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2010 CFN 5-Year Program Rankings - 11 to 20
Boise State DE Ryan Winterswyk
Boise State DE Ryan Winterswyk
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 24, 2010


Which programs are just barely missing out on being among the elite of the elite? From classroom performance, attendance, players drafted, to wins, wins and more wins, we analyze what each program has done over the last five years and rank accordingly. We analyze it all in CFN's 2010 Five-Year Program Rankings and Analysis.



Preview 2010 - No. 11 to 20

CFN Five-Year Program Analysis


2010 CFN Five-Year Program Analysis
- Bottom 20 | No. 81 to 100 | No. 61 to 80
- No. 41 to 60 | No. 21 to 40 | No. 11 to 20
- No. 10 Alabama | No. 9 Penn St | No. 8 Virginia Tech
- No. 7 Georgia | No. 6 LSU | No. 5 Oklahoma
- No. 4 Ohio State | No. 3 Texas | No. 2 Florida | No. 1 USC

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Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being asked to turn things around right away. Five years allow a coach to go through an entire recruiting cycle, get comfortable in the position, and implement everything he'd like to do. With that in mind, we have created our CFN Five-Year Program Analysis (it used to be three years, but we supersized it) highlighting off-the-field factors like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success ends up being all that matters, so that's where the focus lies. One note, the totals for each team might not add up because we have listed the total number of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be scored differently (two home losses against 3-9 teams would be scored as a 3).

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last five years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.37
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.84
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 9.62
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score: 29.25
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.62
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.96
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in a bowl over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Number: 1.25
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.03
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg. Number: 5.02
- Bad Wins: Wins over teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 10.83

- Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and Categories

20. Missouri

2010 Total Score: 84.46
2009 Ranking: 22
Attendance Score: 5.96
APR Score: 8
Draft: 12
FBS Wins: 41
Quality Wins: 18
Elite Wins: 1
Bad Losses: 0
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 6.00
Program Analysis: There was a little bit of a bump up after the 2004 losing season didn’t count in the equation, and after being as low as 93rd in 2003, the ranking could only go up over the next few seasons. Head coach Gary Pinkel has done a fantastic job as his Tigers have won 60% of their Big 12 games over the last five years, while the 41 FBS wins signals one of the greatest eras in the school’s history. The APR is great and the Quality Wins are impressive, but it would be a plus if there could be more Elite Wins to show that the program has taken another step up.

19. Utah

2010 Total Score: 85.11
2009 Ranking: 17
Attendance Score: 4.36
APR Score: 7
Draft: 14
FBS Wins: 45
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Wins: 3
Bad Losses: 1
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 15
Conf. Score: 7.00
Program Analysis: How good has Utah football been under Kyle Whittingham? The 12-0 2004 season didn’t count towards this year’s rankings and the ranking only fell a few spots. The 70% winning clip in Mountain West play has overcome the low Attendance Score, but more Quality Wins will be a must to move up. With a mediocre 7-5 2005 season not counting next year, the Utes could get up into the top 15 with a little bit of luck.

18. Georgia Tech

2010 Total Score: 85.28
2009 Ranking: 30
Attendance Score: 5.03
APR Score: 8
Draft: 16
FBS Wins: 38
Quality Wins: 18
Elite Wins: 4
Bad Losses: 0
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 14
Conf. Score: 6.75
Program Analysis: Paul Johnson has taken a good program and made it special with his offensive wizardry. The ACC Championship helped the Yellow Jackets get inside the top 20 for the first time since the rankings were created, but this might not be the end to the move up with the 7-5 2005 season off the books next year. The Attendance Score is the second-worst of any BCS team in the top 24, but the APR is great 14 Bad Wins shows that there haven’t been any issues with the lesser teams.

17. Tennessee

2010 Total Score: 87.86
2009 Ranking: 12
Attendance Score: 10.36
APR Score: 5
Draft: 21
FBS Wins: 36
Quality Wins: 18
Elite Wins: 2.5
Bad Losses: 0
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 7
Conf. Score: 5.25
Program Analysis: Considering the 5-6 2005 season is a part of the mix, the slide down the rankings isn’t all that bad. It’s going to take a while before Derek Dooley can get the program turned around (if he’s really the one who’s going to do it), but thre are just enough good scores to keep the score relatively decent. The Attendance Score is the fourth best behind Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State, and the Draft Score is always fantastic. However, winning just 53% of SEC games is a problem, ranking the lowest among anyone in the top 27.

