2010 Pac 10 Fearless Predictions
Week 1 ... Sept. 4 Games
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Week 1, Part
2 ... Washington at BYU, & More
GAME OF THE WEEK
Oregon State (0-0) vs. TCU (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:45 ET, ESPN
Here’s The Deal … As the hunter, TCU has performed remarkably well during Gary Patterson’s nine seasons in Fort Worth. As the hunted, it’s about to enter uncharted waters. Fresh off their first-ever BCS bowl appearance, the Horned Frogs are No. 6 in the AP poll, their highest preseason ranking in school history. Having eclipsed new milestones in the past year, they want to prove they belong in the national discussion on a perennial basis. Since the non-conference schedule is so soft, facing Oregon State in Arlington could be TCU’s best chance all year to make a bold statement. The Beavers, too, will begin the year ranked, starting just inside the Top 25. They’ve been painfully close to their own BCS berth the last two years, getting denied the Rose Bowl with losses to rival Oregon. Often one to exceed expectations, Oregon State again has its sights set on a Pac-10 crown. Wannabe head coaches ought to pay special attention to this one since Patterson and Mike Riley are two of the best at taking average high school recruits and transforming them into pro prospects.
Why Oregon State Might Win: In Corvallis, it all begins with the Rodgers brothers—RB Jacquizz and WR James—who’ll be showcasing their dynamite skills in their home state of Texas. The only thing tougher than containing these siblings is trying to do so on a fast surface and early in the year, before the hits have had a chance to accumulate. They’ll be operating behind a physical line led by T Michael Philipp and C Alex Linnenkohl, who can drive block opponents into submission. The Horned Frogs will be breaking in a pair of new cornerbacks, which could also create opportunities in the passing game for WR Darrell Catchings and playmaking H-back Joe Halahuni. On defense, DT Stephen Paea is a force of nature, with the strength and quickness to completely disrupt the opponent’s gameplan.
Why TCU Might Win: Paea is a beast, but he doesn’t have much support, which will allow the Frogs to double him constantly. They’ve also got a terrific front wall, headed by hulking T Marcus Cannon and C Jake Kirkpatrick. With few worries about the Beavers’ outside rushers, QB Andy Dalton will have the time he needs to spread the ball around to his myriad weapons. From backs Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley to the return of last year’s top four receivers, TCU will test an Oregon State defense that’s breaking in new linebackers and has had problems defending the pass in the red zone. Yeah, the Frogs lost some key parts on defense, but Patterson always has this unit ready, and there’s star potential at each level, with DE Wayne Daniels, LB Tank Carder, and S Tejay Johnson.
What To Watch Out For: TCU has Dalton under center. Oregon State? Ryan Katz, who’ll be starting his first career game under extreme circumstances. The staff loves his poise and potential, but this is going to be a unique circumstance, facing an aggressive Frog defense in front of a packed house in Texas. He’s just a sophomore, so don’t read too much into his debut ... unless, of course, he plays lights out in a Beaver upset.
What Will Happen: As good as Oregon State has been under Riley, it’s been a traditional slow starter, losing at least two games in each of the last six Septembers. That trend will continue Saturday. The Beavers are good, but not as good as they’ll be in November, when Katz has more reps under his belt and the defense has mined some support for Paea in the front seven. TCU is better positioned for this kind of opener, boasting few weaknesses on either side of the ball. The Frogs will ride a big night from Dalton, who’ll make an early case for national honors.
CFN Prediction: TCU 27 … Oregon State 21 … Line: TCU -11.5
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USC (0-0) at Hawaii (0-0) Sept. 2, 11:00 ET, ESPN
Here’s The Deal … Yup, USC is still playing games this season. After all that’s happened away from the field to the Trojans this offseason, it’s easy to forget that there are still 13 games to be played on the schedule. Exactly 13 games since the school won’t be eligible for the postseason for the next two years. A visit to the islands, an inverse bowl game of sorts, marks the debut of Lane Kiffin as Troy’s leader and the first chance to gauge the motivation of a suddenly deflated program. For Hawaii, it’s a rare chance to host a nationally-recognized opponent not named Boise State. The Warriors are trying to bounce back from their own bowl-less postseason, just the second time that’s happened in the last eight years. It shakes out as a pivotal season for third-year coach Greg McMackin, who’s done little to build on the success of June Jones.
Why USC Might Win: While the Trojans have the obvious edge in talent and depth, it’ll be most evident in the trenches. The retooled Hawaii offensive line, which has just one returning starter, will be no match for the USC front wall, especially the inside-outside combo of Jurrell Casey and Armond Armstead, respectively. Casey, in particular, might spend half the night in the Warrior backfield if he’s not doubled. On offense, the Trojans can flex their muscles with C Kris O’Dowd and T Tyron Smith, who’ll help pave the way for
new starting running backs Marc Tyler, who won the
gig over Allen Bradford, to be the game’s offensive MVP.
