Tuesday Question ... August 31
Pick the Season
Pete
Fiutak
Q: Make a call ...
A: Who will win the ...
ACC - Miami
It's going to be a dogfight down to the finish with
North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech all
in the Coastal mix, and Florida State and Boston
College battling it out in the Atlantic. The Canes
will come out as the survivor to finally win the
ACC title.
Big 12 - Oklahoma
Much will be made about the Texas-Nebraska battle
in Lincoln, but it'll be the Sooners that find
their way to Tempe by beating the Longhorns in the
Red River Rivalry and the Big Red in the Big 12
Championship. However, OU will lose at Texas A&M
and will be just flaky enough to lose at Missouri
to miss out on a national title shot.
Big East - Pitt
It'll come down to the Backyard Brawl between Pitt
and West Virginia, and finally, FINALLY
under Dave Wannstedt, the program will come up with
a really big win at the right time (at least one
that benefits the Panthers, unlike the 2007 win
over the Mountaineers).
Big Ten - Ohio State
The Buckeyes will lose at Wisconsin but will beat
Iowa in Iowa City. However, the Badgers will blow
it somewhere along the way either at Michigan or at
Iowa, while OSU will run the table the rest of the
way.
Pac 10 - USC
USC's problem isn't talent (at least not yet), it's
motivation, and Lane and company will do a great
job of selling the team on the idea that winning
the Pac 10 title is everything. Bowl schmowl;
screwing up the league with a championship will be
just as sweet.
SEC - Georgia
I'm going all in on the Bulldogs. I'm not sold that
Bama can repeat with so many huge changes on the
defensive side, while the Dawgs have the right
schedule and the right season to get back to the
title game. However, two conference losses will
mean the SEC is left out of the national
championship since Vince Young led Texas to the
2005 title over USC.
Heisman - Case Keenum, QB Houston
Mark Ingram won't have the stats, but he could be
more valuable than last year. Terrelle Pryor will
come close to winning, but he won't be the only
reason Ohio State is great. Keenum didn't get a
sniff of the Heisman last year, but his stats will
be out of this world as he blows the NCAA record
book out of the water as the greatest college
passer (at least statistically) of all-time.
National Championship - Ohio State over TCU
The one-loss Buckeyes will get by the unbeaten
Horned Frogs, and everyone will still wish the Big
Ten champion could get a shot at the SEC champion.
In an alternate universe, where I actually have a
pair, I pick Georgia over Nebraska (with the
Huskers beating the Sooners in the Big 12 title
game).
The Biggest Disappointment Will Be ...
North Carolina.
The NCAA will kill the fun. If everyone was on the
field at the same time, the UNC defense would be
one of the greats of all-time, but I can't help but
think that all the agent and academic issues are
going to be a wee bit of a distraction.
The Biggest Surprise Will Be ... Georgia
Everyone is talking Alabama and Florida, but the
Dawgs will keep on winning (and doing it ugly) on
their way to a huge season. Aaron Murray will be
just fine.
The Ten BCS Teams Will Be ... BCS
Championship - Ohio State vs. TCU
Rose - Iowa vs. Oregon State
Don't forget, if the Big Ten champion is in the
title game, an eligible non-BCS team gets in here.
If it's Ohio State in the title game (or Iowa, or
Wisconsin), and TCU or Boise State are eligible
(but don't go to the national title game), the Rose
Bowl will look different than expected.
Fiesta - Oklahoma vs. Alabama
This will be the one everyone wants to watch. Would
you be upset in any way if this was the BCS
Championship matchup and not for the Fiesta?
Sugar - Georgia vs. Pitt
Dan Marino will connect with John Brown on a
miraculous last second bomb to deny Herschel Walker
and the Dawgs a huge bowl win.
Orange - Miami vs. Nebraska
Even though the Huskers will lose the Big 12 title
game, the fans will throw oranges on the field as a
nod to the old Big 8 days.
Richard
Cirminiello
Q: Make a call …
Who will win the …
- ACC – Florida State. The Seminoles have a clearer path to Charlotte than their Coastal Division rivals and a quarterback set to become a nationally-known product. Christian Ponder is poised for a huge final year that really catapults the offense to a new level. If the defense can make even modest strides under Mark Stoops, Florida State will be markedly better overall and once again among the ACC elite.
