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2010 5-Year Program Ranking - The Bottom 20
Duke WR Donovan Varner
Duke WR Donovan Varner
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 24, 2010


Starting from the bottom up, here is a detailed look at all 120 football programs in CFN's 2010 Five-Year Program Rankings and Analysis.


Preview 2010 - Bottom 20

CFN Five-Year Program Analysis


2010 CFN Five-Year Program Analysis
- Bottom 20 | No. 81 to 100 | No. 61 to 80
- No. 41 to 60 | No. 21 to 40 | No. 11 to 20
- No. 10 Alabama | No. 9 Penn St | No. 8 Virginia Tech
- No. 7 Georgia | No. 6 LSU | No. 5 Oklahoma
- No. 4 Ohio State | No. 3 Texas | No. 2 Florida | No. 1 USC

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Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being asked to turn things around right away. Five years allow a coach to go through an entire recruiting cycle, get comfortable in the position, and implement everything he'd like to do. With that in mind, we have created our CFN Five-Year Program Analysis (it used to be three years, but we supersized it) highlighting off-the-field factors like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success ends up being all that matters, so that's where the focus lies. One note, the totals for each team might not add up because we have listed the total number of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be scored differently (two home losses against 3-9 teams would be scored as a 3).

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last five years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.37
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.84
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 9.62
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score: 29.25
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.62
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.96
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in a bowl over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Number: 1.25
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.03
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg. Number: 5.02
- Bad Wins: Wins over teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 10.83

- Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and Categories

120. Western Kentucky

2010 Total Score: 1.86
2009 Ranking: 120
Attendance Score: 2.36
APR Score: 6
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 0
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 7.5
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 2
Conf. Score: 0.00
Program Analysis: WKU is still trying to find its way in the world of the Sun Belt and the FBS as it struggled mightily in its first year at the big level. The APR Score is solid and the Attendance is decent, but going 0-12 last year means it’ll be a while before the program is among the living. (The Conference Score only applies to 2009 for the Hilltoppers.)

119. New Mexico State

2010 Total Score: 4.08
2009 Ranking: 117
Attendance Score: 1.58
APR Score: 2
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 8
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 8.5
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 1.25
Program Analysis: Second-year head man DeWayne Walker has one of the toughest gigs in America. The Aggies appeared to have bottomed out over the last two years, but a rough 2009 meant a drop to the near-bottom. As the program tries to crawl out from under the Hal Mumme era, the key is to start winning in conference play after a disastrous last few seasons.

118. North Texas

2010 Total Score: 6.37
2009 Ranking: 116
Attendance Score: 1.70
APR Score: 3
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 8
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 7
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 6
Conf. Score: 1.67
Program Analysis: The once mighty Sun Belt powerhouse keeps on sliding down. As high as 62 in the 2005 rankings after dominating the conference, the Mean Green can’t win in conference play, has a mere eight FBS wins in five years, and keeps on losing to too many mediocre teams. Head coach Todd Dodge has made things interesting, but the wins aren’t there.

117. Florida International

2010 Total Score: 12.29
2009 Ranking: 119
Attendance Score: 1.26
APR Score: 1
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 11
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 3.5
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 2.78
Program Analysis: Mario Cristobal keeps on trying to build up the program, and while it’s been slow going, there have been signs that FIU could eventually become a player in the Sun Belt. The talent level hasn’t been bad (compared to the rest of the Sun Belt), but the wins aren’t following. Not going to class is a big issue with an embarrassing APR Score of 1.

116. Idaho

2010 Total Score: 14.13
2009 Ranking: 118
Attendance Score: 1.38
APR Score: 2
Draft: 3
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 8
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 14.13
Program Analysis: One monster, shocking 2009 season hasn’t been able to overcome all the other issues over the last five years. Head coach Robb Akey has always had his team playing hard, and finally, the wins started to come last year on the way to a bowl game. The needle is pointing up, but 2010 is vital to show that last year wasn’t a fluke. It would also be nice to beat more decent teams with a mere two wins over teams that finished with a winning record.