16. Wisconsin

2010 Total Score: 88.64
2009 Ranking: 16
Attendance Score: 8.14
APR Score: 9
Draft: 16
FBS Wins: 44
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Wins: 1
Bad Losses: 1
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 13
Conf. Score: 6.25
Program Analysis: The Badgers have been able to keep on producing after Bret Bielema took over for Barry Alvarez, but they haven’t beaten too many teams of not. The 15 Quality Wins are tied for the fewest among the top 26 teams, and the 13 Bad Wins shows how many layups there have been, but 44 FBS wins are solid by any measure. Bielema’s team needs to play up to its experience or it’ll fall down the rankings with the 10-3 2005 season, and lone Elite Win coming in the bowl game against Auburn, coming off the equation. The Bad Loss was a gag against Michigan in 2007.

15. Boston College

2010 Total Score: 91.19
2009 Ranking: 14
Attendance Score: 3.94
APR Score: 8
Draft: 11
FBS Wins: 43
Quality Wins: 24
Elite Wins: 3
Bad Losses: 1
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 6.50
Program Analysis: The loss of head coach Tom O’Brien didn’t exactly kill the program. The Attendance Score is the worst of any BCS team in the top 36, but the APR is great, the 43 FBS wins are excellent, and the 24 Quality Wins are the most of anyone outside of the top eight. The numbers are solid across the board, but it’ll take a big year to stay up this high with a 9-3 2005 not counting next year. The 2006 Bad Loss to NC State will stay around for a while.

14. Oregon

2010 Total Score: 92.90
2009 Ranking: 26
Attendance Score: 5.85
APR Score: 5
Draft: 19
FBS Wins: 44
Quality Wins: 21
Elite Wins: 1
Bad Losses: 0
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 7.05
Program Analysis: After bottoming out at 53rd in 2005, Oregon moved up in a big way after a lousy 2004 stopped counting. However, the 10-2 2005 season won’t count next year. Chip Kelly overcame a disaster at the first part of last year to lead the Ducks to the Rose Bowl, and with an impressive 44 FBS wins and a 71% run in Pac 10 play, there’s a chance to go to a few more in the near future. The APR needs to improve and the Attendance Score will be an issue, but everything will be fine as long as the wins keep coming.

13. TCU

2010 Total Score: 93.99
2009 Ranking: 25
Attendance Score: 3.24
APR Score: 8
Draft: 13
FBS Wins: 50
Quality Wins: 18
Elite Wins: 2.5
Bad Losses: 0
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 15
Conf. Score: 8.25
Program Analysis: After the 5-6 2004 season stopped counting, the ranking shot through the roof. TCU was hovering around 25 for years, and now it’s making a big push to be in the top ten with a fantastic run under head coach Gary Patterson. Blowing up the bad teams in the Mountain West makes things easier, and the APR is great, but the bad Attendance Score and the lack of Quality Wins, tied for the fewest of anyone in the top 15, puts a ceiling on the ranking. The 50 FBS wins are the most of anyone outside of the top 11 and are the sixth-most overall.

12. West Virginia

2010 Total Score: 96.78
2009 Ranking: 15
Attendance Score: 5.82
APR Score: 7
Draft: 8
FBS Wins: 47
Quality Wins: 23
Elite Wins: 4
Bad Losses: 0
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 7.71
Program Analysis: After ranking 59th in 2003, the Mountaineers have made a steady climb up. Yes, WVU fans, Rich Rodriguez had a lot to do with this as the team is the highest it has ever been, but the 8-4 2004 season won’t count next year. The bar has been set so high that even though Bill Stewart has done a good job, the pressure is on to do more. Winning 77% of Big East games is impressive and the APR is decent, but the Draft Score is surprisingly low tied for the worst of anyone in the top 21.

11. Boise State

2010 Total Score: 99.87
2009 Ranking: 11
Attendance Score: 3.12
APR Score: 9
Draft: 8
FBS Wins: 53
Quality Wins: 22
Elite Wins: 3.5
Bad Losses: 0
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 19
Conf. Score: 9.50
Program Analysis: With 53 FBS wins over the last five years, the most of anyone outside of the top four, and the 95% winning percentage in WAC play, it seems like Boise State should be higher, but he 11-1 2004 season didn’t count this year and the Attendance and Draft Scores continue to be a problem. Getting to beat up on the WAC has helped with 19 Bad Wins; by far the most of anyone in the nation (Rutgers is second with 16). BSU is one of only eight teams with a higher Elite Win Score than Elite Loss. Basically, the Broncos beat everyone in their path, and their ranking could go up in a big way if the 2010 season goes as planned.