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2010 CFN Five-Year Program Rankings

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 26, 2010


USC was far and away the No. 1 program in college football for years, but now the margin is paper thin. No one has sent more players to the NFL over the last five years, and no one has won more FBS games. Can the Trojans hang on for another year? Check out CFN's 2010 Five-Year Program Rankings and Analysis.


Preview 2010 - No. 1 USC

CFN Five-Year Program Analysis


2010 CFN Five-Year Program Analysis
- Bottom 20 | No. 81 to 100 | No. 61 to 80
- No. 41 to 60 | No. 21 to 40 | No. 11 to 20
- No. 10 Alabama | No. 9 Penn St | No. 8 Virginia Tech
- No. 7 Georgia | No. 6 LSU | No. 5 Oklahoma
- No. 4 Ohio State | No. 3 Texas | No. 2 Florida | No. 1 USC

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Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being asked to turn things around right away. Five years allow a coach to go through an entire recruiting cycle, get comfortable in the position, and implement everything he'd like to do. With that in mind, we have created our CFN Five-Year Program Analysis (it used to be three years, but we supersized it) highlighting off-the-field factors like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success ends up being all that matters, so that's where the focus lies. One note, the totals for each team might not add up because we have listed the total number of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be scored differently (two home losses against 3-9 teams would be scored as a 3).

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last five years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.37
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.84
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 9.62
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score: 29.25
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.62
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.96
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in a bowl over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Number: 1.25
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.03
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg. Number: 5.02
- Bad Wins: Wins over teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 10.83

- Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and Categories

1. USC

2010 Total Score: 135.78
2009 Ranking: 1

Program Analysis: By the absolute slimmest of margins, USC maintains its hold on the top spot in the CFN Five Year Program Rankings … for one more year.

The bowl ban, the loss of scholarships, and the problems stemming from the Reggie Bush incident and the end of the Pete Carroll regime will mean and almost certain tumble for the program that not only held the top spot since 2005, but did so with a ten-mile wide margin. One mediocre 9-4 season hurt the overall cause, but this is still a superpower of a program, sanctions and all, that should be able to come back roaring very, very quickly.

The culture of winning will still be in place under new athletic director Pat Haden and new head coach Lane Kiffin, and the recruiting effort will still be peerless with some of the best in the game going out to grab the young talents. USC is still a great place to go if you want to become a pro, the weather is still great, the girls are still at another level, and it’s still USC; it’ll be in the hunt for big things in three years.

For now, the lack of Quality Wins compared to Florida and Texas are a problem in the rankings, but there’s still no one better in the really, really big game. The lone Elite Loss came to Texas in the 2006 Rose Bowl, and hasn’t lost a game to an Elite team (one that finished with two losses or fewer) since. The issue under Carroll, and one that has to be changed in a hurry, is getting the team to play up to its talent level each and every week. Considering the Draft Score of 44 is a ridiculously whopping 13 points higher than anyone else, there was no excuse to not have a national title over the last five seasons. Now, the team will still be among the most talented in college football, but the motivation has to be there to show it with nothing at the end of the rainbow to shoot for.

Attendance Score: 8.83
2005: 90,812
2006: 91,480
2007: 87,476
2008: 86,793
2009: 84,799

APR Score: 8

Draft: 44
2006: RB Reggie Bush, QB Matt Leinart, OT Winston Justice, OG Deuce Latui, RB LenDale White, DE Frostee Rucker, TE Dominique Byrd, DB Darnell Bing, RB David Kirtman, DT LaJuan Ramsey, OG Fred Matua
2007: WR Dwayne Jarrett, WR Steve Smith, C Ryan Kalil, LB Dallas Sartz, LB Oscar Lua
2008: DT Sedrick Ellis, LB Keith Rivers, OT Sam Baker, DE Lawrence Jackson, OG Chilo Rachal, TE Fred Davis, DB Terrell Thomas, QB John David Booty, LB Thomas Williams, RB Chauncey Washington
2009: QB Mark Sanchez, LB Brian Cushing, LB Clay Matthews Jr., LB Rey Maualuga, DT Fili Moala, WR Patrick Turner, LB Kaluka Maiava, DE Kyle Moore, PK David Buehler, DB Cary Harris, DB Kevin Ellison
2010: S Taylor Mays, OT Charles Brown, WR Damian Williams, CB Kevin Thomas, DE Everson Griffin, RB Joe McKnight, TE Anthony McCoy

FBS Wins: 55

Quality Wins: 28
2005: at Oregon, at Arizona State, at Notre Dame, at California, Fresno State, UCLA
2006: at Arkansas, Nebraska, Arizona State, Oregon, California, Notre Dame, Michigan (Rose Bowl)
2007: Oregon State, at California, at Arizona State, Illinois (Rose Bowl)
2008: Ohio State, Oregon, at Arizona, California, Notre Dame, Penn State (Rose Bowl)
2009: at Ohio State, at California, Oregon, State, UCLA, Boston College (Emerald Bowl)

Elite Wins: 8
2005: at Oregon, at Notre Dame, UCLA
2006: Michigan (Rose Bowl)
2007: at Arizona State
2008: Penn State (Rose Bowl)
2009: at Ohio State

Bad Losses: 0

Elite Losses: 1
2005: Texas (Rose Bowl)

Bad Wins: 9
2005: Arizona, at Washington
2006: at Stanford
2007: Idaho, at Notre Dame
2008: at Washington State, Washington
2009: San Jose State, Washington State

Conf. Score: 7.95
2005: 8-0
2006: 7-2
2007: 7-2
2008: 8-1
2009: 5-4