115. Duke

2010 Total Score: 15.74
2009 Ranking: 113
Attendance Score: 2.24
APR Score: 10
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 8
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 5.5
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 5
Conf. Score: 1.00
Program Analysis: It’s Duke, so the APR Score will always be outstanding. It shows how bad Blue Devil football has been that the overall score is so low even with such a great APR with a mere four ACC wins in five years and way too many Bad Losses. On the plus side, things are looking up, way up, with David Cutcliffe as the head man.

114. Tulane

2010 Total Score: 16.39
2009 Ranking: 110
Attendance Score: 2.14
APR Score: 8
Draft: 3
FBS Wins: 12
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 12
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 2.00
Program Analysis: Head coach Bob Toledo is trying his best to resurrect a program that went 12-0 in 1998. Katrina was a major issue for the team as the 2005 season is still on the books, and understandably, it’s taking a while to rebound. The one-time Conference USA superpower has to start winning in league play again, and then things will start to turn around.

113. Kent State

2010 Total Score: 16.93
2009 Ranking: 114
Attendance Score: 1.18
APR Score: 3
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 15
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 7.5
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 3.25
Program Analysis: KSU seems like it should be higher than this considering the 14 wins are the most of anyone in the bottom 11, but there haven’t been enough good wins and there have been way too many struggles in conference play. The lack of attendance is always going to be a problem, and the APR hasn’t been a positive.

112. Eastern Michigan

2010 Total Score: 17.07
2009 Ranking: 105
Attendance Score: 1.01
APR Score: 4
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 10
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 5
Conf. Score: 2.31
Program Analysis: Going 0-12 doesn’t help the overall score. Ron English’s disaster of a first season has helped EMU take a bigger tumble down the rankings, but it’s not like there have been sniffs of anything positive for a decade. The wins have been hard to come by, and the fans aren’t showing up. The mediocre APR isn’t helping.

111. Utah State

2010 Total Score: 18.57
2009 Ranking: 112
Attendance Score: 1.32
APR Score: 5
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 12
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 4.5
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 2.75
Program Analysis: The Aggies never seemed to generate anything under Brent Guy, and while the first season under Gary Andersen might not have been special, at least it was interesting. The offense became more entertaining and there are signs of possibly being a breakout team like Idaho was last year, but it’ll take something huge to move back up the rankings after being up at 77 in 2004.

110. UNLV

2010 Total Score: 20.24
2009 Ranking: 111
Attendance Score: 2.24
APR Score: 4
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 4.5
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 7
Conf. Score: 2.00
Program Analysis: Mike Sanford never got the Rebels turned around, and now it’ll be up to Bobby Hauck to try to make something positive out of the program that never seems to be able to produce. The mere one Quality Win in five years shows how many problems there have been in Mountain West play, and winning just 20% of conference games have also been an issue. This is a program that should be in the 70s, like it was just a few years ago.

109. UAB

2010 Total Score: 22.19
2009 Ranking: 104
Attendance Score: 1.94
APR Score: 1
Draft: 1
FBS Wins: 16
Quality Wins: 5
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 3.5
Elite Losses: 0
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 3.25
Program Analysis: There was a time when UAB’s ranking was up in the 70s as one of the good mid-level teams in Conference USA. The horrendous APR Score and failure to win more conference games has meant a major drop down the rankings over the last few seasons, and now the team has to try to start winning again without Joe Webb under center.

108. Buffalo

2010 Total Score: 23.44
2009 Ranking: 109
Attendance Score: 1.44
APR Score: 2
Draft: 3
FBS Wins: 19
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Wins: 1
Bad Losses: 5
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 3.75
Program Analysis: Winning the 2007 MAC Championship certainly helped a bit over the last few years after being the lowest ranked program in college football in 2006, but there are still too many bad years on the books. The miserable APR, the lack of attendance, and too many bad losses have kept the overall ranking down. The Bulls should move up over the next few years as the horrible campaigns that came before the title year don’t count in the ranking.