- Big 12 – Texas. The ‘Horns won’t be as potent as in recent years, but I’m sold that it’s only a matter of time before Garrett Gilbert evolves into one of the best young quarterbacks in the country. In a Big 12 often dominated by the passing game, few will throw with much success on Texas, giving it an edge on Oklahoma in the South. Although I have a healthy respect for what Bo Pelini is doing in Lincoln, there are still too many questions at quarterback.
- Big East – West Virginia. While I understand why Pitt is the favorite entering the season, I also feel the Mountaineers are getting somewhat overlooked. They’ve got the league’s best defense, RB Noel Devine back for his senior year, and a typically physical offensive line. Sure, QB Geno Smith is just a true sophomore, but who has a proven veteran behind center in the Big East? Maybe Cincinnati with Zach Collaros, but after him, there are loads of youth and question marks.
- Big Ten – Ohio State. Although the Buckeyes have ruled the conference under Jim Tressel and have the most talent, another league title is not a certainty. Iowa and Wisconsin have terrific programs, and both will host Ohio State. That said, the Hawkeyes and Badgers have a tendency to be flat when expectations are high, and the Bucks are the closest thing to a complete team in the Big 10.
- Pac 10 – Oregon. Naturally, there’d be less hesitation had Jeremiah Masoli not been banished from Eugene. However, haven’t we all learned our lesson about Chip Kelly and his ability to transform young quarterbacks? The Ducks won’t be as incendiary, but it will be fine, especially with LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner in the backfield. Plus, the front wall figures to be among the best in the conference. Pay special attention to Washington, which will prove worthy of all of the hype it’s received in the offseason.
- SEC – Alabama. Nick Saban is back. Mark Ingram is back. The Tide will once again roll. If the defense takes some time to adjust to a bunch of new starters, the offense will pick up the slack with a fantastic ground and veteran QB Greg McElroy, who looked good in the spring and summer. There’s enough of a foundation for the defense to be surly in short time, and the program has the confidence and right attitude to survive a rugged SEC West.
- Heisman – Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor. If he can build on his Rose Bowl performance, as many believe he will, it could be his time to pose. He’s on the right program from an exposure standpoint, and there’ll be a slew of opportunities to make statements and highlight reel runs in meaningful games. By already stating he’ll be back in 2011, he’s made a subtle, yet important, impact on a swath of voters around the country.
- National Championship – Alabama over Ohio State. It promises to be an interesting year from wire-to-wire, with a strong likelihood that a handful of one-loss teams are left fighting in December for Glendale. The longer the Crimson Tide stays in the hunt, the harder it’ll be to take it down. And in a one-game scenario for the SEC and national title, few coaches are better than Nick Saban. Boise State is a legit contender, by the way. If the Broncos can get out of September unblemished, they’ll become the story of 2010 for the next two months.
- The Biggest Disappointment will be … Nebraska. Don’t read me wrong. I love everything about the job being done by Bo Pelini and his staff, but top 10? I just feel that’s a bit of a reach for a program that has so many question marks on offense. And while the defense will be plenty stout, there’s no overstating how much Ndamukong Suh will be missed in the middle of the line. It’s not a long-term indictment of the Huskers, but for this one year, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Missouri rises up and takes the Big 12 North.
- The Biggest Surprise will be … Washington. It’s not as if the Huskies are a well-kept secret heading into opening day, but most assume an emergence means six wins and a second-rate bowl game. Uh-uh. U-Dub is much better than that benchmark and is capable of exploding into the postseason with eight or nine wins. The schedule is going to be tough, but almost everyone is back, including star QB Jake Locker, and the young staff will benefit from a full year of experience. Washington isn’t as far from the top of the Pac-10 as recent history might indicate.
- The Ten BCS Teams will be ... Florida State, Texas, West Virginia, Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama, Iowa, Florida, Oklahoma, and Boise State. Although you never know, I don’t see the ACC, Big East, or Pac-10 producing an at-large candidate. TCU might go unbeaten and still get denied because of a flimsy non-conference schedule and fear of a repeat of last year’s Fiesta Bowl performance.
Matt Zemek
Q: Make a call ....
Big East Champion: Pittsburgh – The Panthers don’t have to have a dynamic quarterback, just a guy who can get out of the way, let Dion Lewis run for a ton of yards, and give Jonathan Baldwin the ability to grab jump balls. A new signal caller shouldn’t deter this program from finally snagging the conference crown that’s proven to be so maddeningly elusive over the years. Connecticut gets Pittsburgh at home and will mount a strong challenge, but coach Dave Wannstedt’s team has too many weapons. UConn should finish second, with West Virginia coming in third and Cincinnati fourth. Butch Jones has a lot to prove this season, and until one gets a sense that he wasn’t just riding Dan LeFevour’s coattails at Central Michigan, a little bit of skepticism is required in the Queen City. Brian Kelly was also a special coach, as the blessed folks at Notre Dame are likely to discover in a few years.