Why Hawaii Might Win: To have a chance in this type of game, the Warriors will need to open up the passing game and test the completely reconfigured USC secondary. It’s a good thing QB Bryant Moniz has returned from a personal leave, where a scholarship is waiting for the former walk-on. He’s capable of building on a solid debut as the starter, with help from a dangerous collection of receivers. Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares combined for 172 receptions in 2009, and Rodney Bradley caught five touchdown passes in six games before being lost to a broken leg.
What To Watch Out For: In an otherwise miserable offseason in Los Angeles, senior CB Shareece Wright has been Troy’s flower in the desert. A study in perseverance, he’s overcome an injury and academic headaches over the last two years to position himself to be an NFL scout magnet this fall. He’s played as well as any Trojan defender this offseason, and should be avoided at all costs by Moniz on Thursday.
What Will Happen: While USC is a markedly better team than Hawaii, everyone wants to know how much intensity the Trojans will bring to this road trip. There’ll be enough to make the game lopsided by the middle of the second quarter. With
Tyler running over Warrior defenders and Matt Barkley firing strikes to WR Ronald Johnson and TE Jordan Cameron, they’ll make some much-needed headlines for something other than off-field headaches.
CFN Prediction: USC 41 … Hawaii 13 … Line: USC -21
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Arizona (0-0) at Toledo (0-0) Sept. 3, 8:00 ET, ESPN
Here’s The Deal … It’s been a decade since the EZ Pass lane to Pasadena has been this uncongested. Arizona is one of a gaggle of programs hoping to take advantage this fall. It took a few years of building under Mike Stoops, but the Wildcats have achieved momentum, posting back-to-back eight-win seasons. The goal entering 2010 is to avoid becoming content with December bowl games and inch closer to the school’s first-ever trip to the Rose Bowl. It’s Year 2 for Toledo head coach Tim Beckman, whose goal of immediately transforming the Rockets into MAC contenders fell a few games short in 2009. There are issues on both sides of the ball, but also a golden opportunity to host—and shock—a Pac-10 opponent in front of a primetime national audience. This is the kind of game that can turbo charge Beckman’s vision for the future.
Why Arizona Might Win: As Toledo continues its massive rebuilding project on defense, this is not the opponent it wants to see on the opening weekend. The Wildcats have a diverse attack, a returning quarterback, and enough size and speed to run circles around the Rockets. Nick Foles is back for his second year behind center, and a healthy Nic Grigsby will provide the yards on the ground. Toledo’s bread-and-butter passing game might sputter, with unproven Austin Dantin set to take over at quarterback. He’ll have the dual-concern of trying to avoid all-star CB Trevin Wade and hard-charging ends Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed when he drops back to pass.
Why Toledo Might Win: For better or worse, the Rockets will lean heavily on the offense throughout the year. If Dantin can somehow pick up where Aaron Opelt left off in 2009, he’ll have a nice supporting cast to help him through the rough patches. WR Eric Page is an emerging MAC star after just one season and there’s good depth in the backfield. C Kevin Kowalski and the interior of the offensive line should be able to get a push on an Arizona defense that’s going to be noticeably green at tackle and at linebacker.
What To Watch Out For: While Toledo has a veteran offensive line, it’ll have its hands full on Friday night. In Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed, Arizona boasts one of the Pac-10’s most relentless tandems at defensive end. Elmore was third in the Pac-10 in sacks, and Reed is healthy again after being saddled with injuries throughout the year. As often as the Rockets will throw it, the seniors will get lots of chances to turn pressures into forced throws and turnovers.
What Will Happen: You always have to be extra careful when your first game is in a different time zone at an opponent with something to prove. Toledo and the Glass Bowl will be fired up, but can it last beyond the first quarter? Arizona possesses too much offensive firepower and muscle for a Rocket defense that doesn’t have enough stoppers after LB Archie Donald.
CFN Prediction: Arizona 38 … Toledo 20 … Line: Arizona -15.5
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UCLA (0-0) at Kansas State (0-0) Sept. 4, 3:30 ET, ABC
Here’s The Deal … UCLA and Kansas State hook up for a second straight September in a home-and-home series that has the Bruins making their first-ever trek to Manhattan. This could be a watershed season in Westwood for Rick Neuheisel, who spent his first two years going 11-14 and building up the overall talent pool. Considering his last few recruiting classes and the problems being faced by USC across town, another 7-6 season that ends in an EagleBank Bowl equivalent will be labeled a disappointment. All things considered, Bill Snyder was better than expected in his return to the sidelines for Kansas State, breaking even and darn near stealing the Big 12 North. Like this week’s opponent, the Wildcats are going to need much more consistency from the quarterback position in order to climb another rung in the conference hierarchy.