107. Temple

2010 Total Score: 23.71
2009 Ranking: 115
Attendance Score: 1.81
APR Score: 3
Draft: 1
FBS Wins: 19
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 3.5
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 3.40
Program Analysis: Al Golden has worked miracles with one of the most miserable programs in college football over the last several decades. Temple is moving up from 118th in 2006, and the ranking will only go up way, way higher if the team plays as well as expected this year. The Draft Score will change and the Conference Score should go way up, but more from the APR and more good wins are needed to make a gigantic leap up.

106. Army

2010 Total Score: 25.53
2009 Ranking: 102
Attendance Score: 2.98
APR Score: 8
Draft: 1
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 3
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 3.05
Program Analysis: Rich Ellerson has created an excitement around the program that could make Army the new Navy, and the wins should start to come. The 14 FBS wins are among the bottom ten teams over the last five years, but that should change in a big hurry. The great APR and the solid Attendance Score (the highest among the bottom 21 teams) keep the Knights from being on the bottom of the scrap heap, but this is about as low as the ranking should be for a while.

105. ULM

2010 Total Score: 25.88
2009 Ranking: 106
Attendance Score: 1.57
APR Score: 1
Draft: 1
FBS Wins: 21
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 3.5
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 14
Conf. Score: 5.56
Program Analysis: Only Louisiana-Lafayette and Florida Atlantic have a Conference Score as strong as ULM’s among the bottom 24 programs, but the horrific APR and the lack of Quality Wins keep the score low. This is the highest overall ranking since 2004, and while it might still be a bit low, one good season will change that. ULM always appears to be really, really close to turning a corner, but it just hasn’t done it.

104. San Jose State

2010 Total Score: 26.16
2009 Ranking: 108
Attendance Score: 1.66
APR Score: 2
Draft: 6
FBS Wins: 21
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 2
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 18
Conf. Score: 4.00
Program Analysis: The progam was hanging by a thread a few years ago as it was close to being eliminated by the school, but Dick Tomey helped to change things around just enough to make football matter … at least a little bit. The Spartans never kept up the momentum from the strong 2006 season, and now it’ll be up to Mike MacIntyre to try to generate wins on a consistent basis. Boosting the attendance is needed and that comes with more wins.

103. San Diego State

2010 Total Score: 27.09
2009 Ranking: 101
Attendance Score: 2.84
APR Score: 4
Draft: 7
FBS Wins: 16
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 4
Elite Losses: 11
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 3.25
Program Analysis: It seems like the Aztecs should be better, but Chuck Long did absolutely nothing with the program that hasn’t been able to put it all together. Brady Hoke is a terrific head coach and he could be the one who finally makes SDSU a major player in Mountain West action. It might take a little while, though. After the ranking was up in the 80s for years, this is about as low as it’s going to get if Hoke can do what he’s supposed to.

102. SMU

2010 Total Score: 27.85
2009 Ranking: 107
Attendance Score: 1.85
APR Score: 6
Draft: 3
FBS Wins: 18
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 6
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 3.50
Program Analysis: June Jones appears to be the one who’ll finally make the former power a major factor again after struggling for decades. With the Death Penalty well in the rearview mirror, the Mustangs blew up with a bowl season in 2009 and should have the explosive offense to bring more and more wins. The Attendance Score should move up a bit with more victories, and the Conference Score should quickly improve.

101. Louisiana

2010 Total Score: 29.08
2009 Ranking: 103
Attendance Score: 1.78
APR Score: 4
Draft: 1
FBS Wins: 24
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Wins: 0
Bad Losses: 5.5
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 5.56
Program Analysis: The Ragin’ Cajuns have been mired in Sun Belt mediocrity for year after year after year failing to break out of the 100s. The FBS wins are the tied with Wyoming for the most the bottom 22 teams, but there are way too many bad losses that kill the solid Conference Score. Only Florida Atlantic has a better conference winning percentage over the last five years among the bottom 28 teams.