ACC Champion: Virginia Tech – In a league where the Coastal Division still reigns supreme, it’s really as simple as this: Virginia Tech gets Georgia Tech at home. The Hokies and Jackets traded home wins the last two years in their head-to-head series, and that’s what decided the ACC title in both 2008 and 2009. North Carolina is a mess on multiple levels, and Jacory Harris needs to show that he can be a September 2009 signal caller throughout the entirety of the 2010 campaign.
In the Atlantic, Clemson rates as a favorite over Florida State because of the return of Kyle Parker. The Tigers – finally able to win their division last season – might become mentally liberated (and that would be a very new development for the program) under the leadership of Dabo Swinney, who certainly gets his players to buy whatever he’s selling. Florida State should finish a strong second, but there are still too many questions left on defense for this team.
Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma – The Sooners were decimated by injuries last year, but the good part of their struggles was found in the fact that Landry Jones was able to gain a lot of experience in the heat of gameday competition. That should pay off in 2010, since Jones will have much more experience than Texas’s new quarterback, Garrett Gilbert. If OU stays healthy, it should be able to (barely) outpace Texas in a brand new world bereft of Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford.
Nebraska is the overwhelming favorite to win the North. Missouri couldn’t beat the Huskers last year under optimal (football, not weather) conditions. Nebraska’s defense isn’t quite as strong as the 2009 edition was, but its offense can’t possibly be worse. Moreover, Mizzou must go to Memorial Stadium in Lincoln to take on Big Red. We’ll either get Nebraska-Oklahoma or Nebraska-Texas in the final Big 12 Championship Game (for now, at least). That will be a treat.
Big Ten Champion: Ohio State – Death, taxes, political corruption, the Yankees spending money, Ohio State winning Big Ten championships. It’s just part of nature. Penn State isn’t ready to win the league, so if the PSU-OSU axis of recent Big Ten power is to be derailed, only Iowa stands in the way, with Wisconsin having a puncher’s chance. Iowa will be in this race to the end because of Norm Parker, one of the five best defensive coordinators in the United States, but Terrelle Pryor should be sound enough to avoid huge mistakes and frustrate the Hawkeyes with his legs. Jim Tressel won the Rose Bowl last season, and now he has a lot of ammunition still in his holster. Why would you want to pick against this team? Why would you want to trust anyone else?
SEC Champion: Alabama – It’s not that the Tide are going to be better than they were in 2009; they won’t be. The defensive losses are substantial in Tuscaloosa, and this means the Tide will lose a regular-season game at some point this Autumn. However, they’ll probably still win the league. Auburn and Arkansas have tissue-soft defenses, LSU is sliding backwards, and the Mississippi schools will offer a blessed respite in the middle of the SEC slate. If the Crimson Tide encounter Florida for the third straight year in the SEC title game, the absence of a fellow named Tebow will deprive the Gators of the spiritual leadership which matters in a Southern holy war. Florida will cruise to the SEC East crown, but the Gators will find themselves lacking leverage against the balance and power of Bama’s veteran offense.
Pac-10 Champion: Oregon State – Oregon would have been the clear Rose Bowl favorite with Jeremiah Masoli in the lineup, but the loss of an athletic and devastatingly dynamic quarterback should hurt the Ducks considerably. The spread option is more reliant than most systems on a trigger man who can make slick and smart decisions in short time windows. If UO used a more traditional pro-set approach on offense, the departure of Masoli wouldn’t loom as large, but reality is reality.
Stanford will miss Toby Gerhart something fierce; he’s not a player who can be fully replaced, and the Cardinal might realize as much when they get to November without the ability to really grind down opposing defenses the way they did for much of 2009. Arizona is really intriguing as a title contender and has as much of a chance as anyone, but in this wide-open year for the conference (given USC’s ineligibility for the Rose Bowl), Oregon State is the choice. The Beavers might not make more with less – coach Mike Riley simply said at Pac-10 Media Day that “we feel like we do a good job of evaluating players” – but whatever the case may be, they maximize what they have. With USC and Oregon destroying ethical scales and police blotters respectively, an unfamiliar Rose Bowl ticket-puncher should emerge this year. Expect a crowded race and at least two conference losses throughout the league, but in the end, Oregon State – propelled by a Civil War win at home against Oregon – will own the last and biggest win of the conference season.
