretty good company. They also barely lost to Miami (on the road) and Texas. Overall, they’re 7-5 against 1-A teams, which doesn’t sound great, but it’s against an absolutely brutal schedule, and they’ve been dominant in their wins and oh so close in their losses (except Tech of course). Yes, they’re been extremely inconsistent, but it fluctuates between mediocre showings and outstanding shows, for the most part, and there’s been a lot of outstanding.

5) The following teams are ranked much higher by the model than the final AP Poll: Virginia Tech (Compu-picks 4th, AP 10), Nebraska (8 vs 14), Oklahoma (10 vs NR), Clemson (14 vs 24), Arkansas (19 vs NR), UNC (21 vs NR). Virginia Tech, Oklahoma (aside from the Tech loss), Nebraska (aside from the Tech loss), Clemson (aside from South Carolina) and Arkansas (aside from Bama) are all teams with very tough schedules, and who have had close losses and blowout wins. The model rewards both types of things, because those types of teams tend to be a lot better than their records.

I could talk all day about how horribly overlooked Virginia Tech has been, but I think it pretty much explains itself. They destroyed Miami, BC, Virginia and Tennessee, they gave Bama a decent game, and their other two losses were both pretty close (and against legitimately good teams). The only reasons their record wasn't gaudier was because their schedule was brutal and some bad luck in close games. They've played at a very high level far more frequently than they've been given credit for, and really flew under the radar this year.

Nebraska (aside from the Tech loss) has been consistently convincing in their wins, and occasionally hugely dominant; also, three of their four losses were by less than a field goal, which was far less of a detriment to their rating than if they had been convincing losses.

UNC's schedule is ranked as one of the toughest, which significantly boosted their ranking. They have yet to play a truly bad 1-A team, and have played a number of very good teams. To be 6-5 against THAT slate is legitimately impressive.

6) The following teams are ranked much lower than the model than the BCS: Iowa (Compu-picks 16th, AP 7th), BYU (23 vs 12), Wisconsin (31 vs 16), Utah (34 vs 18), Central Michigan (47 vs 23).

Iowa had three very nice wins: Iowa St, Penn St, Georgia Tech. And they had two other nice wins: Arizona and Wisconsin. And giving Ohio St all they could handle was a good showing too. Unfortunately, the rest was mediocre to lousy. Losing at home to Northwestern, barely beating an awful Arkansas St team at home, barely beating a bad Michigan team at home (not to mention the ugliness against UNI)... there were really bad performances for a top 25 team, much less a top 10 team. Ultimately, if you choose to ignore the bad and emphasize the good, you can argue top 10, but I think that overall they just aren't a top ten team. The model probably hits them a bit too hard, but the AP is too generous. I think that around 12th, midway between the two points, is probably most reasonable.

BYU has some nice wins (Oklahoma, Oregon St), two really ugly blowout losses at home (Florida St, TCU), and nothing else of particular note. 2-2 against Oklahoma, Oregon St, Florida St and TCU is nice, but hardly a resume that screams top 15. I would consider them solidly overrated based on what they've actually done.

Wisconsin is actually a team that the model dumps on a bit more than it should, because some of their games weirdly went against them, from the flu against Fresno to turnover issues agianst Iowa and Ohio St. That said, a mediocre Fresno team took them to overtime (and got thoroughly screwed on the non-call of roughing the passer in OT), they only beat a bad NIU team by 8 at home, they barely beat Minneosta and Indiana, and the closest thing they had to a signature win was 20-14 over a good but not great Miami team. I'd have them better than 31st myself, but top 20 seems too generous to me.

Utah has beaten virtually nobody (their best wins were Cal and Air Force [OT at home] ), has three losses, and to be honest, I’ve got no clue why they’re ranked even after the bowls, much less before. “Helmet” status isn’t just for BCS schools anymore, I guess.

I'm convinced the AP simply ran out of ideas when they added CMU. Only 2 losses seems nice... until you remember that they're 1-2 against BCS schools (NONE OF WHICH are ranked in the AP top 25 post-bowl), and their win was extremely close. The MAC was horrible again this year, and they simply didn't do anything particularly worth noting. Sorry, but it's true. It's a joke that this team is ranked by anyone, much less by enough voters to actually have them make the final top 25.

7) Boise just lost to TCU, but the model has TCU over them? Why? Ultimately, it's because TCU played a schedule that was far more challenging than Boise's (even after the Fiesta Bowl, their schedule was only ranked 99th). That said, the model may be over-punishing Boise for their awful schedule. This is one of the big things I'm going to try and investigate a bit more during the offseason; next year's model might re-rate the 2009 Broncos a bit better than this year's, though I'm not sure it would be enough to put them over a TCU team that had been fantastic the entire season rather than just two games as Boise had been.

Mr Pac-10's 2009 Blog

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