Why UCLA Might Win: Even without some stars from a year ago, the Bruin defense has a chance to be stout this fall. There’s All-American potential with LB Akeem Ayers and FS Rahim Moore, and a wave of talented young athletes just itching for an opportunity to contribute on the two-deep. In Kansas State, they’ll be facing a one-trick offense that’ll sputter in the passing game as it searches for a capable quarterback and receivers. In an evenly-matched game, UCLA has a huge edge on special teams with the all-star combination of PK Kai Forbath and P Jeff Locke.
Why Kansas State Might Win: There’s one superstar in this game capable of completely taking it over. And he’ll be wearing purple. Wildcat Daniel Thomas is a legitimate pro-caliber back, with the power to wear down opposing defenses, especially in warm weather. He’ll be the workhorse who softens a Bruin D that has questionable tackles and will be soft in the middle. UCLA’s line problems don’t stop on defense. The offensive line is also young and inconsistent, an encouraging sign for disruptive end Brandon Harold, who’s playing his first game since last September’s season-ending knee injury.
What To Watch Out For: No single player holds the fate of the Bruins in his hands more than sophomore QB Kevin Prince. Predictably sporadic in his first year under center, the staff is hoping he can stay healthy and begin maximizing all of his potential. He’s not alone in this process, but no one will be carrying more weight for an offense that desperately needs a cover boy.
What Will Happen: This has all the markings of a sloppy game that gets dominated by the special teams units. Advantage UCLA. Neither team will produce a lot of offense, and turnovers will be common, but when the Bruins do drive, Forbath will cap it with a long field goal. It’ll be the difference they need to get out of Kansas with an important road victory.
CFN Prediction: UCLA 23 … Kansas State 17 … Line: UCLA -2
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New Mexico (0-0) at Oregon (0-0) Sept. 4, 3:30 ET
Here’s The Deal … It’s about time. After enduring a long offseason that was filled with all kinds of distractions, Oregon is tickled just to be getting back on the field. Despite losing QB Jeremiah Masoli to a dismissal, the Ducks are still considered the slight favorites to repeat as Pac-10 champions, a quest that’ll begin with a few new faces in key places. After proving it can tune out the noise and still get to the Rose Bowl, the program is on a similar mission in 2010. New Mexico is looking for a do-over after careening to 1-11 in Mike Locksley’s debut in Albuquerque. With an only-way-is-up attitude, the Lobos are seeking a fresh start with a wicked early schedule that should have them battle-tested by the second half of the year.
Why New Mexico Might Win: Although the Lobos gave up too many big plays on defense last season, they did develop some stalwarts in the front seven who’ll continue to blossom this fall. With Johnathan Rainey, Jaymar Latchison, and Illinois transfer Reggie Ellis up front, and LB Carmen Messina hitting everything that moves, New Mexico has a fighter’s chance against that rugged Oregon offensive line. When this was scheduled, the Lobos feared having to contain Masoli and RB LaMichael James, but the latter is serving a one-game suspension and the latter is gone.
Why Oregon Might Win: If the feeble New Mexico offense is going to show signs of life, it’s not going to happen this week. While the Ducks will allow yards, Nick Aliotti has constructed another aggressive, opportunistic defense that will force the Lobos into mistakes. Players, such as DE Kenny Rowe and linebackers Casey Matthews and Spencer Paysinger, cover a lot of ground and are playmakers. Plus, the veteran secondary packs a punch and returns all four of last year’s starters. Yeah, the backfield that faced Ohio State in Pasadena is different, but in Chip Kelly’s prolific offense, it just means that newly-minted QB Darron Thomas and speedy RB Kenjon Barner will pick up the slack.
What To Watch Out For: When Oregon has the ball, the battle at the point of attack is going to be a good one. The Lobos have an underappreciated defensive line with a few potential NFL players in Rainey and Latchison, not to mention tackling machine linebacker Carmen Messina, but the Ducks believe this year’s starting five up front could be among the best in school history. If New Mexico can’t get a steady push up front, the Oregon ballcarriers are going to be navigating its secondary in the blink of an eye.
What Will Happen: Although New Mexico is going to be better in Locksley’s second season, the opener will look an awful lot like last year’s routs. In Oregon’s plug-and-play spread-option, there are enough quality athletes in the backfield to overcome losses and pick up where it left last season. After some early jitters, Costa will settle down and Barner will make a case for more reps even after James returns.
CFN Prediction: Oregon 45 … New Mexico 13 … Line: Oregon -34
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