Heisman Trophy: Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State – Assessing the pure politics of the award and not the merits of the players involved, Pryor has the inside track. Jeremiah Masoli would have been a contender at Oregon, but he’s at Ole Miss instead. Matt Barkley isn’t a contender (again, politically speaking) because of everything that’s happened to USC. Texas and Oklahoma don’t figure to produce a Heisman contender, and we won’t likely see a Ndamukong Suh-like figure emerge on the scene this year. Ryan Williams of Virginia Tech is a blue collar worker bee, but then again, 2009 Heisman winner Mark Ingram was as well (I thought Suh deserved the Heisman last season). Speaking of Ingram, voters simply won’t spring for a back-to-back Heisman winner unless he blows away the field. There are lots of players who just don’t figure to enter into the race this year for various reasons.
The foremost contenders – the young men in Pryor’s way – are Ryan Mallett of Arkansas and Dion Lewis of Pittsburgh. Both young men should post huge numbers within potent offenses on teams that could grab conference championships and play on the first weekend of December to affirm their Heisman credentials. Ohio State has more name recognition plus the likelihood of participating in the BCS National Championship Game, so Pryor deserves the nod as a political matter. However, Mallett and Lewis will be right there with Pryor on the raw merits, and it will be interesting to see how the three players would stack up in early December.
The 10 BCS teams, as shown in the form of the five BCS bowl projections:
Fiesta: Pittsburgh-Oklahoma – With Texas very much in the running for an at-large berth (in a competition with Florida), the Longhorns would have to be slotted to the Sugar or the Orange. This would bump the Big East champion to suburban Phoenix, much as West Virginia did in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl versus Oklahoma.
Rose: Iowa-Oregon State – If Ohio State wins the Big Ten but then goes to the national title game, Iowa would be more than happy to snag a strong second-place finish in the league and exchange it for a trip to Pasadena for the first time since the 1990 season (and the 1991 Rose Bowl game). Oregon State fans would be even more excited about a trip to the Granddaddy. The Beavers haven’t played in this college football classic since the 1964 season (and the 1965 game).
Sugar: Texas-Alabama – Call this stale if you want (and there would be reason to do so), but the Superdome would be packed and Garrett Gilbert would get a second shot at Dixie’s Football Pride. The lack of a Colt McCoy injury letdown would enable this game to be appreciated on its own merits.
Orange: TCU-Virginia Tech – The Horned Frogs will run the table (yes, they’ll win at Utah, unlike 2008) and crash the BCS party once again. If the dominoes fall toward Texas nudging out Florida for an at-large BCS berth, TCU would likely go to Miami while the Longhorns stay closer to home in New Orleans. If, on the other hand, Florida beats out Texas, the Gators would play in Miami against the Hokies while TCU would go to the Sugar to play Alabama.
BCS National Championship Game: Boise State-Ohio State – If Boise State beats Virginia Tech on Labor Day, the Broncos will likely run the table. If the Broncos run the table, they’ll have a great chance to play for the whole ball of wax. Yes, I trust Boise – underrate the Broncos at your peril – to win its season opener and move forward from there. The Ohio State Buckeyes, under the firm and ever-consistent leadership of Jim Tressel, will stand on the opposite sideline in another desert duel for the crystal. Just like the last one (in 2007), the Scarlet and Gray will counter a team boasting Orange and Blue colors.
2010 National Champion: Ohio State – But hey, if the Buckeyes make the title game and lose, don’t you dare rip them, or I’m comin’ at you hard with a full-force flurry of fury.
Seriously, though, the Buckeyes’ win in the 2010 Rose Bowl over Oregon should remove the big-game jitters that did creep into the program over the past few seasons. If Ohio State gets to the big stage in the first month of 2011, expect a levelheaded performance from the Big Ten’s best team, and in championship games, poise tells so much of the story.
Biggest Surprise: N.C. State – Few people, if any, are expecting much of anything from a Tom O’Brien-coached team. That’s when Tom O’Brien-coached teams do well. It’s when they’re saddled with a boatload of expectations that they crumble. Russell Wilson is still playing quarterback in Raleigh, no? That’s why this team has a chance to rise in an ACC Atlantic where only Clemson looks particularly solid.
Biggest Disappointment: Cincinnati – The college football world is about to learn just how valuable Brian Kelly really is… in South Bend, yes, but also in Southwestern Ohio.